Predictions by papermachine

• I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Grognor 12 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

• Conditional on working any days, Grognor will work 1<=x<=14 months for Walmart. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern 8 days ago; known on 2013-08-14.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by papermachine 18 days ago; known on 2014-05-03.

• I will finish a second draft of my article before my advisor meeting tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )

  Created by papermachine 18 days ago; known 18 days ago; judged right by papermachine 7 days ago.

• In my Wikipedia experiment, >=90% of the links will be restored. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-15; known in 25 days.

• gwern will present his next public opinion in a way which people will see only one of three ways: educated lie, pompous and self important, lost on them due to his penchant for the thesaurus. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-04-15; judged wrong by ShadyPharmacist 23 days ago.

• Homestuck: Jane, Roxy, and Dirk attain God Tier before the beginning of Act 7. ( 40% confidence )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-19.

• Homestuck: Sollux and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy’s kernelsprite ( 10% confidence )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19.

• Homestuck: Feferi and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy’s kernelsprite ( 20% confidence )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19.

• Homestuck: Sollux and Feferi are prototyped together into Roxy’s kernelsprite ( 40% confidence )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19.

• Homestuck: Nepeta and Equius are prototyped together into Dirk’s kernelsprite ( 70% confidence )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19.

• Homestuck: Eridan will be prototyped into a kernelsprite by himself. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19.

• Homestuck: Of the five remaining dead trolls, at least four of them will be prototyped into fused sprites. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19.

• Homestuck: Gamzee didn’t go god-tier at all. He just made the outfit/acquired it from one of his alternate timeline selves. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by 1337_w0n on 2012-04-17; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05.

• XiXiDu will not post or comment on LW for one year. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-03-16; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-03-16.

• XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years, round two. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-03-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-03-16.

• I calculated the mean curvature of a cylinder correctly. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-03-13; known on 2012-03-13.

• >=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.

• Ares/Mars will make an on-screen appearance in Assassin’s Creed 3, as a member of the First Civilization. ( 10% confidence )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01.

• The character of George Washington will make a Face Heel Turn in Assassin’s Creed 3. ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01.

• Assassin’s Creed 3 will be available in the United States by October 31, 2012 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01.

• lukeprog will cease regularly using modafinil more than 3 times a week or will report tolerance ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28.

• Hanson and Yudkowsky publish the AI FOOM debate (EDIT: in a peer-reviewed, academic journal) before 2015. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-02-22; known on 2015-01-01.

• I will earn 300 dollars worth of bitcoin by the end of the month. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-02-28.

• The Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2015-01-01.

• “There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2012-01-06.

• Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.

• If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin’s diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16.

• Eliezer Yudkowsky will follow Kevin’s diet (see comments for details) for at least three months in the next two years. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16.

• Kevin’s diet (see comments for link) will work for Eliezer Yudkowsky (formally, lose at least 10 pounds in a year). If EY never adopts the diet, this prediction is wrong. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-12-25; known on 2013-02-15.

• In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24.

• Alcor’s Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.

• Alcor’s Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

• Alcor’s Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01.

• Grognor will host a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and I will successfully convince either gwern or drethelin that I attended Grognor’s meetup. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16.

• The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged unknown by papermachine on 2011-11-02.

• Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 6% confidence; 17 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-10.

• NGE: Rebuild Gendo is Kaworu’s genetic father ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01.

• I will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.

• Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.

• “Michele Bachmann to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01.

• Chris Hayes gets his own show on MSNBC before 2014. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-16.

• Dow Jones below 10,000 at end of year. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• Terence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-08-05; known on 2016-08-05.

• I will win the LW SRS contest. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-01; known on 2011-08-19; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-19.

• The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16.

• LW user ‘Zed’ is Zed Shaw. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-04; known on 2011-07-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-05.

• Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

• ‘The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven [in ZFC]’ —JoshuaZ ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• Deus Ex 3’s North America release will be pushed back past August 23, 2011 (release for one platform counts as release) ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-08-24; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-08-23.

• Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.

• Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.

• Tyrion will not die in A Dance With Dragons. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Boxo on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.

• ‘We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.’ —Jason Calacanis ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2011-05-17.

• ‘bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021’ —ivan ( 93% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25.