Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 36% | 50% | 67% | 89% | 84% | 100% | |
| Sample Size | 11 | 24 | 15 | 19 | 37 | 8 | 114 |
Most recent predictions by raisin
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HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.
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[HPMOR] The character killed in CH89 is dead and will stay dead. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by raisin on 2014-05-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2015-03-04.
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Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Mh370 black box discovered ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by procran on 2014-04-06; known on 2014-04-15; judged wrong by procran on 2014-04-15.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Dogecoin's market cap will surpass Litecoin's during 2014 ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by bobpage on 2015-01-01.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 36 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19.