Most recent predictions by lavalamp

• The price of bitcoins meets or exceeds $50 within the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by tedks on 2013-03-06; known on 2013-04-05; judged right by bobpage on 2013-03-19.

• The price of bitcoins exceeds $35 on mtgox in the next 30 days. ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by tedks on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-03-24; judged right by nanotube on 2013-03-04.

• HP MoR: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83 ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• Apple share price to stay below $700 during 2013. ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01.

• Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/) ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-01-26; known on 2113-01-01.

• Bitcoins will be worth more than 50$/coin at the end of 2013. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-12-31.

• I will wake up naturally and feel refreshed and rested by Saturday, due to the 6500K CFL “sun” that is on a timer in my bedroom. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-02-23; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-25.

• The next pope will be a white male. ( 70% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.

• Less than one hundred comments on the uncensored LW thread in a month. http://www.reddit.com/r/LessWrong/comments/17y819/lw_uncensored_thread/ ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2013-02-05; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2013-02-07.

• EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Loeb-Tiling AI” within three months ( 50% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known 16 days ago; judged right by papermachine 16 days ago.

• EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” within three months. ( 38% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known 16 days ago; judged right by Malo 22 days ago.

• Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known on 2020-01-01.

• Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.

• “Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy” —Ahdok; BBC ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• 'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31.

• Neither US nor Russian governments will make announcements claiming the existence of sentient aliens this year. http://www.eutimes.net/2013/01/russia-orders-obama-tell-world-about-aliens-or-we-will/ ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-01-01.

• “That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.” ( 90% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

• Voice recognition software will be capable of replacing the average court stenographer in five years. ( 31% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by lavalamp on 2013-02-02; known on 2018-02-01.

• Hilary Clinton will not be running for President in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-30; known on 2016-01-01.

• The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 12% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.

• The United States will reach less than 5% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.

• Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 8% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01.

• My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.

• Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 2% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01.

• Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 4% confidence; 24 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20.

• In HPMOR, Voldemort is/was at some point in the form of a disembodied spirit. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by ygert on 2012-12-18; known on 2014-01-01.

• Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $20/BTC at the end of 2013. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2014-01-01.

• The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

• Bitcoin “Coverage in media will decrease” ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01.

• “Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods” (top 500) ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• “Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods” (top 100) ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-19; known on 2022-10-10.

• Nosek&#x27;s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 72% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and Gilderoy Lockhart gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=60% of them are failed replications ( 44% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01.

• HP MoR: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Methods of Rationality will have an arc/chapter involving Harry getting a harem. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Sirius Black is in Hogwarts ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban and the person in Azkaban is Peter Pettigrew ( 59% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bellatrix Black is a Horcrux ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Peter Pettigrew is dead ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dementors simply kill like anything else, death is death (cf. Death Note) ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon&#x27;s diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon&#x27;s diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon&#x27;s diary is a Horcrux ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon&#x27;s diary is both Voldemort and Roger Bacon&#x27;s diary ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon&#x27;s diary is Voldemort&#x27;s diary ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character ( 88% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: the Philosopher&#x27;s Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Creation of a Philosopher&#x27;s Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg) ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-22; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 57% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain&#x27;s economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione&#x27;s “purchase”). ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry&#x27;s fourth year or later of Hogwarts ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry&#x27;s third year of Hogwarts ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry&#x27;s second year of Hogwarts ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry&#x27;s first year of Hogwarts ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 51% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01.

• HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be mentioned by name but not appear ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they tricked her into writing down the story and then Obliviated her; she trusted her notes and published ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Muggle technology to forge the documents ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The original Quirrel was Voldemort&#x27;s master or teacher ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius&#x27;ed her. ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley ( 90% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 79% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let&#x27;s define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being known. ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2012-05-02.

• HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry&#x27;s own death on the night of his parents&#x27; death. ( 54% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-09-04.

• HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 16% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-09-04.

• HPMoR : ch 81 : Harry will marry Hermione and thereby make this a matter between noble houses, and then turn that into a trial by lightsaber of hermy and draco ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by rohit507 on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.

• HP MOR Ch81 Harry&#x27;s solution is to use the time turner to go back in time and frame Lord Jugson for doing it by tampering with His/Hermoines/Dracos wands and false memory charming a student. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Pringlescan4 on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 between 20 and 24 US$. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• “USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.

• “The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare” —jdgalt ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-06-28.

• By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch 81: Harry&#x27;s solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17.

• HP MoR_: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel (a la http://lesswrong.com/lw/ams/harry_potter_and_the_methods_ofrationality/60bb ) ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2013-07-02.

• HP MoR: Priori Incantatum ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by gryffinp on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-29; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-03-28.