Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Predictions by im
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 8% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by ledflyd 9 months ago.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 11 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by Martin Chase 9 months ago.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 21 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max 11 months ago; known in 3 months; judged unknown by gwern 12 days ago.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 72% confidence; 37 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by MBlume 11 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 9 months ago.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 25 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb 11 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by Morendil 10 months ago.
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There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Arenamontanus 11 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Arenamontanus 11 months ago; known in over 9 years.
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I will have completed my topology homework by the end of the weekend. ( 60% confidence )
Created by im 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by im 10 months ago.
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I will be entirely caught up on grading by the end of the weekend. ( 85% confidence )
Created by im 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by im 10 months ago.
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I’ll have made 100 predictions on prediction book by the end of the month ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 11 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by anonym 10 months ago.
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World-wide Search-Engine Market-Share: Bing & Microsoft will replace yahoo in the #2 spot for a prolonged period (Minimum of 1 week). ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts about 1 year ago; known 11 months ago; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts 10 months ago.
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There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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Generic AI won’t happen in the next 10 years. ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by bogdanb 11 months ago; known in over 9 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rwallace 11 months ago; known in over 29 years; judged unknown by freyley 10 months ago.