Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Predictions by ka
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Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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Barack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-04.
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The St Louis Cardinals will win the World Series ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Codyz on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.
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Philip Roth for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.
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Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.