Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
Predictions by kiba
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by RobertLumley on 2012-01-18.
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SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-01-15.
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Apple’s share in the smartphone market will collapse to 10% or less by the end of this year. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-30.
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Sometime in the next 5 years, a television network will make a build show that involves hackerspaces. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2017-02-01.
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I will earn 300 dollars worth of bitcoin by the end of the month. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-02-28.
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I will continue to work on the game “The City” by next month. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-04.
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Within 3 years, at least 3 manga English distributors will go out of business or stop publishing. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-08; known on 2015-01-08.
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SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 50% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16.
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Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 8 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30.