Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Predictions by tommccabe
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The Dow will close under 8,000 (in Oct. 2009 dollars) before Dec. 31st, 2010. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tommccabe on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.
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Generic AI won’t happen in the next 10 years. ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.