Predictions by saturn

• “Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 37% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• Apple will release their desktop OS as software only before 2015 ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2015-12-31.

• “Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01.

• Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2012 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known in 10 days.

• ‘On his hundred birthday, December 16, Sir Arthur C. Clarke is one of the first guests in the Hilton Orbiter.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2018-01-01.

• ‘Existing currencies are abolished. The “mega-watt-hour” becomes the universal unit of exchange.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2017-01-01.

• ‘An inevitable by-product of the quantum generator is complete control of matter at the atomic level. Within a few years, because they are more useful, lead and copper cost twice as much as gold.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2016-01-01.

• ‘Construction of Hilton Orbiter Hotel begins by converting the giant shuttle tanks previously allowed to fall back to Earth.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2015-01-01.

• By 2020, there will be a new World government. —Ray Kurzweil ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01.

• ‘the MacBook Air in the future (18-24 months) will switch to ARM once the >2GHz ARM processors start shipping en masse’ —pkaler ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-22; known on 2012-10-21.

• The world will end in 2012 ( 18% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Martin Chase on 2009-11-17.

• “Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06.

• A Myst live-action movie will not be released before 2020. ( 98% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-04; known on 2020-01-01.

• Google’s WebP image format will be unsuccessful. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2021-01-01.

• ‘Most phone calls are made via the Internet’ in 2014 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01.

• ‘Terabyte SD cards will be available’ in 2014 ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01.

• Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is not a character from canon. He is, in fact, a character from an anime. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-15; known on 2017-01-01.

• http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let’s define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being known. ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman 20 days ago.

• HP MoR: ch 81: Harry’s solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HPMoR : ch 81 : Harry will marry Hermione and thereby make this a matter between noble houses, and then turn that into a trial by lightsaber of hermy and draco ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by rohit507 on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.

• HP MOR Ch81 Harry’s solution is to use the time turner to go back in time and frame Lord Jugson for doing it by tampering with His/Hermoines/Dracos wands and false memory charming a student. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Pringlescan4 on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.

• An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.

• An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2020-01-01.

• HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2013-01-01.

• First-year sales of Rowling’s new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of Deathly Hallows (44 million according to Wikipedia.) ( 77% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-29; known on 2013-12-20.

• JG will bail on this project ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-01; known on 2012-03-04; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-05.

• “All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2016-11-04.

• “While president, Obama will announce support for means testing Social Security” —James Miller ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2017-01-20.

• “Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• Daily average click-through to DNB FAQ will be be <5% during the Talk-only period as compared to the previous Article-only period. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-02-09; known about 7 hours ago; judged wrong by gwern 1 day ago.

• Eliezer will reply to my PM in the next 2 days. The reply will be a go-ahead. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-28.

• Eliezer will have replied to my PM by tomorrow morning. The reply will be a go-ahead. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-28; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-28.

• Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by RobertLumley on 2012-01-18.

• 2012 is not end of this world! ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by zntneo on 2011-05-04.

• PredictionBook will display users’ Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.

• I will not smoke any tobacco products over the next 5 years. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11.

• HP MoR: “A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted” —Bugmaster ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-15.

• I will become a Peter Thiel Fellow. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-08-06; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-05.

• Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by saturn on 2011-12-13; known on 2014-01-02; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-12-17.

• I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

• I will complete the paperwork for at least one CS practical tomorrow. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

• Andrea Rossi’s 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08.

• “By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.” ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2014-01-01.

• “Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by ggreer on 2010-09-30.

• Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09.

• By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.

• By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2035-01-01; judged unknown by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17.

• By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2065-01-01.

• A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 24% confidence; 15 wagers; 18 comments )

  Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01.

• Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07.

• I will have finished all (or all but the last two) Computer Science practicals by the end of this year. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

• Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and me & drethelin will donate $10 to charity as agreed in #lesswrong ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• Grognor will host a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and I will successfully convince either gwern or drethelin that I attended Grognor’s meetup. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 68% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known in 11 days; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.

• I will have rewatched the Evangelion movies by the end of this year. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

• NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01.

• gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05.