Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions by nationaleloquence
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2012-01-06.