Predictions by lavalamp

• Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-19; known on 2022-10-10.

• Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 70% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and Gilderoy Lockhart gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern 30 days ago; known on 2015-01-01.

• Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=60% of them are failed replications ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by lweismantel 30 days ago; known on 2013-04-01.

• HP MoR: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Methods of Rationality will have an arc/chapter involving Harry getting a harem. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Sirius Black is in Hogwarts ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban and the person in Azkaban is Peter Pettigrew ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bellatrix Black is a Horcrux ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Peter Pettigrew is dead ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dementors simply kill like anything else, death is death (cf. Death Note) ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary is a Horcrux ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary is both Voldemort and Roger Bacon’s diary ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary is Voldemort’s diary ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character ( 88% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: the Philosopher’s Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Creation of a Philosopher’s Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg) ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-22; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain’s economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione’s “purchase”). ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known in 22 days; judged wrong by HonoreDB 26 days ago.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry’s fourth year or later of Hogwarts ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry’s third year of Hogwarts ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry’s second year of Hogwarts ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry’s first year of Hogwarts ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01.

• HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be mentioned by name but not appear ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they tricked her into writing down the story and then Obliviated her; she trusted her notes and published ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Muggle technology to forge the documents ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The original Quirrel was Voldemort’s master or teacher ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius’ed her. ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley ( 90% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 79% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let’s define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being known. ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-03-21; known 29 days ago; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman 17 days ago.

• HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry’s own death on the night of his parents’ death. ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-09-04.

• HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 17% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-09-04.

• HPMoR : ch 81 : Harry will marry Hermione and thereby make this a matter between noble houses, and then turn that into a trial by lightsaber of hermy and draco ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by rohit507 on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.

• HP MOR Ch81 Harry’s solution is to use the time turner to go back in time and frame Lord Jugson for doing it by tampering with His/Hermoines/Dracos wands and false memory charming a student. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Pringlescan4 on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 between 20 and 24 US$. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• “USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.

• “The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare” —jdgalt ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known in 11 days.

• By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch 81: Harry’s solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR_: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel (a la http://lesswrong.com/lw/ams/harry_potter_and_the_methods_ofrationality/60bb ) ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2013-07-02.

• HP MoR: Priori Incantatum ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by gryffinp on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-29; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: Harry will confess to having arranged the attempted murder of Malfoy. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be ask for a trial by combat ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to affect Lucius in some way ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to alter Hermione’s testimony to something easily falsifiable ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner in some way ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be accept Hermione’s imprisonment but order the Dementors to leave her alone ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort’s true identity (Quirrel) ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix’s escape ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione’s freedom ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoking Lucius’s debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be nothing (failure) ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2014-01-21.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore deliberately arranged for Voldemort to learn of the prophecy about his defeat. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-29; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry’s actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails). ( 26% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• Solar flare to harm life on Earth ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• USD worth over 3 EUR ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21.

• World economic depression ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21.

• The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31.

• “Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids” in 2032 —Charles Stross ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

• Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 —Charles Stross ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

• “the trend towards urbanization continues” 2012-2032 —Charles Stross ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

• All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

• “Moore’s Law will have played out by 2032” —Charles Stross ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

• Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

• Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people —Charles Stross ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

• “Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising.” ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

• “There will be 5-10 billion people.” —Charles Stross ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

• “HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

• Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

• Diabetes cured by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

• A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

• Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

• iPad 3 will have a quad-core CPU ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-03-08; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-03-07.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 10 ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 15 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 35 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 30 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 25 ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 20 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15.

• The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.

• World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons … anywhere … on Earth. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-01-16.

• The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-01-16.

• Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16.

• Caffeine will be an illegal substance … in 60 countries by 2027. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-01-01.

• Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.

• Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.

• Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029. ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-27.

• Biometric clothing will be a trillion dollar market by 2025. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-27.

• A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.

• The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2065-12-01.

• Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040. ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-11-17.

• Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 71% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.

• World currences will become truly “credit-based” by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2021-12-16.

• Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.

• Harbinger1 is a genuine user but unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-20.

• Harbinger1 will be generally accepted to be a troll by the PB community ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-20.

• Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.

• The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2036-01-01.

• “The world’s first lunar tourist” by 2016 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01.

• The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.

• The worlds first “truely” cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-02-27.

• Egypt will go throw another war with Isreal ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by ahmedwael on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-10; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-10.

• The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.

• A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• A third-party or independent candidate running to the right of the Republican nominee will garner at least 1% of the vote in at least one state in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07.

• By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.

• “Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14.

• Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• In 2012, at least one U.S. television station will air an advertisement attacking Mitt Romney by making reference to his Mormonism. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-12-31.

• The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2020-01-01.

• The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.

• Stewart Alexis Alexander, of the Socialist Party USA, will receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election. ( 92% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07.

• ‘Will Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul or Bachmann run as an Independent or 3rd party candidate?’ —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-09; known on 2012-11-02.

• Barack Obama will win Ohio’s electoral votes in the 2012 election. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-11-07.

• By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• China will forgive US debt in exchange for the ending of US-Taiwan defense treaties by or during 2015 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-11; known on 2016-01-01.

• The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.

• Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.

• “By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• 90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.

• A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10.

• The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 72% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01.

• Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-10-20.

• There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2011-11-02.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• ‘bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021’ —ivan ( 93% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25.

• ‘We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.’ —Jason Calacanis ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2011-05-17.

• “Michele Bachmann to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01.

• LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

• Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

• Robin Hanson’s brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 42% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.

• 50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.

• Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 21% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.

• Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 6% confidence; 17 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-10.

• Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.

• Chess will be a solved game in 50 years ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.

• Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.

• The TV show “Grimm” will be canceled in it’s first season. ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01.

• In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Konkvistador on 2011-10-24; known on 2039-01-01.

• Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 89% confidence; 21 wagers )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07.

• If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07.

• Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.

• LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 67% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.