Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Predictions by taiyo
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My 8 month old son will take a nap of at least 30 minutes starting in the next 4 hours. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by taiyo 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by taiyo 10 months ago.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 8% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by ledflyd 9 months ago.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 21 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max 10 months ago; known in 3 months; judged unknown by gwern 8 days ago.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 25 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by Morendil 9 months ago.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 72% confidence; 37 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by MBlume 10 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 9 months ago.