Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 20% | 40% | 33% | 73% | 70% | 100% | |
| Sample Size | 5 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 57 |
Predictions by Frank
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Julia Gillard will win the next federal election. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 month ago; known in 5 months.
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r.org traffic will start to increase again in july 2010 ( 72% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 month ago; known in 17 days.
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the chick from big is not the blond chick from weeds ( 70% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 month ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 month ago.
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Will crack 100,000 visits in June ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank 2 months ago; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Frank 12 days ago.
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reach 600 facebook fans by June 25th ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Frank 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 month ago.
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Sunday 2nd may will have more than 2000 visitors ( 65% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by mario1 2 months ago.
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none of our boxes shipped home will go missing ( 85% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known 28 days ago; judged right by Frank 3 days ago.
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We will buy the house we are looking at. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by Frank 3 months ago.
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Will crack 250,000 pageviews in may ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by Frank 2 months ago.
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Colin will not come over tonight ( 85% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged right by Frank 3 months ago.
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Neither angelina joli nor brad pitt will die in the next 12 months ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known in 11 months.
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Sunday traffic next week with be >2000 ( 73% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by Frank 3 months ago.
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reach 500 facebook fans by may 10st ( 80% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by Frank 2 months ago.
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Radiopaedia will reach 3 million pageviews by 15th June 2010 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Frank 5 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by Matt about 1 month ago.
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the bub will be a boy ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank 6 months ago; known 4 months ago; judged right by Frank 4 months ago.
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combined iphone app sales for November > 250 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank 8 months ago; known 7 months ago; judged right by Frank 7 months ago.
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I will end up working at RMH before the end of 2010 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank 10 months ago; known in 5 months.
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Radiopaedia’s visitor traffic will reach 100K/month before Sept 2010 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Frank 10 months ago; known in 3 months.
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Volume 2: iphone App will sell 1000 copies in the first month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Frank 10 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged wrong by Frank 8 months ago.
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Will finish rewriting all Amirsys articles by now ( 50% confidence )
Created by Frank 11 months ago; known 11 months ago; judged right by Frank 11 months ago.
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14237090 (same as the one before with wrong number) atypical meningioma ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 year ago.
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13237090 atypical meningioma or dural met ( 95% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago.
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bugger… 11999570 = meningioma ( 80% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Lina about 1 year ago.
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It will not demonstrate a lot of enhancement ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 year ago.
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What I am about to look at will be intraxial on next MRI ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 year ago.
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Nat will be paged after midnight ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 year ago.
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orbital mass = malignant non lymphoma ( 70% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago.
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13333001 = chordoma or chondrosarcom ( 85% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by Frank about 1 year ago.
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14721148 = TB ( 50% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 year ago.
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14721148 = scc node or infective node ( 95% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 year ago.
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14721148 = scc node or infective node ( 95% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago.
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14743632 = mengioma ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by Frank about 1 year ago.
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case just now lymphoma ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right about 1 year ago.
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case just now ADEM, Lymphoma, Mets ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right about 1 year ago.
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14733648 = gangliocytoma ( 50% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 year ago.
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14733648 = gangliocytoma ( 50% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago.
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14733648 = glioma of some kind ( 95% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by Frank about 1 year ago.
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14840002 = pap thyroid to node ( 65% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right about 1 year ago.
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14840002 = TB or Pap T4 to nodes ( 95% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right about 1 year ago.
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14546870 = scc of rt scm node ( 70% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong about 1 year ago.
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MRN 14751956 adenoid cystic carcinoma of the lacrimal gland ( 64% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 year ago.
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14749874 = cystic meningioma ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right about 1 year ago.
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HIV pt = viral leukoenchephalitis ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago.
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same HIV = VZV ( 25% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 year ago.
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7370034 = met ( 75% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right about 1 year ago.
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I will be called to go into hospital between midnight today and 6am tomorrow. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged wrong about 1 year ago.
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7381792 = meningioma ( 95% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong about 1 year ago.
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I will be called in for an angiogram between 8pm and 8 am in the next 3 nights ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged wrong about 1 year ago.
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my bike will be ready to be picked up on time ( 80% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged right about 1 year ago.
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7377330 = meningioma, or haemangiopericytoma ( 75% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago.
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6994767 right temp mass will not be a tumour when resected ( 55% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong about 1 year ago.
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7381437 will turn out to be an acoustic schwannoma ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago.
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both pineal lesions from last week will turn out to be germinomas on histology ( 65% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged wrong about 1 year ago.
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pbook will not be released to the web by xmas 08 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Trainor over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by Matt about 1 year ago.
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Gerrit will return with new (and proably metrosexual) facial hair ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged right about 1 year ago.
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of the 7 herbs etc planted, at least 6 will survive and thrive ( 80% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right about 1 year ago.
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I will be called to go into hospital between midnight today and 6am tomorrow. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged wrong about 1 year ago.
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The world will not end when the LHC is activated ( 100% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged right about 1 year ago.
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that mass I saw today will turn out to be a cystic meningioma on histology ( 75% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong about 1 year ago.
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Obama will be the next US president. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Lina over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by Glenn about 1 year ago.
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It will take you until at least next Friday to get an input mask into the percentage field. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged wrong about 1 year ago.
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Excess bagage delivered by end of week (friday) ( 75% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged wrong about 1 year ago.
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Despite much reading I will be unable to speed up my PS3’s web browsing ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged right about 1 year ago.
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ASX will finish above 5440 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged wrong about 1 year ago.