Predictions by Glenn

• Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.

• ‘We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.’ —Jason Calacanis ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2011-05-17.

• I will spend most of Friday (20%t) on PBook ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-11-01.

• I will end up working at RMH before the end of 2010 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Frank on 2009-09-25; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-09-16.

• Radiopaedia’s visitor traffic will reach 100K/month before Sept 2010 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Frank on 2009-09-25; known on 2010-11-16; judged right by Frank on 2010-09-16.

• I will spend less than 80% of my time at work being purely meta or purely meta-meta (or any purely meta^n) ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-10-04; judged right by Glenn on 2009-10-05.

• OB will go live on AWS this week ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-27; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.

• LW will go up (as a demo, not live) on AWS this week ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-27; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.

• I will be on Oktoberfest saturday ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Tom on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-26; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-28.

• we will have finished the search filter implementation on Kando by Thursday ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by captainpete on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-24; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-27.

• Volume 2: iphone App will sell 1000 copies in the first month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Frank on 2009-09-22; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by Frank on 2009-11-02.

• Padding my 100% with almost nonsense predictions will be frowned upon by the less enlightened ( 79% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-24.

• I have already made predictions in predictionbook ( 100% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-15; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-15.

• Radiopaedia will go live on or before Wed next week (week beginning 21 Sep) ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Wes on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-24; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-24.

• My PB chart (http://bit.ly/nV7rV) will still look very embarrassing at the end of the week. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.

• I will have tests running against aws by the end of today. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by jon on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-14; judged right by jon on 2009-09-15.

• I will have written and submitted my Trike profile ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by captainpete on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.

• I will have adapted to subconsiously use caps lock instead of backspace (or ctrl-h) by this time next week ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-20; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-15.

• We will have another Plandeliver client (verbal agreement) by the end of the week ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Tom on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-21.

• Editing an order in plandeliver will be live at the end of today ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Tom on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-14; judged right by Tom on 2009-09-15.

• I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-13; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-12.

• I will learn touch typing and start using it in half of my typing ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by tansel on 2009-09-09; known on 2009-09-23; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-24.

• At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Sunday ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-13; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-09-14.

• we’ll have implemented free-text searching by selectable filters (new approach) ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by captainpete on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-14.

• I will work Friday ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-11; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-11.

• We will start working on the MyOB integration at Kando ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-14.

• Kando will be live first of december ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-12-01.

• I will have closed all the currently open podshifter tickets relating to broken feeds ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-09-07.

• Round 2 of the Radiopaedia redesign integration will be completed ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Wes on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-07.

• we’ll be experimenting with meat-spaced project management system ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by captainpete on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-07.

• we’ll have finished refactoring variants into products ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by captainpete on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged right by captainpete on 2009-09-07.

• it is not possible to get url_for to not escape (url_encode) the parameter i.e. with “url_for(:action => ‘foo’, :bar => ‘http://www.google.com’)” , the :bar parameter. ( 35% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-06-30; known on 2009-06-30.

• Config (short for configuration) will appear in the Merriam Webster dictionary as proper word ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-06-24; known on 2014-06-24.

• this will email me at 15:10 and will link to pbook.dev.trike.com.au ( 69% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-05-13; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-13.

• ▀█▀ █▬█ █ ▄▄█▀▀ ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-05-13.

• these two machines are the same deployment ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-12; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-12.

• glenn will find this prediction today and tell me if there is any way to search all predictions ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Lina on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-13; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-12.

• prediction book will go live at predictionbook.com today ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Lina on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-13; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-05-13.

• Creating a prediction in IE7 on XP VM will work ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-05-11; known on 2009-05-11; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-11.

• I will be in england before podshifter gets restyled. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Adam on 2009-02-19; known on 2009-04-19; judged right by Matt on 2009-04-30.

• the aws-s3 refactor of podshifter will successfully upload the converted mp3 to s3 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Adam on 2008-11-12; known on 2008-11-12; judged right by Adam on 2008-11-12.

• Implement conditional get/caching of processed feed in pod shifter by 12pm thursday ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Adam on 2008-11-05; known on 2008-11-06; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-11-06.

• Removing GA, readding Prototype. Preview will work. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-10-23; known on 2008-10-24; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-24.

• removing prototype.js will make preview work on dentalcorp ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-10-23; known on 2008-10-23; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-23.

• I pushed ( 100% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-10-06; known on 2008-10-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-06.

• rails partial name scheme for namespaced models will be views/namespace/classname/_classname ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Adam on 2008-09-26; known on 2008-09-26; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-29.

• the proposed 24 week abortions legislation will pass unchanged through government ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2008-11-24; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-14.

• Despite his best efforts, Matt will not still be alive ( 100% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2108-09-24; judged unknown by Glenn on 2008-09-26.

• The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2012-03-22; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• The overall microsoft ad campaign will improve the Vista perception ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Lina on 2008-09-20; known on 2009-03-20; judged wrong by crlosg2 on 2009-06-01.

• “Notify me when someone responds” will be working again by the end of this week ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2008-09-26; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-27.

• Extremist confusionists will not be able to prevent LHC collisions – even given they now have until our Autumn next year ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2009-11-09; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• notification of comments and wagers will inform me ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2008-09-22; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-22.

• “less words” can be considered correct grammar ( 55% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-22; known on 2008-09-22; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-22.

• The lyrics to electric feel are “spin me like an electric drill” not “shock me like an electric eel” ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-22; known on 2008-09-22; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-22.

• private predictions will be secret ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Adam on 2008-09-19; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-19.

• User publish default settings will work ( 79% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-18.

• UnPublished predictions will show in user pages ( 86% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-18.

• UnPublished predictions won’t show in any happenstance ( 89% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-18.

• Published predictions will be published ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-18.

• This deploy will work ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-18.

• Buying index funds today (S&P at 4552) would be a good investment ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by AndyAlterEgo on 2008-09-18; known on 2009-03-18; judged wrong by AndyAlterEgo on 2009-03-18.

• our changes worked ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-17; known on 2008-09-17; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-17.

• Wagerable is a word ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-17; known on 2008-09-17; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-17.

• IngDirect will be back up by tomorrow ( 68% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-17; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-17.

• Without participating in a clinical trial, there is no legally available ‘fire-and-forget’ male contraceptive (pill, patch, injection etc.) ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-10-16; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-24.

• Next time I get breath tested, I’m going to ask to see my reading. The police person won’t like it. ( 73% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2010-09-16; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-06.

• Adam, Gerrit and Matt didn’t know that you can remove a processor from the Mac Pro and save over $700 ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-17; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-17.

• There will not be a 2009 season of ‘Make Me a Supermodel’ ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2009-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• I won’t have to read the manual to set up the monitor ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-16; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-16.

• This will not email me if i say yes then say no ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2008-09-09; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-09.

• The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 100% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.

• The world will not end when the first LHC beam is injected on 10th September ( 100% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2008-09-10; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-11.

• Despite Federal takeover, ‘Fannie Mae’ and ‘Freddie Mac’ will become insolvent, and ultimately bankrupt ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• Emailing me will /not/ reproduce the nillify blank bug ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2008-09-08; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-08.

• This will email me within 10 minutes ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2008-09-08; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-08.

• I will be able to reproduce the nillify blank bug ( 45% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2008-09-08; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-08.

• This prediction will post ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-06; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-06.

• Unchecked response won’t want to send me an email ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-06; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-06.

• Unchecked won’t want to send me an email ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-06; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-06.

• Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 4 hours ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.

• Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 8 hours ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.

• Saying no now, and yes later to an email will work ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-05.

• The circles drawn by the google scatter plot are not quite accurate. the 48% points are above the 50 line ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Adam on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-05; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.

• This will redirect me back to recent instead of the old table view ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-04.

• There will be no traffic mishaps on the Westgate between 9:30 and 10am tomorrow morning ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.

• There will be no traffic mishaps on the journey home ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.

• dave & michelle will be pregnant with in one year of being married. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Miyo on 2008-08-26; known on 2009-08-26; judged wrong by Miyo on 2009-08-26.

• Billabong shares will climb from $11.30 to over $13.50 within 6 months ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Andrew on 2008-08-23; known on 2009-02-23; judged right by Andrew on 2008-10-06.

• Skinny jeans will last for no more than 18 months ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Lina on 2008-08-26; known on 2010-02-26; judged wrong by cointelligence on 2010-02-28.

• John Farnham will have another come back tour in Australia within 2 years. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Miyo on 2008-08-27; known on 2010-08-27; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• Apophis will not hit earth ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Gerrit on 2008-08-25; known on 2029-05-16; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• Matt will be happy he will no longer be able to be instantly Rick rolled ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-16; known on 2008-08-23; judged right on 2008-08-16.

• this will format kinda ( 90% confidence; 10 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-16; known on 2008-08-16; judged right on 2008-08-17.

• prologue is to epilogue as preface is to postface ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-15; known on 2008-08-29; judged right on 2008-08-16.

• crontab will work ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-15; known on 2008-08-15; judged wrong on 2008-08-15.

• a confidence of 0 will break ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-14; judged wrong on 2008-08-14.

• a prediction with a confidence of 0 will break pbook and i’ll have to fix it manually ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-14; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-08-26.

• 1337 is Lupus ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2011-08-14; judged wrong on 2008-08-15.

• this will NOT email me when i tickle it. yet ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-15; judged right on 2008-08-14.

• this will email me a reminder when i tickle it ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-14; judged right on 2008-08-14.

• The CrmHub api will allow all license keys to be retreived using an email address ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Adam on 2008-08-11; known on 2008-08-12; judged wrong on 2008-08-11.

• The CrmHub api will allow the license key to be checked with only license key as input ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Adam on 2008-08-11; known on 2008-08-12; judged wrong on 2008-08-11.

• people find it more difficult to cope with the loss of a hand than the loss of a foot ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-04; known on 2008-08-04.

• the human eye is at its full size at birth ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-04; known on 2008-08-04; judged wrong on 2008-08-04.

• pbook will need some type of legal disclaimer (i.e. privacy policy, user agreement) on signup within a year ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-03; known on 2009-08-03; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-08-03.

• this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor 2 days ago.

• Using ✔ and ✘ on the main page (though not the user page) is elitist behaviour that will be destroyed within a week. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 2008-08-09; judged wrong on 2008-08-14.

• People will wonder why it has the form for creating a prediction when you’re not logged in ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-06; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• Robbie Rotten’s plans will once again be thwarted ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-31; known on 2008-08-02; judged right on 2008-08-02.

• We will finish user accounts by 5pm ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• Against what I’ve always throught, I (Glenn) am primarily protanomalous, not deuteranomalous. ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-28; known on 2008-07-27; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2009-11-11; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.

• not being able to comment on your own prediction is silly ( 90% confidence; 12 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-30; known on 2008-02-15; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• this will be the most important prediction EVER ( 100% confidence; 8 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-30; known on 2008-07-31; judged right on 2008-08-16.

• Mailer logging will take < 4 hours ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-30; known on 2008-08-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• I will be called to go into hospital between midnight today and 6am tomorrow. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Frank on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-17; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Adam on 2008-07-18; known on 2038-07-18; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-11-07.

• Electrodrive will post 2 new news items a month for the rest of the year ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Lina on 2008-07-16; known on 2009-01-01; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-14.

• 1AUD will be worth greater than 1USD before the year is out ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2009-01-01; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-01-08.

• the 2010 bug will strike again before it is fixed ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2018-07-16; judged right on 2008-08-18.

• I will be called in for an angiogram between 8pm and 8 am in the next 3 nights ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Frank on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-18; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• there will be stupid kneejerk legislation in response to the child dying on his bmx at the skatepark ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-18; known on 2008-07-13; judged wrong on 2008-08-18.

• After releuctantly joining Facebook, I will end up with over 25 friend requests within the first week. Unsolicited. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Andrew on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-23; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• matt will come into work tomorrow wearing, yet again, one of those sleavless jacket things ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-17; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• we will have a judged 100% prediction by the end of today ( 100% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-16; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• when I write jan 1st 2010 it stores as 1st January 2010 ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2009-01-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• Between 20 and 40% of friend requests will be from people that I don’t really want as friends (but I awkwardly accept anyway) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Andrew on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-23; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• we will finish our end of austhink (sans non-bogus gateways) ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-17; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• this prediction is wrong ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-16; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• I’ll be able to convince Westpac to handle Ruth’s account changes without going to the branch ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Matt on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-07-21; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• interpreting 2010 as a 8:10pm (as a bug) will not be fixed for ages ( 100% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-08-06; judged right on 2008-08-18.

• I will be able to use Facebook for some mild professional benefit within the next 6 months ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Andrew on 2008-07-16; known on 2009-01-16; judged right by Andrew on 2009-10-19.

• i was born ( 100% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 1983-11-03; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• this prediction will be ‘judged’ as wrong ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 1958-07-16; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• My account details from HSBC will arrive before the end of the week ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Adam on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-07-19; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• ambiguous (and proably contradictorily worded) predictions will have some means of ‘in app’ resolution ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-08-16; judged wrong on 2008-08-16.

• Google will buy Twitter by 2010 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by thephilosiraptor on 2010-01-01.

• failed posting as a new name reverts to session stored name will be fixed by end of friday ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-20; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• Authorize.Net will be the first gateway to return my enquiry with any useful information ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Adam on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-21; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• Generation Kill won’t have quite the same depth of story as The Wire ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Adam on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-08-30; judged right by Adam on 2008-08-27.

• typing 100 years from now as a result date will no longer crash the server ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-20; judged right on 2008-08-18.

• blockquote bq. tags will break rendering ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-07; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• Despite much reading I will be unable to speed up my PS3’s web browsing ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Frank on 2008-07-02; known on 2008-07-16; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• Textile links render correctly ( 10% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-07; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• modelling and design of bed base will take 15hrs ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Kenji on 2008-07-08; known on 2008-07-18; judged wrong on 2008-08-18.

• multi line predictions will render multiline = = / _____ \ / _____ \ .-‘_____’-.—————————————-.-‘_____’-. / | | ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-07; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• Matt won’t use his own website for the next 3 days ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Adam on 2008-07-13; known on 2008-07-16; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• starting a line with blockquote will break rendering ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-07; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• Two of my three ebay listings will have a bid by Thursday 10pm ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Miyo on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-10; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• this weekend will not work as a result date ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-13; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• we will need pagination on the front page ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Adam on 2008-07-09; known on 2008-08-09; judged wrong on 2008-08-16.

• austhink payment will be done by wednesday ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Adam on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-09; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• first test paypal payment through austhink refactor will fail with an mildly new error message ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Adam on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-07-15; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• images will render inline ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-07; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• Trike staff will eat all the chocolates and raise money for charity ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Chantelle on 2008-07-10; known on 2008-07-24; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• solid description formatting will be implemented by this weekend ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-13; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• There will be more than 10,000 predictions on pbook by end 08. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Lina on 2008-06-20; known on 2009-01-01; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-01-08.

• austhink payment will be done by end of 4 day week ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Adam on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-11; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• the prediction with the dancing banana will annoy Matt ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-07; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• The iphone wont sell out today ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Lina on 2008-07-10; known on 2008-07-11; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• code tags will break rendering ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-07; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• Obama will be the next US president. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Lina on 2008-06-29; known on 2008-11-08; judged right by Glenn on 2008-11-05.

• pbook will not be released to the web by xmas 08 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Trainor on 2008-06-20; known on 2008-12-30; judged right by Matt on 2009-01-14.

• austhink credit credit and paypal payment will be published live ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-09; known on 2008-08-09; judged wrong on 2008-08-16.

• <FONT color=“#ffffff” size=“+1”><MARQUEE bgcolor=“#000080” direction=“right” loop=“20” width=“75%”><STRONG>Marquee’s will work</STRONG></MARQUEE></FONT> ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-07; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• Gerrit will return with new (and proably metrosexual) facial hair ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Frank on 2008-07-14; known on 2008-07-23; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• blockquote bq. tags will break rendering ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-07; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• There will be 3 significant stock market dips in 2008 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Andrew on 2008-07-01; known on 2009-01-01; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-14.

• Quiksilver shares will finish the year above $11 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Andrew on 2008-07-01; known on 2008-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew on 2009-07-04.

• My 6’0" will feel way better with DHD-2’s rather than K2.1’s ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Andrew on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-18; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• <BLINK>Blink tag will work</BLINK> ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-07; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• I will be called to go into hospital between midnight today and 6am tomorrow. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Frank on 2008-07-14; known on 2008-07-15; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• The world will not end when the LHC is activated ( 100% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-04; known on 2008-07-08; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• Per distance travelled, aeroplanes result in less fatalities than helicopters ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-04; known on 2008-07-04; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• Our deploy of shared predictions will happen without fault ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Adam on 2008-07-04; known on 2008-07-04; judged right on 2008-08-01.