Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 68% | 77% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 9425 | 12912 | 13435 | 13942 | 25547 | 6859 | 82120 |
Recent Predictions
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A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc about 4 hours ago; known on 2034-01-01.
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Vlad and Valerie will kiss by the end of the episode ( 60% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou about 18 hours ago; known about 17 hours ago; judged right by msonaeiou about 17 hours ago.
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None of the main 4 characters in Outer Banks will die in season 1 ( 90% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou about 18 hours ago; known on 2020-06-25.
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All 4 other invited people will come to the party tomorrow ( 65% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou about 22 hours ago; known in about 19 hours.
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Jon will not ask me to play CoD tonight ( 75% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou about 22 hours ago; known about 19 hours ago; judged right by msonaeiou about 19 hours ago.
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T will come to the party tomorrow ( 40% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou about 22 hours ago; known in about 13 hours; judged wrong by msonaeiou about 5 hours ago.
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This sore throat I’ve had for 5 days won’t turn into anything worse ( 95% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou about 22 hours ago; known in 6 days.
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I have no idea ( 50% confidence )
Created by Humuani 1 day ago; known about 11 hours ago; judged right by Humuani 1 day ago.
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Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May, and successfully delivers them to the ISS. ( 33% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 3 days ago; known in 3 days.
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Tech – iPhone 12 releases in 2020, and does not include headphones/earphones in the box in the base model. ( 50% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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Tech – iPhone 12 releases in 2020 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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Politics, India – Dr Sudhakar Rao released from mental hospital by end of May. ( 61% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 3 days ago; known in 7 days.
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Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 3 days ago; known in 3 days.
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Tech – LG releases a “swivel” two-screen smartphone which unfolds into a T shape by end of 2020 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Someone else ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amadeu 3 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Stacey Abrams ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amadeu 3 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Maggie Hassan ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amadeu 3 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Michelle Lujan Grisham ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amadeu 3 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amadeu 3 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Gretchen Whitmer ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amadeu 3 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Kamala Harris ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amadeu 3 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amadeu 3 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.
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New York City will not be subject to any executive orders restricting movement or gathering on August 1st, 2020 ( 20% confidence )
Created by panashe 3 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.
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The Australian government releases a version of the COVIDSafe app which supports Apple’s iOS contact tracing API in 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by sjy 5 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOY 2021 ( 60% confidence )
Created by enolan 10 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOM June 2021 ( 50% confidence )
Created by enolan 10 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOY 2020 ( 20% confidence )
Created by enolan 10 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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Tech – Apple announces AR or VR hardware during WWDC 2020. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known on 2020-07-01.
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Politics, UK – Court action for evictions is suspended further beyond the 25th of June. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known on 2020-06-25.
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Politics, UK – Scottish government states that people can visit friends at their homes again by end of June. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known on 2020-07-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish making Anki cards for and reading chapters 5 and 6 of “An Introduction to Godel's Theorems” by the end of the 23rd of May. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known 2 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 3 days ago.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish reading and making Anki cards for four more MIRI papers by end of May 2020. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known in 7 days.
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I have learned all words in all 7 levels of Memrise Russian. ( 3% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga 12 days ago; known on 2020-09-24.
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Bitcoin will have gone past $12,000 in the next three months. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer 12 days ago; known on 2020-08-13.
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adsfasdfasdf ( 70% confidence )
Created by daffy 14 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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Daffy will move out of the Bay Area ( 70% confidence )
Created by daffy 14 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[ Law Enforcement, Celebrity, Musician ] Tekashi69 (AKA Tekashi 6ix9ine) (Daniel Hernandez) (born May 8, 1996) to have an act of murder or attempted murder committed against him ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead 15 days ago; known on 2025-05-11.
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1330926 język rosnie? ( 75% confidence )
Created by mackiewelina 16 days ago; known on 2020-07-31.
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The English Premier League (professional football league) will cancel the remainder of the 2019/2020 season ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by panashe 16 days ago; known on 2020-07-31.
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Amash gets the R nomination in 2020, conditional on Trump not getting it. ( 2% confidence )
Created by evand 17 days ago; known on 2020-11-16.
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Politics, UK – Government announces quarantine of newly arrived air passengers by end of May. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir 17 days ago; known in 7 days; judged right by jbeshir 10 days ago.
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Fed cuts Fed Fund rate to negative before end of 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by batemancapital 17 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.
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Tuzar Skipper makes the roster ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 18 days ago; known on 2020-09-01.
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Jaylen Samuels makes the roster ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 18 days ago; known on 2020-09-01.
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NFL season starts on time ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 18 days ago; known on 2020-09-20.
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Business, US – By deadline, news has come out to the effect that Elon Musk's baby is not legally named “X Æ A-12”. This includes but is not limited to statements by either Elon Musk or Grimes to that effect, even if later contradicted again. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 19 days ago; known on 2020-07-06; judged right by JohnGreer about 4 hours ago.
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Alex isn't home ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 20 days ago; known 20 days ago; judged wrong by Adam Zerner 20 days ago.
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Morocco will require people to wears mask 2 weeks following the end of quarantine ( 60% confidence )
Created by kvfi 21 days ago; known 5 days ago.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 31st. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 24 days ago; known in 7 days.
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Politics, UK – “The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (4)” requirement to close premises and businesses is revoked or amended, or the list of affected businesses in Schedule 2 is amended, by end of May. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 24 days ago; known in 7 days.