joe biden dies in presidency ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by htaussig 1 day ago; known on 2025-02-26.

humans on mars before 2030 ( 40% confidence )

Created by htaussig 1 day ago; known on 2030-02-26.

A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2070. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niconiconi 1 day ago; known on 2071-01-01.

A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2050. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by niconiconi 1 day ago; known on 2051-01-01.

A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WON'T be built before 2030. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by niconiconi 1 day ago; known on 2031-01-01.

New Glenn to fly in 2022. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ 2 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

I will be in California on the 8th of March. ( 70% confidence )

Created by EliTyre 2 days ago; known in 10 days.

I publish >=1 paper on (A | Bio)rXiv in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Moderna, Pfizer, or AstraZeneca produce an updated COVID vaccine targeting a mutation in 2021 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6007/vaccine-update-due-to-mutation/). ( 55% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] >200 million. ( 1% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-03-31.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-03-31.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 76 and 128 million (inclusive). ( 45% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-03-31.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 40 and 75 million (inclusive). ( 5% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-03-31.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] <40 million. ( 4% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-03-31.

Fewer than 40 million total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be estimated as of March 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 4% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-03-31.

9 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of June 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 30% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.

150 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered by June 1st (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/us or an alternative if this goes away). ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.

100 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered in Biden’s first 100 days, i.e. as of April 30th, 2021 (as measured by this tracker: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 45% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-04-30.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed on or after August 1st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 15% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-08-01.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between June 1st and July 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-07-31.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between April 1st and May 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 65% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-05-31.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between January 9th and March 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-03-31.

China attacks Taiwan in 2021. ( 5% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Number of people in the world living in extreme global poverty is below 743,336,050 (as measured by https://worldpoverty.io/map) on January 1st, 2022. ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Conditional on winning the primary, Andrew Yang wins the NYC mayoral election. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-11-02.

Conditional on his participation, Andrew Yang wins the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 30% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-06-22.

Andrew Yang participates (competes) in the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-06-22.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $5k ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $2k ( 25% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $1k ( 55% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $500 ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $200 ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 2% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $75k ( 5% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $20k ( 70% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $10k. ( 80% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

≥1 additional major tech company (FAANG, Twitter, Airbnb, Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Square, and others ≥~5,000 employees at my discretion) with a Bay Area HQ announces in 2021 move of HQ to either Los Angeles (actual move can happen after 2021). ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

The average degree of automation changes for key US professions in between December 2020 and January 2022 by >1 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/). ( 55% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-14.

Top price performance (in G3D Mark / $) of GPU ≥60 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark—of-gpu/). ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-14.

First Tesla Cybertruck delivered to customer in 2021. ( 45% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

SpaceX starship has a successful test launch in which it lands without major issues (defined as causing enough damage to the ship that it can’t be reused) in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Another company besides Waymo's self-driving car service open to the public (anywhere) in 2021. ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Waymo self-driving car service open to the public in a city outside of Arizona in 2021. ( 20% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Average world temperature increases relative to 2020 as measured by NASA with Lowess smoothing (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). ( 99% confidence )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-02-01.