Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 82% | 91% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 329 | 500 | 420 | 338 | 532 | 90 | 2209 |
Most recent predictions by gwern
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern 7 days ago; known on 2026-10-07.
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SR: the user 'redandwhite' was a government agent. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known 10 days ago.
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The Kim Kardashian kidnap/heist story is completely or mostly false. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by bendini 11 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by two2thehead 4 days ago.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and not conceited ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and conceited ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-17.
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Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.
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When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019 ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01.
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Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2016-02-03; known in 26 days; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Carly Fiorina will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2016-01-30; known in 25 days; judged wrong by bobpage on 2016-02-11.
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The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election ( 28% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2016-01-30; known in 25 days; judged wrong by bobpage on 2016-07-05.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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9fd811e61b18aa0228a6da4610bbd4de96f69f0e1dd77eeb68d182862f925780 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-07; known on 2015-10-25.
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NGE: 4.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Stay Here” ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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Rothfuss's The Doors of Stone (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2019-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by what is recognizably Anno ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by a character ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: conditional on there being any live-action, it will be in 4.0. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 is not a conventional Eva, and has already been seen in 1.0 or 2.0 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 and will be two separate units linked to one pilot ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be a MP-style Eva ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Rei ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Lilith ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will see combat but be quickly destroyed ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be destroyed or scrapped or reused before any combat ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in 4.0 ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Shinji will die, permanently, and not transcend or continue to exist in some sense ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by a Magi ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mana from Girlfriend of Steel ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Rei ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mari ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Touji ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Asuka ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 06 is Adam ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 05 was Tunniel ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 08 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 07 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will related to the capture of NERV and extraction of Shinji ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be Lilith (shrunken) and not Eva-01 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be used against NERV ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be piloted by Asuka ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The MP Evas will appear in 3.0 or 4.0 ( 70% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is really working for a NERV branch ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to just SEELE's plans & has links to Gendo ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to NERV & SEELE's plans ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE & is the head of SEELE ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is conspiring with Kaji ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is the daughter of Asuka & Shinji from an 'original' EoE-verse ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually an autonomous part of Asuka Soryu Langley, with Asuka Shikinami being the other half ( 3% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually a disguised Asuka Soryu Langley ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually Asuka Soryu Langley in some sense ( 8% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is some sort of 'False Child' which has covertly replaced another one ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is part-Russian or has connections to Russia ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva and specifically Eva-07 ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva ( 2% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is a angel/human hybrid ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is an animal/human hybrid ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is a clone of Naoko Akagi ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is a straight metaphysically normal human and nothing else ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will say 'anta baka?' ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari marked for death by SEELE at some point ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: a Mari x Shinji ending ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Shinji will kill Gendo ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Shinji is a full Angel a la Re-Take (not a human-angel hybrid) ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka will pilot an Eva against the MP Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on MP Evas appearing ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over and Shinji is forced to kill her ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka will be employed by SEELE against NERV or Shinji ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka vs. Shinji death-fight ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka and Shikinami is then disposed of ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life & the original Adam reduced to embryonic form (akin to NGE TV) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The 4 pilots (Shinji, Asuka, Mari, Rei) each have a piece of Adam's soul in addition to their own, with Kaworu having the main piece ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The Final Angel is EoE-Shogoki (and not Kaworu) ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar is neither a Lance nor Seed of Life, but a literal key which activates some piece of FAR technology ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The coffins on the moon each contain or contained an Angel. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: There are precisely 4 white/black moons, 1 for each FAR depicted in flashbacks to 2I ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: There are more than 2 white/black moons involved ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will appear in EoE-Asuka-style eye/arm bandages ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: By the end of 4.0, the Earth's oceans will be blue (and full of life) and not red & lifeless ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: 4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, but each universe is causally connected (by Kaworu or Shinji or another character) ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: There will be a fifth movie (an animation >40min) after 4.0. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Both 3.0 and 4.0 will be released in the US by Funimation ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Anno will return to employment at Gainax and also to the Gainax board of directors after Rebuild. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Hideaki Anno will return to employment at Gainax after Rebuild. ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Studio Khara will be dissolved or substantially cease operations after completing Rebuild. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild Gendo is Kaworu's genetic father ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-15; known on 2018-01-01.
