Predictions by scav

• There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01.

• Google will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• Apple will lose all its *NIX developer goodwill and become the equivalent of Microsoft — hated but a necessary evil. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by kyst on 2011-07-28; known on 2021-07-28.

• A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 94% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Morendil on 2011-11-03.

• Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.

• The yes to AV vote will win by a narrow margin ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jase9r on 2011-04-24; known on 2011-05-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-07.

• Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.

• Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

• 2012 is not end of this world! ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by zntneo on 2011-05-04.

• ‘However, Android’s gains will mostly be at the low end of the market; the iPhone will continue to outsell any single Android smartphone model by a wide margin.’ —FtT ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01.

• Mubarak will cease to be Egypt’s President by 2012. ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-02-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-11.

• ‘At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.’ —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• A Nobel prize in Physics will be awarded for unifying general relativity with quantum theory, with experimental evidence to back it up, and it won’t be a string theory. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by scav on 2011-01-11; known on 2020-10-31.

• Average daily global oil production (crude+condensate according to EIA figures) will not exceed 75 million barrels/day in any month of 2011 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by scav on 2011-01-11; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-05.

• ‘Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year’ —scav ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.

• ‘Oil price will go over $100/barrel at some time this year’ —scav ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by scav on 2011-03-03.

• ‘General AI will not be made in 2011.’ —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• 3D Televisions using a technology that doesn’t require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• katla volcano will not erupt in 2011 ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.