Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 0% | 75% | 75% | 100% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
Predictions by othercriteria
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Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar 10 months ago; known in over 19 years; judged unknown by Jack 9 months ago.
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I won’t get the swine flu during this year. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by popojala 9 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.
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The Dow will close under 8,000 (in Oct. 2009 dollars) before Dec. 31st, 2010. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tommccabe 11 months ago; known in 4 months.
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A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade 11 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 1 month ago.
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I will not become a theist before the end of 2009. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Benthamite about 1 year ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by Benthamite 8 months ago.
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The current (10/21/09) predictionbook UI, with the right/wrong/unknown above the certainty/comments section, will still be sufficiently similar (and similarly bad) by 12/01/2009 that people mistakenly judging predictions will still happen at least three t ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by freyley 10 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by NineteenHalves 9 months ago.
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This website’s statistics will show that people pick percentages with a ‘2’ in them anomalously often- presumably due to priming from the ‘my 2 cents’ ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Larks 10 months ago; known 7 months ago; judged wrong by Larks 7 months ago.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 8% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by ledflyd 9 months ago.
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The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 8 months ago.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 83% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by komponisto 10 months ago; known in over 9 years; judged unknown by Jack 9 months ago.
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I will go to south africa ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Happypenguin 10 months ago; known about 1 month ago.
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The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 100% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bogdanb 11 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.
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There will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus 11 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged wrong by Arenamontanus 9 months ago.
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Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by mjgeddes 11 months ago; known in over 3 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 11 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by Martin Chase 9 months ago.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 72% confidence; 37 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by MBlume 11 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 9 months ago.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 21 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max 11 months ago; known in 3 months; judged unknown by gwern 12 days ago.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 25 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb 11 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by Morendil 10 months ago.
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The creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jes5199 11 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by Matt 10 months ago.