Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Predictions by twanvl
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There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.
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The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.