Predictions by siscoking

• I will have read "Freakonomics” by February 5, 2012. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-30; known on 2012-02-05; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-02-04.

• A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 between 20 and 24 US$. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• USD worth over 3 EUR ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21.

• Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 35 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 30 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 25 ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 20 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 15 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 10 ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• This prediction will be deleted within 5 days. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-01-19.

• I will have reached a rating of at least 1780 ELO on Chess Tempo (http://chesstempo.com/chess-statistics/jpulgarin) by January 15, 2012. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-01-15; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-12.

• NDAA 2012, H.R. 1540 will be seen as the “end of democracy” in the USA within 5 years. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-01-01.

• The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining currencies also abandon the Euro and relaunch national currencies. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16.

• The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining countries retain the Euro as a currency of the smaller Euro zone, without Germany. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16.

• The future of the Euro: Pheripheral countries leave, Germany and France lead move to fiscal union. Smaller Euro survives. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16.

• The future of the Euro: “Euro survives”. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16.

• Bitcoin “Coverage in media will decrease” ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01.

• Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.

• The Bitcoin price will hit 6 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by bobpage on 2012-01-05.

• euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members) ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-04; known on 2022-01-16.