Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 80% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
Predictions by ggreer
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“Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.
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California’s Proposition 19 will be approved. (This doesn’t cover legal action after the election, just that it gets a simple majority.) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ggreer on 2010-09-30; known on 2010-11-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-03.
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The Dow will close under 8,000 (in Oct. 2009 dollars) before Dec. 31st, 2010. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tommccabe on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 31% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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Why The Lucky Stiff will proffer an explanation for his absence in the next year. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2010-10-15.
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There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.
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“By 2020, an Earth-like habitable extrasolar planet is detected.” —Kevin ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-01.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by ggreer on 2010-09-30.