Predictions by isaacn16

• “California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• WTI Oil front month (96 US$ today) will go lower and reach 50 US$ by the end of 2012 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by herb on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• I will get over an 80 on my USH test I took last week ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-12-20.

• “Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by falenas108 30 days ago.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 33% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-04.

• The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-04.

• I will score above an 85 on my USH test ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by isaacn16 on 2011-11-13.

• I will get over a 79 on my Biology test ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by isaacn16 on 2011-11-09.

• I will get over a 90 on all 3 of my upcoming tests this week (Math, Biology, US History) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-11-20.

• Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 80% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.

• The U.S. economy will not be back to 6% or less unemployment until 2018. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by maverickmath on 2011-10-18; known on 2018-12-31.

• “I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.” ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01.

• “Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30.

• Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.

• I will go to the gym in the next 30 minutes ( 80% confidence )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-17; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-10-18.

• Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by maverickmath on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged unknown by JRMayne on 2011-10-11.

• I will go to the gym 3 times by Saturday ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-10-22.

• I will go to the gym tomorrow ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-18; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-10-18.

• I will formally quit Cross Country by the end of the week ( 80% confidence )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-10-22.

• My practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by isaacn16 on 2011-12-15.

• A new US Political party will come to power by 2020 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-01; known on 2020-11-16.

• Sweatshops will be regarded as an essential step to modern prosperity by 2015 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-01; known on 2015-01-16.

• The personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020. ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2020-01-01.

• AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01.

• My next full practice SAT score will be over 2050 ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-01; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17.

• I will score over a 2200 on my March 2012 SAT ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-03-20; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2012-02-28.

• Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.

• The world will end in 2012 ( 18% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Martin Chase on 2009-11-17.

• The 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax. ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by seansman15@hotmail.com on 2011-03-23; known on 2012-12-23.