Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Predictions by mjgeddes
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There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by Jack 10 months ago.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 8% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by ledflyd 9 months ago.
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Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by mjgeddes 10 months ago; known in over 4 years; judged unknown by freyley 10 months ago.
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By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JamesMiller 11 months ago; known in 3 months.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 21 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max 11 months ago; known in 3 months; judged unknown by gwern 12 days ago.
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Generic AI won’t happen in the next 10 years. ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by bogdanb 11 months ago; known in over 9 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rwallace 11 months ago; known in over 29 years; judged unknown by freyley 10 months ago.
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Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by max 11 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by mjgeddes 11 months ago; known in over 3 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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‘Alcopop’ to win Melbourne Cup (Australian horse racing) ( 17% confidence )
Created by mjgeddes 11 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by mjgeddes 10 months ago.
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‘Allez Wonder’ to win Caulfield Cup (Australian horse racing) ( 10% confidence )
Created by mjgeddes 11 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 10 months ago.