Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Predictions by prase
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Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Real soon now, there will be some public debate about whether PredictionBook is better suited to deal with personal-life type events or global-public-interest type events ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.
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Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Cyan on 2009-11-10.