Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 100% | 67% | 45% | 33% | 80% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 29 |
Predictions by velocirhymer
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Wooly mammoth resurrected by 2016. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-01.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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The ISS will continue to have crew continuously through the end of November ( 84% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.
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At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.
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The unemployment rate in Singapore will not exceed 5% in 2012. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.
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predictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01.
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Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 93% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2012-01-01.
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Within two years, at least one exoplanet less than 3 Earth masses will be discovered and verified orbiting within the habitable zone of its star. (Habitable zone=liquid water likely) ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-11-12.
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Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.