Predictions by Noetic Jun

• Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.

• A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% —David Dalrymple ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-06-08.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• I will be able to successfully compile and install OpenViBE SVN trunk and the associated packages, libraries and data. ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-11-02; judged right by Noetic Jun on 2011-11-01.

• Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.

• Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.

• As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere. ( 88% confidence; 14 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.

• Firefox’s latest stable version number will at least double in 2012 ( 27% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by slikts on 2011-10-13; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will score 90+ on AI Class Homework 1 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-13; judged right by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-13.

• Marijuana will not be decriminalised in Latvia at least until the end of year 2012. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-31.

• There will be at least one major outbreak of violence during the Occupy Wall Street protest. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged wrong by Noetic Jun on 2011-11-11.

• OpenCog will reach v1.0 feature set (as per http://opencog.org/roadmap) in the assigned time. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31.

• Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.

• Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 6% confidence; 17 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-10.

• Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.

• Chilean wines will see a rise in popularity. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-09-15.