Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Predictions by refragable
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There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 72% confidence; 37 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by MBlume 10 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 9 months ago.
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The Dow will close under 8,000 (in Oct. 2009 dollars) before Dec. 31st, 2010. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tommccabe 10 months ago; known in 4 months.
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By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JamesMiller 10 months ago; known in 3 months.
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The recession will end this year ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts about 1 year ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.
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montgomery will defeat petterb in both of their dailygammon.com error rate tournament matches. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by refragable 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by refragable 8 months ago.
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I will bill 20+ hours the first week of November, 2009. ( 30% confidence )
Created by refragable 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by refragable 10 months ago.
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I will bill 15+ hours the week of 2009-10-25 to 2009-10-31. ( 50% confidence )
Created by refragable 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by refragable 10 months ago.