Predictions by kilobug

• German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.

• By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

• Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 93% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2012-01-01.

• HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-30.

• Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.

• Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by gwern 13 days ago.

• lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 67% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.

• Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 80% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01.

• Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.

• A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01.

• The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.

• “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.

• ‘2021 The first humans land on Mars.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

• By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2045-01-01.

• A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.

• The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.

• The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2036-01-01.

• The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.

• President Obama will win the Presidential election in 2012. ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-11-11.

• The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2010-06-26.

• The world will not end on December 2012. ( 100% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-03-18; known on 2012-12-31.

• The world will not end in 2012 ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2013-01-01.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• World will not end on 12-21-2012. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-12-21.

• Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07.

• The war in Israel-Plestine will end ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by cheick on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-21.

• Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.