Predictions by kallman

• The Hunger Games film will not fail (>= 60% on Rotten Tomatoes). ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Christopher on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-03-24; judged right by Christopher on 2012-03-23.

• Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.

• HP MoR: <4 2+-page chapters of MoR in 2012. —Bugmaster ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.

• HP MoR: “A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted” —Bugmaster ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-15.

• HP MoR: Harry’s conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01.

• I will not live to see the apocalypse. ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Sevis on 2011-06-01; known on 2111-06-01.

• Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• ‘Facebook will be valued above 200B [at some point] within the next 5 years: 80% confidence’ —Arthur Breitman ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2016-06-07.

• 90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.

• 50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.

• 10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01.

• Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

• Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.

• Google will be rebuffed in their attempt to acquire the Nortel patents ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by kallman on 2011-04-10; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-01.

• White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by SINCITYxFoXx on 2011-03-30; known on 2050-03-30.

• The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050 ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2050-03-31.

• Nuclear problems in Japan will be solved at the end of April ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.

• Allied forces will need at least 2 more months to overthow Gadhafi’s government! ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-04-02; known on 2011-06-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-03.

• Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09.

• Mubarak will cease to be Egypt’s President by 2012. ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-02-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-11.

• Natalie Portman will win 2011 Best Actress Oscar —John Scalzi ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.

• Toy Story 3 will win 2011 Best Animated Oscar. —John Scalzi ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.

• Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2032-01-01.

• “By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” —Alex M ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-19; known on 2050-01-01.

• Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. —Mike Lee ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

• CEO Steve Ballmer will not leave Microsoft’s CEOship in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• ‘The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest.’ —JoshuaZ ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-08.

• ‘At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.’ —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• ‘Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities’ —JoshuaZ ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• ‘75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.’ —orangecat ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2020-01-01.

• AIDS vaccine by 2035 —Tachi Yamada ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

• Wikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• ‘By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.’ —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.

• Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. —Mike Lee ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

• Bill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-12-30.

• ‘Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz will go.’ in 2011 —Chris O’Brien ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2012-01-03.

• ‘No big Internet IPOs. Zynga, LinkedIn, Facebook, Yelp, Groupon.’ in 2011 —Chris O’Brien ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-28.

• ‘China will have more tech IPOs than the U.S.’ in 2011 —Chris O’Brien ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01.

• ‘Apple’s Mac App Store does $1B in gross sales in first year’ —Brian Breslin ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-08.

• ‘Google reboots android marketplace’ in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01.

• ‘Twitter hits 200M users’ in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2012-01-03.

• ‘Apple gives away [Mac OS X] Lion for free or less than $30’ —Brian Breslin ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2011-07-01; judged right by bobpage on 2011-06-11.

• ‘The first Youtube millionaire emerges’ in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2012-01-03.

• Panty & Stocking with Garterbelt will air on Adult Swim before 2013. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2013-01-01.

• Netflix’s stock price will be lower next year than today. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by bobpage on 2011-12-27.

• ‘Apple launches its long-awaited music streaming service’ in 2011 —Chris O’Brien ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-10.

• ‘Google will buy Twitter’ in 2011 —Chris O’Brien ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• ‘The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.’ by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01.

• ‘Computers will become about 50x faster’ by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01.

• “Everything goes very multi-core, even your cell phone.” by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01.

• ‘high-end gaming PCs will still have dedicated GPU chips somewhere in them in 2020, and that those chips will cost at least $200 for top-of-the-range and at least $100 for mid range’ —Roko ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01.

• The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.

• In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.

• “Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.” ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01.

• The proportion of the population that believes that Human-induced climate change is a reality will decline to below 50% by 2014. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2014-12-16.

• “In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” —Vinod Khosla ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2014-04-04.

• “By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.” ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2014-01-01.

• “the number of IMAX theaters in the US triples” —dfranke ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31.

• “The current lull in the increase of the speed at which CPUs perform sequential operations comes to an end, yielding a consumer CPU that performs sequential integer arithmetic operations 4x as quickly as a modern 3GHz Xeon” —dfranke ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31.

• “The Iraqi Dinar will revalue, and reach a value of 3 Dinars per 1 U.S. dollar, or better, by November 6/2013. Currently, as of November 6/08, the exchange rate is 1176 Iraqi Dinars, per U.S. dollar.” ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-11-06.

• “Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.” ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2013-06-25.

• Micheal Jackson is pulling a Tupac ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2013-02-10.

• Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01.

• The world will not end in 2012 ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2013-01-01.

• There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2010-06-26.

• Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24.

• “The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” —Ted Ritter ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known in 18 days.

• Miley Cyrus will fade out of the spotlight in 2 years with the cut from Hannah Montana ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.

• Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-10-20.

• “By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.” ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-01-01.

• “There will be no significant newspapers printed on newsprint in the US by 2012.” (By significant, he seems to mean major market with a traditionally wide circulation.) —Seth Godin ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

• “By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional “incremental improvements” will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th – 31st 2008; US print edition, p.8 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

• “A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• The Terrafugia company will begin selling the Transition flying car to private individuals as a street-legal and air-legal vehicle in the United States by the end of 2011. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by hmadison on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Dell’s cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) … in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price.” —Jakob Nielsen ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.

• In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-02.

• There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 37% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.

• The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2012-03-22; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• Buffy the Vampire Slayer will make it to the Big Screen ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2011-06-01.

• The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. —Nate Silver ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-31.

• Google will lose their soul. We’ll love them less in the coming years. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2011-05-27; judged wrong by Lina on 2011-05-27.

• Quiksilver shares will double inside 30 months ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Andrew on 2008-10-06; known on 2011-04-06; judged wrong by Andrew on 2011-04-06.

• “The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.

• The Dow will close under 8,000 (in Oct. 2009 dollars) before Dec. 31st, 2010. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by tommccabe on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.

• ARNA’s stock price will be over $30 on Jan 15, 2011 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.

• MNKD’s stock price will be over $20 by Jan 15, 2011 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.

• “Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.

• There will be another major natural disaster before the years over ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-06.

• A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a “cyberspace grafitti” sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-22; known on 2030-01-01.

• ‘Nanotech clothing enters the mass market’ by 2022 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

• ‘Prince Harry becomes the first member of the British royal family to fly in space.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2014-01-01.

• ‘2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

• ‘2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2046-01-01.

• “2061 Halley’s Comet returns – first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle’s century-old hypothesis that life exists through space.” —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2062-01-01.

• ‘2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide “mined” from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2091-01-01.

• The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

• Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). —Ray Kurzweil ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

• 3-D is just a fad: “It’s happened before and it will happen again: At some point soon, 3-D cinema will regain its well-earned status as a sublime and ridiculous headache.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.

• Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• “In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids.” ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• “Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01.

• Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31.

• By 2100 it’s obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it’s actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.

• Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. —Ray Kurzweil ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.

• ‘Aerospace-planes enter commercial service.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2013-01-01.

• ‘2095 The development of a “Space Drive” – a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time – makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.’ ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2096-01-01.

• A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. —Ray Kurzweil ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

• Most people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a “computer” is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilit ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

• The fad for 3d will turn out to be just that, a fad, and not vanish, but not really go anywhere either. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2015-06-15.

• The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 72% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01.

• 60% or more of the population of any one country will use public transit more frequently than driving by 2025 ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2025-12-31.

• Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2030-01-01.