Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 75% | 67% | 50% | 60% | 50% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
Predictions by komponisto
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Appeals court in Perugia will not increase the sentences of Knox and Sollecito. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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Appeals court in Perugia will acquit Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito of the murder of Meredith Kercher. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-10-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.