Predictions by Matt

• The Indian place on the site of Bagatelles will be out of business inside 2 years. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-11-11.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• At least 10% of MRI images uploaded to radiopaedia.org will be of resolution greater than 512×512px (upscaling doesn’t count). ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Matt on 2011-10-19; known on 2013-10-19.

• Obama will be elected President in 2012 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by cmessinger on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-11-03.

• PD will have 50 or more paid trucks on the system before the end of 2011. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2011-02-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-01-30.

• Bret’s spreadsheet issue is screen resolution related. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2010-12-01; known on 2010-12-02; judged right by bretcav on 2010-12-05.

• I’ll get back to Joe with an estimate before close of business Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2010-10-16; known on 2010-10-20; judged right by Matt on 2010-10-20.

• Trike’ll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 2nd Oct. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2010-08-30; known on 2010-10-02; judged right by Matt on 2010-09-30.

• Trike’ll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 18th Sept. [dashboard team strength 60%] ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2010-08-30; known on 2010-09-18; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-09-18.

• Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• the bub will be a boy ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Frank on 2010-01-25; known on 2010-03-29; judged right by Frank on 2010-03-29.

• KD is K D P/L ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2010-01-08; known on 2010-01-08; judged wrong by nomadphase on 2010-01-11.

• Someone (likely a tall German) will have an Xbox plugged into the Trike TV before New Year’s Day. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-12-22; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.

• Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08.

• There will be no new PD clients till the end of the year :( ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Tom on 2009-12-13; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-03.

• Plan Deliver website will be available at its proper home before the Christmas break ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Wes on 2009-12-21; known on 2009-12-23; judged right by Wes on 2009-12-23.

• I won’t get the swine flu during this year. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by popojala on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• We’ll find a human-based way to fix integration with MYOB or opt for a different accounting solution. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by captainpete on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-30; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.

• Kando will be ready (in respect to the features) to get the 10 dentists on ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Tom on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by Tom on 2009-12-06.

• i will be able to stand on a surf board for more than 5 sec after this weekend ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Tom on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-06; judged right by Tom on 2009-12-06.

• I will have saasu set up by end of Friday this week ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by fionajohnston on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-05; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-12-22.

• I will have automated the rollout of a ruby site by the end of the week. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by jon on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-27; judged wrong by jon on 2009-11-27.

• Our TV will be set up (connected to a server, some kind of status report) til the end of the week ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Tom on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-28; judged right by Tom on 2009-11-29.

• Bell/Carry sites will be live by Friday. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Matt on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-11-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-11-14.

• DC practices management improvement job will be complete by Friday ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-11-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-11-14.

• When I turn on my brother’s just upgraded macbook, it’ll work. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-10-17; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-17.

• One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2018-01-01.

• The world will end in 2012 ( 18% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Martin Chase on 2009-11-17.

• Glenn will arrive at Trike before 10am (GMT+10) today. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-14; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-10-15.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• FOX will not pick up the show “Dollhouse” for a third season. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged right by Jack on 2009-11-12.

• Neither Eliezer nor Robin will have more than 10 public predictions recorded before Monday ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-18.

• Radiopaedia’s visitor traffic will reach 100K/month before Sept 2010 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Frank on 2009-09-25; known on 2010-11-16; judged right by Frank on 2010-09-16.

• Radiopaedia will be up and running on the staging server by the end of the week ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Wes on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-10-02; judged right by Wes on 2009-09-30.

• LW will be running (not live) on AWS hardware this week ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-10-04; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-10-15.

• G’s analysis will be submitted to him by Wednesday ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-09-30; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-30.

• Volume 2: iphone App will sell 1000 copies in the first month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Frank on 2009-09-22; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by Frank on 2009-11-02.

• LW will go up (as a demo, not live) on AWS this week ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-27; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.

• OB will go live on AWS this week ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-27; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.

• Radiopaedia wont go live tday ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Tom on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Tom on 2009-09-21.

• My PB chart (http://bit.ly/nV7rV) will still look very embarrassing at the end of the week. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.

• Radiopaedia will go live on or before Wed next week (week beginning 21 Sep) ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Wes on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-24; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-24.

• I will have written and submitted my Trike profile ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by captainpete on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.

• We will have another Plandeliver client (verbal agreement) by the end of the week ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Tom on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-21.

• I’ll send Katrina some designs I’m happy with this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-08; known on 2009-09-12; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-13.

• I will make two more predictions before the weeks end. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by jon on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-11; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-15.

• we’ll have implemented free-text searching by selectable filters (new approach) ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by captainpete on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-14.

• Round 2 and 3 of the Radiopaedia styling will be completed. Where completed means released to dev. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Wes on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged right by Wes on 2009-09-14.

• We will start working on the MyOB integration at Kando ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-14.

• Kando will be live first of december ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-12-01.

• I will work Friday ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-11; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-11.

• At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Sunday ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-13; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-09-14.

• I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-13; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-12.

• I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-06.

• At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Monday ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-07.

• I will have closed all the currently open podshifter tickets relating to broken feeds ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-09-07.

• Round 2 of the Radiopaedia redesign integration will be completed ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Wes on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-07.

• we’ll have finished refactoring variants into products ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by captainpete on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged right by captainpete on 2009-09-07.

• We will end up chosing the vegetarian degustation menu. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by CRobert on 2009-06-02; known on 2009-05-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-06-04.

• Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.

• I will make it home before 7pm tonight ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by CRobert on 2009-06-02; known on 2009-06-02; judged right by CRobert on 2009-06-02.

• Andy and Miyo will have a baby boy ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Miyo on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by Miyo on 2009-06-18.

• It will be a girl. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Andrew on 2009-05-15; known on 2009-11-16; judged right by Miyo on 2009-06-18.

• The result of this coin flip will be heads ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2009-05-05; known on 2009-05-05; judged right by scott.arbeitman on 2009-05-05.

• the new overridable URL field will cause problems with caching (esp. static caching) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Gerrit on 2009-01-22; known on 2009-01-26; judged wrong by Gerrit on 2009-01-30.

• Our unfinished run of http://projecteuler.net/index.php?section=problems&id=32 will be correct anyway ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2008-12-04; known on 2008-12-04; judged right by Matt on 2008-12-04.

• Radiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Jan 15, 2009 ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2008-12-02; known on 2009-01-15; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-01-17.

• Radiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Feb 1, 2009 ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2008-12-02; known on 2009-02-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-02-01.

• Our podshifter large file problems will resolve if lame can be made to correctly mp3 > wav decode ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2008-11-25; known on 2008-12-02; judged wrong by Matt on 2008-12-02.

• Charlotte will be asleep before we arrive home (made yesterday, during car trip). ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Matt on 2008-11-10; known on 2008-11-09; judged right by Lina on 2008-11-10.

• Alex will be asleep before we arrive home (made yesterday, during car trip). ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Matt on 2008-11-10; known on 2008-11-09; judged wrong by Lina on 2008-11-10.

• There will be more than 10,000 predictions on pbook by end 08. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Lina on 2008-06-20; known on 2009-01-01; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-01-08.

• Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 4 hours ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.

• Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 8 hours ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.

• The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 100% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.

• The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2009-11-11; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.

• Obama will be the next US president. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Lina on 2008-06-29; known on 2008-11-08; judged right by Glenn on 2008-11-05.

• Adam will receive the file I just sent through my junior shell-fu ( 55% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2008-09-09; known on 2008-09-09; judged right by Matt on 2008-09-09.

• I will get an email asking me to judge this prediction within 5 minutes ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2008-08-22; known on 2008-08-22; judged wrong on 2008-08-22.

• The existing crmhub api will allow licenses to be retrieved from an email address (but may require multiple requests) ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Matt on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-20; judged wrong by Adam on 2008-08-14.

• When I click the link in Glenn’s bogus comment in my name, it’ll be Rick ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Matt on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-01; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• The Hindenburg Disaster caused 6 or fewer deaths ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Adam on 2008-07-18; known on 2038-07-18; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-11-07.

• 1AUD will be worth greater than 1USD before the year is out ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2009-01-01; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-01-08.

• The world will not end when the LHC is activated ( 100% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-04; known on 2008-07-08; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• Within 10 seconds, Charlottle will wriggle out of her current position ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2008-07-18; known on 2008-07-18; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• Trike staff will eat all the chocolates and raise money for charity ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Chantelle on 2008-07-10; known on 2008-07-24; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.

• I’ll be able to convince Westpac to handle Ruth’s account changes without going to the branch ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Matt on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-07-21; judged right on 2008-08-01.

• PredictionBook will have an Alpha server running by June 20, 2008 ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2008-06-20; known on 2008-06-20; judged right on 2008-08-14.

• pbook will not be released to the web by xmas 08 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Trainor on 2008-06-20; known on 2008-12-30; judged right by Matt on 2009-01-14.

• Movies have a smaller relative market share now than 10 yrs ago ( 75% confidence )

  Created by Matt on 2008-06-24; known on 2008-06-24; judged right on 2008-08-01.