Predictions by Michael Stevens

• HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder’s Map is Quirrel appearing as ‘the Defense Professor’ ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry is a Horcrux and Voldemort knows this ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be widely legally available in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-04-06; known on 2022-01-01.

• IT / Scarlet Tea & Cakes 1/3/2012 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by doctor_regtools on 2012-03-01; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by Michael Stevens on 2012-03-01.

• A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 94% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Morendil on 2011-11-03.

• Second edition of 3DS out by Christmas 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16.

• “I expect Apple to move to a modular architecture where the building blocks for high performance computers are generally Mac Minis.” —Robert X Cringely ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known in 13 days.

• gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.

• By the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry’s own death on the night of his parents’ death. ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-09-04.

• HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 17% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-09-04.

• Nokia’s share price will fall by 50% in the next two years ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-08-22; known on 2013-08-22.

• A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon’s diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.

• At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.

• Greek will default / there will be a credit event relating to greek govt bonds ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.