Predictions by Matt

Predictions by Matt

• Trike’ll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 2nd Oct. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Matt 10 days ago; known in 22 days.

• Trike’ll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 18th Sept. [dashboard team strength 60%] ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Matt 10 days ago; known in 8 days.

• Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InTrade 11 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.

• the bub will be a boy ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Frank 7 months ago; known 5 months ago; judged right by Frank 5 months ago.

• KD is K D P/L ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Matt 8 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by nomadphase 8 months ago.

• Someone (likely a tall German) will have an Xbox plugged into the Trike TV before New Year’s Day. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt 8 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 8 months ago.

• Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman 9 months ago; known in over 9 years.

• There will be no new PD clients till the end of the year :( ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Tom 9 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by Matt 8 months ago.

• Plan Deliver website will be available at its proper home before the Christmas break ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Wes 8 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by Wes 8 months ago.

• I won’t get the swine flu during this year. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by popojala 9 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.

• We’ll find a human-based way to fix integration with MYOB or opt for a different accounting solution. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by captainpete 9 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 8 months ago.

• Kando will be ready (in respect to the features) to get the 10 dentists on ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Tom 9 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by Tom 9 months ago.

• i will be able to stand on a surf board for more than 5 sec after this weekend ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Tom 9 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by Tom 9 months ago.

• I will have saasu set up by end of Friday this week ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by fionajohnston 9 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 8 months ago.

• I will have automated the rollout of a ruby site by the end of the week. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by jon 9 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged wrong by jon 9 months ago.

• Our TV will be set up (connected to a server, some kind of status report) til the end of the week ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Tom 9 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by Tom 9 months ago.

• Bell/Carry sites will be live by Friday. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Matt 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 9 months ago.

• DC practices management improvement job will be complete by Friday ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Matt 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 9 months ago.

• When I turn on my brother’s just upgraded macbook, it’ll work. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by Matt 10 months ago.

• One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets. ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JamesMiller 10 months ago; known in over 7 years.

• The world will end in 2012 ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by jes5199 11 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by Martin Chase 9 months ago.

• Glenn will arrive at Trike before 10am (GMT+10) today. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt 11 months ago; known 11 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 11 months ago.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 72% confidence; 37 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by MBlume 11 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 9 months ago.

• FOX will not pick up the show “Dollhouse” for a third season. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jack 11 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by Jack 10 months ago.

• Neither Eliezer nor Robin will have more than 10 public predictions recorded before Monday ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt 11 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by Matt 10 months ago.

• Radiopaedia’s visitor traffic will reach 100K/month before Sept 2010 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Frank 11 months ago; known in 2 months.

• Radiopaedia will be up and running on the staging server by the end of the week ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Wes 11 months ago; known 11 months ago; judged right by Wes 11 months ago.

• LW will be running (not live) on AWS hardware this week ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Matt 11 months ago; known 11 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 10 months ago.

• G’s analysis will be submitted to him by Wednesday ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Matt 11 months ago; known 11 months ago; judged right by Matt 11 months ago.

• Volume 2: iphone App will sell 1000 copies in the first month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Frank 11 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by Frank 10 months ago.

• LW will go up (as a demo, not live) on AWS this week ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt 11 months ago; known 11 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 11 months ago.

• OB will go live on AWS this week ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Matt 11 months ago; known 11 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 11 months ago.

• Radiopaedia wont go live tday ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Tom 11 months ago; known 11 months ago; judged right by Tom 11 months ago.

• My PB chart (http://bit.ly/nV7rV) will still look very embarrassing at the end of the week. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Matt 11 months ago; known 11 months ago; judged right by Matt 11 months ago.

• Radiopaedia will go live on or before Wed next week (week beginning 21 Sep) ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Wes 12 months ago; known 11 months ago; judged wrong by Wes 11 months ago.

• I will have written and submitted my Trike profile ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by captainpete 12 months ago; known 11 months ago; judged right by Matt 11 months ago.

• We will have another Plandeliver client (verbal agreement) by the end of the week ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Tom 12 months ago; known 11 months ago; judged wrong by Tom 11 months ago.

• I’ll send Katrina some designs I’m happy with this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt about 1 year ago; known 12 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 12 months ago.

• I will make two more predictions before the weeks end. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by jon about 1 year ago; known 12 months ago; judged right by Matt 11 months ago.

• we’ll have implemented free-text searching by selectable filters (new approach) ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by captainpete about 1 year ago; known 12 months ago; judged wrong by captainpete 12 months ago.

• Round 2 and 3 of the Radiopaedia styling will be completed. Where completed means released to dev. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Wes about 1 year ago; known 12 months ago; judged right by Wes 12 months ago.

• We will start working on the MyOB integration at Kando ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Tom about 1 year ago; known 12 months ago; judged wrong by Tom 12 months ago.

• The first stage of the DC site will be live by the end of January ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Tom about 1 year ago; known 7 months ago.

• Kando will be live first of december ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Tom about 1 year ago; known 9 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 9 months ago.

• I will work Friday ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Glenn about 1 year ago; known 12 months ago; judged right by Glenn 12 months ago.

• At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Sunday ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt about 1 year ago; known 12 months ago; judged wrong by Glenn 12 months ago.

• I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt about 1 year ago; known 12 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 12 months ago.

• I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Matt about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Matt about 1 year ago.

• At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Monday ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Matt about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Matt about 1 year ago.

• I will have closed all the currently open podshifter tickets relating to broken feeds ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Glenn about 1 year ago.

• Round 2 of the Radiopaedia redesign integration will be completed ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Wes about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Wes about 1 year ago.

• we’ll have finished refactoring variants into products ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by captainpete about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by captainpete about 1 year ago.

• We will end up chosing the vegetarian degustation menu. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by CRobert about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Matt about 1 year ago.

• Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by TwitterPredicts about 1 year ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by gwern 8 days ago.

• I will make it home before 7pm tonight ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by CRobert about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by CRobert about 1 year ago.

• Andy and Miyo will have a baby boy ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Miyo about 1 year ago; known 9 months ago; judged wrong by Miyo about 1 year ago.

• It will be a girl. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Andrew about 1 year ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by Miyo about 1 year ago.

• The result of this coin flip will be heads ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Matt about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by scott.arbeitman about 1 year ago.

• the new overridable URL field will cause problems with caching (esp. static caching) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Gerrit about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Gerrit about 1 year ago.

• Our unfinished run of http://projecteuler.net/index.php?section=problems&id=32 will be correct anyway ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by Matt about 1 year ago.

• Radiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Jan 15, 2009 ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Matt about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Matt about 1 year ago.

• Radiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Feb 1, 2009 ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Matt about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Matt about 1 year ago.

• Our podshifter large file problems will resolve if lame can be made to correctly mp3 > wav decode ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Matt about 1 year ago.

• Charlotte will be asleep before we arrive home (made yesterday, during car trip). ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Matt about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by Lina about 1 year ago.

• Alex will be asleep before we arrive home (made yesterday, during car trip). ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Matt about 1 year ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Lina about 1 year ago.

• There will be more than 10,000 predictions on pbook by end 08. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Lina over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Glenn about 1 year ago.

• Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 4 hours ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by Glenn 11 months ago.

• Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 8 hours ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by Glenn 11 months ago.

• The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 100% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by rwallace 8 months ago.

• The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 8 months ago.

• Obama will be the next US president. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Lina over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by Glenn about 1 year ago.

• Adam will receive the file I just sent through my junior shell-fu ( 55% confidence )

  Created by Matt over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged right by Matt over 2 years ago.

• I will get an email asking me to judge this prediction within 5 minutes ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Matt over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged wrong over 2 years ago.

• The existing crmhub api will allow licenses to be retrieved from an email address (but may require multiple requests) ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Matt over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged wrong by Adam over 2 years ago.

• When I click the link in Glenn’s bogus comment in my name, it’ll be Rick ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Matt over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged right over 2 years ago.

• The Hindenburg Disaster caused 6 or fewer deaths ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Matt over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged wrong over 2 years ago.

• The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Adam over 2 years ago; known in over 27 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• 1AUD will be worth greater than 1USD before the year is out ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged wrong by Glenn about 1 year ago.

• The world will not end when the LHC is activated ( 100% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged right over 2 years ago.

• Within 10 seconds, Charlottle will wriggle out of her current position ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Matt over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged right over 2 years ago.

• Trike staff will eat all the chocolates and raise money for charity ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Chantelle over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged wrong over 2 years ago.

• I’ll be able to convince Westpac to handle Ruth’s account changes without going to the branch ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Matt over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged right over 2 years ago.

• PredictionBook will have an Alpha server running by June 20, 2008 ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Matt over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged right over 2 years ago.

• pbook will not be released to the web by xmas 08 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Trainor over 2 years ago; known about 1 year ago; judged right by Matt about 1 year ago.

• Movies have a smaller relative market share now than 10 yrs ago ( 75% confidence )

  Created by Matt over 2 years ago; known over 2 years ago; judged right over 2 years ago.