Predictions by muflax

• If XiXiDu has taken a typical IQ test in the last 10 years or takes one this year, he will score at least 115. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-08.

• Valve announces Steam Box before 2014. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2012-03-06; known on 2014-01-01.

• “There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 21 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01.

• PredictionBook will display users’ Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01.

• SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01.

• General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• ‘By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.’ —Kevin ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01.

• On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb’s top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• The Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2015-01-01.

• LessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ ) ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• Half-Life 3 released in 2012. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01.

• HBO’s Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones). ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2018-12-31.

• Q.I. makes it up to “Z”. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.

• Q.I. abandons its “one letter a season” concept. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.

• Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.

• Reddit: “teaching daughter to ride bike” pic is reposted as “autistic daughter”. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-30; known 20 days ago; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-31.

• Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015. ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01.

• If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin’s diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16.

• SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01.

• An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01.

• Dexter season 7: Dexter will intentionally kill Deb ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-12-19.

• Reddit: reminder that “Dawn of The Final Day” frontpage was predicted a year ago on frontpage on 2012/12/20. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-12-20.

• Reddit: “Dawn of The Final Day” meme on frontpage on 2012/12/20. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-12-20.

• “Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14.

• Dexter season 7: Quinn investigates Dexter. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19.

• Dexter season 7: Quinn and Louis will work together. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19.

• Dexter season 7: real identity of Bay Harbor Butcher is publicly announced. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19.

• “Robert Mugabe to no longer be President of Zimbabwe before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• Dexter: There will be wincest. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19.

• Dexter season 7: I will call one major twist in the final episode of the season halfway through. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19.

• Dexter season 7: a regular dies. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19.

• Dexter dies in the final episode. ( 25% confidence )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19.

• Dexter season 7: Deb forgets the finale of season 6. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19.

• Dexter season 7: Deb and Dex kiss. ( 40% confidence )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19.

• Dexter season 6: Deb and Dex kiss. ( 15% confidence )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

• Dexter season 6: a regular dies. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

• Dexter season 6: Louis kills Travis. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

• Dexter: Louis returns in season 7 as non-villain. ( 25% confidence )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-12-12.

• Dexter: Louis returns in season 7 as villain. ( 35% confidence )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-12-12.

• “Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.

• By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01.

• Reddit: birdie / cheese are in a relationship in 6 months (and we get an update). ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-01; known in 12 days.

• A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01.

• Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 50%. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-01-01.

• Dexter season 6: Deb will find out (or already knows) that Dexter is a killer. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-19.

• Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 93% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2012-01-01.

• predictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01.

• I will not officially fail https://www.beeminder.com/shokwave/goals/pbook before 2012 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by shokwave on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

• Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.

• German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27.

• The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 72% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01.

• A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10.

• Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.

• I will still be alive in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01.

• I will make a prediction on PB in 2012. ( 88% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-01-02.

• Sister Y still alive in 2013. ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01.

• Wei Dai will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• The prediction market intrade will still be open for business in 2020. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01.

• Raymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Nassim Nicholas Taleb will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Phil Goetz will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-25.

• Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• cousin_it will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• wedrifid will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• Yvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Luke Muehlhauser will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2011-11-12.

• If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07.

• I will do at least 70 Anki reps/day on average this month. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-01.

• “Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 67% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.

• An official 2.0 release of the Ruby language will be available on or before February 24, 2013. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-11-07; known on 2013-02-24.

• If I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 2. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01.

• lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 67% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.

• Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-10-20.

• The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16.

• gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 89% confidence; 21 wagers )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07.

• ‘Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history’ ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10.

• By 2018, an editorial in either the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal will call for an investigation into whether the 9/11 Truth movement’s accusations are correct. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2018-01-01.

• My Introduction to Java deck will be the most downloaded Anki deck containing the word “Java” on 03-01-2012. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-03.

• I will still use Beeminder in a month. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-03; known on 2011-12-03; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-03.

• I will still use Beeminder in a week. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-03; known on 2011-11-10; judged right by muflax on 2011-11-09.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.

• There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2011-11-02.

• Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.

• ‘NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012’ —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31.

• LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 67% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

• LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

• The average of this bet will be 90% to 100% until friday. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-05.

• Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 80% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.

• Reddit: guy who signed birth certificate of another man’s child will get sued for child support before 2013. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-30; known on 2013-01-01.

• Owen will post an article about Direct Instruction on LW this year. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• 90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.

• 50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.

• 10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01.

• I will publish another article on my site this year. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• There will be a new (upvoted) argument against wireheading on LW until 2013. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01.

• At least one of my two Samsung HDDs will fail before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01.

• LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success and will have solid long-term data to back it up. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01.

• LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01.

• Luke will finish his meta-ethics sequence on LW in 2012. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01.

• Dexter season 6: Brother Sam deconverts. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-07.

• Dexter season 6: Brother Sam dies. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by muflax on 2011-11-07.

• Dexter season 6: Travis Marshall is not the final villain. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

• Dexter season 6: lab girl is (specifically) a Dexter fangirl. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

• Dexter season 6: lab girl is a serial killer. ( 15% confidence )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

• Dexter season 6: lab girl is more than a thief. ( 65% confidence )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

• Dexter season 6: Prof. Gellar is a hallucination, similar to Dexter’s dad. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by fork on 2011-11-28.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• Half-Life 3 announced by Valve in 2011. —Game Informer ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• Robin Hanson’s brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 42% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.

• No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 83% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-02.

• I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31.

• Eliezer Yudkowsky’s book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04.

• Non-Japanese customers will be allowed to buy e-books in the Japanese Kindle store. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01.

• Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2012. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01.

• Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2011. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• ‘Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year’ ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged unknown by Swimmy on 2011-10-19.

• Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson’s current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-27; known on 2013-09-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-01.

• The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01.

• GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.

• Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

• XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-16.