Predictions by wallowinmaya

• I’ll organize another LW-meetup this year. ( 70% confidence )

  Created by wallowinmaya 6 days ago; known on 2012-11-16.

• If XiXiDu has taken a typical IQ test in the last 10 years or takes one this year, he will score at least 115. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-08.

• Hanson and Yudkowsky publish the AI FOOM debate (EDIT: in a peer-reviewed, academic journal) before 2015. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-02-22; known on 2015-01-01.

• Pill was Bupropion ( 30% confidence )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-11.

• Pill was Bupropion ( 40% confidence )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10.

• There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01.

• Pill was Bupropion ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10.

• Pill was Bupropion ( 65% confidence )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08.

• Pill was Bupropion ( 35% confidence )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-07; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-07.

• Eliezer Yudkowsky’s book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04.

• I will finish the translation of the first 13 chapters of “Facing the Singularity” until the end of february. ( 81% confidence )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-03-06.

• I’ll stop biting my nails for at least 2 consecutive weeks sometime this year. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• In 6 months I’ll have a visible sixpack. ( 73% confidence )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-08-02; judged right by wallowinmaya 6 days ago.

• In 6 months I can bench-press 100kg at least 3 times (on machine 13 in my fitness studio) ( 80% confidence )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-08-02.

• I’ll get a girlfriend this year. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• My grandmother will die this year. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• I’ll get a prescription for modafinil this year. ( 75% confidence )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• I’ll get an A in “history of psychology” ( 50% confidence )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-27; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08.

• I will sleep more than 5 hours tonight, although I took Modafinil. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-03; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-03.

• Stopping Bupropion won’t reduce my happiness by more than 10%. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-16; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-24.

• gwern will have a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI within 3 months —shminux ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known 23 days ago; judged wrong by gwern 23 days ago.

• Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01.

• No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• “There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2012-01-06.

• General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.