Predictions by freyley

• Someone will explain, in this prediction perhaps, how there are 623 known predictions in the statistics, but only 700 predictions sitewide, and there are way more than 100 unknown predictions. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-23; known on 2009-11-06; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-06.

• There will be more than 1000 PB predictions before Fri. Oct. 23, 2009. There are ~ 650 @ 6PM PDT, Sun. Oct. 18. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-10-23.

• Generic molecular assemblers won’t be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don’t come from bulk chemistry. ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.

• The current (10/21/09) predictionbook UI, with the right/wrong/unknown above the certainty/comments section, will still be sufficiently similar (and similarly bad) by 12/01/2009 that people mistakenly judging predictions will still happen at least three t ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-22; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by NineteenHalves on 2009-12-03.

• A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.

• The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.

• Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to notice (upset stomach) from the Hedgehog mushroom Shana found. ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-22; judged wrong by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21.

• Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to have to go to the doctor from eating the hedgehog mushroom Shana found. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-22; judged wrong by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21.

• The kittens will still have giardia. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-10.

• The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• If the Public Option passes, it will cost at least $400/month for the 25-35 bracket to join it by a year after it opens. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19.

• If the Democratic Health Reform plan passes, private, group insurance premiums will increase more than 30% by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2015-10-19.

• There will be a public option in the upcoming health reform ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2010-07-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2011-11-02.

• There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 7% confidence; 30 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.

• Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.

• The world will end in 2012 ( 18% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Martin Chase on 2009-11-17.

• There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• Monica will live in a different zipcode in 2014. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-15; known on 2014-10-15.

• The recession will end this year ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.