Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 33% | 100% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Predictions by roshni
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoking Lucius’s debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione’s freedom ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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Hamza Kashgari will live to see 2013. ( 40% confidence )
Created by roshni on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-01-01.
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I’ll be able to stick to my 2012 New Year resolution of ‘no mammal meat for a year’ till Dec 31, 2012. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by roshni on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-12-31.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.
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“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 37% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23.
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I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks’ time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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I will get the job I’m interviewing for on Tuesday ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-12-30; judged right by roshni on 2011-11-22.
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I will still be using prediction book by January 2012 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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I will be up-to-date on ML class by next weekend ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-27; judged wrong by roshni on 2011-11-27.