Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Predictions by wasistdas
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged unknown by jasticE on 2009-10-17.
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Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.
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The creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-27.