Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 44% | 64% | 71% | 83% | 92% | 96% | |
| Sample Size | 223 | 346 | 280 | 223 | 329 | 67 | 1468 |
Most recent predictions by gwern
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Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 3 days ago; known on 2050-01-16.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NancyLebovitz 3 days ago; known on 2018-05-19.
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Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker about 24 hours ago; known on 2040-01-01.
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Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tuxedage 11 days ago; known on 2035-01-01.
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'Abigail Boyd' will respond with a link or other form of an auction website instead of a real offer. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern 13 days ago; known on 2013-07-16.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker 19 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Larry Page will survive 5 years as Google CEO ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker 19 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Google Translate will survive 5 years ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-03; judged unknown by Theolonius 18 days ago.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 100% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-03.
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Google Project Glass will survive 5 years ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-03.
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Google Voice will survive 5 more years ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Google Scholar will survive 5 more years ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Google+ will survive 5 more years ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Google Gmail will survive 5 more years ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Google's FeedBurner will survive 5 more years ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Google Docs will survive 5 more years ( 95% confidence )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Google Calendar will survive 5 more years ( 95% confidence )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Google Blogger will survive 5 more years ( 80% confidence )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Google Analytics will survive 5 more years ( 97% confidence )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Google Alerts will survive 5 more years ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Google AdSense will survive 5 more years. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2018-05-02.
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Bitcoin may means-revert ~$10/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known in about 2 hours.
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Bitcoin to hit ~$20/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known in about 2 hours.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 62% confidence; 17 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged right by a0c4a123f7 27 days ago.
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The Supreme Court will overturn the ability to patent genes. ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-14; known on 2014-01-01.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 55% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15.
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BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01.
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BTC hits $500 within the year ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01.
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 31% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01.
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Now that Goodreads has been acquired by Amazon, “I doubt it will survive in its current form for more than 2 years.” — Joey Hess ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-04-01; known on 2015-04-01.
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BTC hits $100 within the year ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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Zeo Inc will be sold, taken private, dissolve or go bankrupt in 2013. ( 75% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01.
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Scott, of Slate Star Codex, will land his residency ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by torekp on 2013-03-01; known in 10 days; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-11.
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C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will hit Mars ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-02; known on 2014-11-01.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $45.00 in the next 30 days. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-05; known on 2013-04-04; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-06.
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MetaMed to face legal challenges from regulators by 2016 (S.T. Rev via Twitter). ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-05; known on 2016-01-01.
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Alex Jones will be implicated in a sex scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01.
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Alex Jones will be implicated in an illicit drug scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01.
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The price of bitcoins exceeds $35 on mtgox in the next 30 days. ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-03-24; judged right by nanotube on 2013-03-04.
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XiXi: 6 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 4 ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 5 ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 3 ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 2 ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 1 ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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Silk Road: there will have been a bust (>10 named defendants) related to forged IDs eg. driver's licenses, linked to the SR vendor KingOfClubs ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-25; known on 2015-03-31.
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China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 8% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Nic_Smith 11 days ago.
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Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known on 2020-01-01.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01.
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Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $20/BTC at the end of 2013. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2014-01-01.
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Apple share price to stay below $700 during 2013. ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01.
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North Korea to conduct a nuclear test in 2013. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-12.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2013 ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 8% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.
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Eric Schmidt will get nominated for a position in the Obama administration in the year 2013 ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-12-31.
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In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists. ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01.
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My blog (http://tuxedage.wordpress.com/) will exceed 100k words in length by the end of 2013. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31.
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I will not be able to get a girlfriend before the end of 2013. ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31.
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There will be a 3Dmovie made of the Odyssey within three years. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-12-29; known on 2015-12-28.
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Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nadanate on 2012-11-13; known on 2020-12-31.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 71% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2020-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2015. ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2015-01-01.
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The prophecy in HPMR refers to Harry and Death, not Harry and Voldemort. ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-23; known on 2015-01-01.
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I will complete Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, Among Thieves, and Drake's Deception for PS3 in Spanish before 2014. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-12-19; known on 2014-01-01.
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At least one more GNU project maintainer publicly resigns, citing similar reasons as the gnutls and sed maintainers. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2012-12-23; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by tedks on 2013-02-01.
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Donna Tam, news.com: Amazon smartphone in 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-27; known on 2013-12-31.
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Logos01 will no longer be at his job within 3 months (inclusive of resignations, firings, etc.) ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-27; known on 2013-03-27; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-30.
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HPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship. ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-06-27.
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In HPMOR, it will turn out to be the case that Lockheart was at some point in the past (that is to say before the events of chapter 86) possessed by Voldemort's spirit. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-17; known on 2014-01-01.
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In HPMOR, Voldemort is/was at some point in the form of a disembodied spirit. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-18; known on 2014-01-01.
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Aronwall will publically state that he drops his belief in Christianity after discussing his belief on his blog with other rationalists before the end of 2013. (See http://lesswrong.com/lw/fyt/wanted_rationalist_pushback/) ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-21; known on 2013-12-31.
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gwern.net total traffic will average >2000 daily visits in the week a year from now ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-17.
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gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-17.
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>=1 Longecity users will claim my (swapped) sets of iodine eye photographs will reveal a lightening trend of my iris. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-05.
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GB/$ of Flash/SSD=hard-drives in or by 2016 —William Hertling ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-26; known on 2017-01-01.
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HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within 2 years ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-16; known on 2014-11-16.
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HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within a year. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-16; known on 2013-11-16.
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Assassination Classroom: Kerosensei will be revealed to be ill or dying (target date a year from the start) ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-08; known on 2015-11-08.
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HP MoR: chapter 100 will, after 7 days, have 66-383 reviews posted on FF.net ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-04; known on 2014-01-01.
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DNB/nicotine day 37: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-04; known on 2012-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-04.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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Rossi's energy black box actually harnesses a third type of nuclear reaction ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30; known on 2013-12-31.
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Obama will win Ohio ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Romney will win Florida ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will win Colorado ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Romney will win Iowa ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 72% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31.
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HP MoR: chapter 100 will, after 1 month, have 215-792 reviews posted on FF.net ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2014-01-01.
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My application for Y Combinator will be good enough to get me an interview. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ggreer on 2012-11-03; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by ggreer on 2012-11-16.
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Geoff Greer & co's YC application will result in an interview. ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2013-01-03.
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DNB/nicotine day 36: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2012-11-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-03.