Most recent predictions by lukeprog

• Two weeks after opening, 'Dark Tourist' (by Suri Krishnamma) will hold a score of <45% on RottenTomatoes.com. ( 75% confidence )

  Created by lukeprog on 2013-08-17; known on 2013-09-05; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-09-05.

• By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. —Alyssa Vance ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.

• By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. —Alyssa Vance ( 62% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.

• By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. — Alyssa Vance ( 44% confidence; 11 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.

• If Star Wars VII is released in 2015, then it will have a higher RottenTomatoes score than 'The Phantom Menace' at the end of 2015. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2016-01-01.

• Obama will be elected President in 2012 ( 69% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by cmessinger on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

• New Star Wars movie out before end of 2015 ( 71% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.

• Eliezer's Sequences will be published by the Singularity Institute as an ebook (in Kindle, PDF, or iBooks format) sometime between Nov. 1st 2012 and Mar. 1st 2013. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2013-03-02.

• I will not publish an NYT bestseller in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 23 comments )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.

• I won't upgrade to iPhone 5 before February 2013. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-02-01.

• I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 80% confidence; 13 wagers )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29.

• I'll lose 10 pounds before Summit 2012. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2012-10-15; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-15.

• I won't try polyphasic sleep in 2012. ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.

• No paper primarily about Geoff Anders' Connection Theory will be published in a peer-reviewed psychology journal in the next 5 years. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-27; known on 2017-09-27.

• My 'guide to modern classical music' won't be finished by the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.

• I'll have read through chapter 20 in HPMoR by the end of this month. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.

• One week after its release, 'Django Unchained' will hold a score of 80% or above on RottenTomatoes. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.

• One week after its release, 'The Master' will hold a score of 85% or above on RottenTomatoes. ( 85% confidence )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-09-21; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-09-21.

• “The Singularity and Machine Ethics” will have been cited more than 5 times, according to Google Scholar, by the end of 2013. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.

• No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.

• I will visit Oxford UK this year. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.

• At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.

• The complete Russian translation of Facing the Singularity will be posted to facingthesingularity.com by the end of November. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 57 comments )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-12-01.

• All previously published SI research papers will be typeset in the new template before the end of the month. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.

• Yvain will have more LessWrong karma than me in 5 years. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2017-09-04.

• I'll still be a physicalist throughout 2013. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.

• No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 72% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01.

• Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.

• User Epiphany will cease commenting or posting on LW within a month ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-09-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-03.

• Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014. ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.

• Dark Knight Rises will hold a score of 90% or greater on Rottentomatoes.com on July 25th. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by lukeprog on 2012-07-15; known on 2012-07-25; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-07-25.

• Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 82% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

• Singularity Institute's new website design will go live before February 16, 2012. ( 70% confidence )

  Created by lukeprog on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-02-16; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-02-17.

• 30 new speaker invitations for Singularity Summit 2012 will be written by the end of Monday, Nov. 14th. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by lukeprog on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by lukeprog on 2011-11-15.

• A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% —David Dalrymple ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-06-08.

• PZ Myers will still identify as an atheist in one year. ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.

• The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.