Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 30% | 50% | 70% | 74% | 92% | 100% | |
| Sample Size | 10 | 20 | 20 | 34 | 61 | 45 | 190 |
Predictions by tedks
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‘Multiple Wikileaks alternatives will pop up, and pundits will start to realize that mass leaks are enabled by technology trends, not just by one freaky Australian dude.’ —FtT ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-14.
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Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
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Neither angelina joli nor brad pitt will die in the next 12 months ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-18; known on 2011-07-02; judged right by Frank on 2011-07-02.
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Gaddfi will lose one more son in the next 2 months. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
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Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
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In the next three months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from bitcoin end-users resulting from a the end-user’s GNU/Linux system being compromised. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-09-18; judged right by tedks on 2011-09-18.
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In the next 3 months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from end-users of bitcoins who are running the GNU/Linux operating system. ( 90% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-09-18.