John Bannister Goodenough will reach the age of 101 years old ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount about 13 hours ago; known on 2023-07-25.

26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by April 15, 2023 ( 70% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 1 day ago; known on 2023-04-16.

Rodrigo Pacheco will win the Brazilian Senate race in 2023, even if in a runoff election. ( 90% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra 3 days ago; known in 24 days.

I will have published at least four new reels for TikTok or comparable platform in the fourth quarter of 2023 ( 30% confidence )

Created by kadavy 7 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

I will have at least 1,000 TikTok followers by the end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )

Created by kadavy 7 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

I will finish the manuscript of Finish What Matters (or comparable book) in 2023, meaning it has been handed off to an editor, or delivered to a paying customer as a Preview Edition ( 60% confidence )

Created by kadavy 7 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

I will sell between 400 and 800 copies of 100 Word Writing Habit by the end of April. ( 70% confidence )

Created by kadavy 10 days ago; known on 2023-05-01.

By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ 13 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.

By the end of 2024, I will spend a 60 day stretch without experiencing any allergy symptoms ( 20% confidence )

Created by panashe 16 days ago; known on 2024-12-31.

I will file my 2023 tax return on time ( 95% confidence )

Created by panashe 16 days ago; known on 2023-04-19.

Transformers are the final architecture needed for AGI ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 17 days ago; known on 2099-01-01.

I won't intentionally view any pornographic material before 2028 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by panashe 17 days ago; known on 2028-01-01.

I won't intentionally view any pornographic material in 2023 ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by panashe 17 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

I will be an inventor. ( 15% confidence )

Created by account 19 days ago; known on 2029-12-31.

Statistically significant propensity to go to nearby-cheese, controlling for shortest-path-distance and position in maze relative to top-right corner (goal misgeneralization networks, behavioral tests) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout 20 days ago; known in 11 days.

My number theory seminar students will this semester do enough research that they will have what I judge to be at least one paper's worth of results. ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 23 days ago; known on 2023-06-15.

I will watch a TV show better than 'Breaking Bad' by 2090. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Reinersaltaccount 27 days ago; known on 2090-01-01.

I will watch a film better than 'Lawrence of Arabia' and '2001: A Space Odyssey' by 2090. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount 27 days ago; known on 2090-01-01.

Michelle will do pathology. ( 10% confidence )

Created by johnranin@gmail.com 28 days ago; known on 2023-07-01.

China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 30 days ago; known on 2028-01-01.

It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2023 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 20% confidence )

Created by M on 2023-01-01; known on 2024-01-02.

I will read one serious book on quantum field theory by end 2023 Depends on finishing my study of general relativity. ( 30% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

I will compete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2023 ( 35% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

I will weight less than 67kg at end 2023 currently 72kg ( 60% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

My two video podcast essays for January will average more than 37 YouTube views, by the end of February ( 70% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2022-12-30; known in 25 days.

Will I attend a party celebrating the eradication of smallpox on smallpox eradication day (9 dec) next year. The party can be organised by me or by someone else. It will count as a party if we are 4 or more people and we are doing party like things. ( 80% confidence )

Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.

Will I have significantly less back pain in one year. ( 20% confidence )

Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.

Will I pass all my exams (Micro, Macro, Maths, Statistics, Business) for this semester (1st semester of my bachelor). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-04-19.

Pepsico rolls out 100 Tesla semi by 2023 https://archive.vn/wip/CR0qy ( 5% confidence )

Created by objclone on 2022-12-16; known on 2023-12-31.

Are large language models the final paradigm before AGI? (not sure about the best way to operationalize this question yet.) ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2070-01-01.

By 2050, will there be an extension to the way we understand reality similar to the one from probability to quantum mechanics? ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2050-01-01.

Will I belief that the bridge transform is illuminating something important about epistemology by 2026? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Will it turn out by 2026 that grokking is essentially the same thing as phase shifts in thermodynamics/statistical mechanics? ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.

A second lab achieves ignition in a fusion experiment ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-12; known on 2030-01-01.

Google Search will be less popular than a product from OpenAI by 2026 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by elecnix on 2022-12-10; known on 2026-01-01.

I will meet Miss Jyväskylä in person again. ( 40% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01.

I will meet Miss Snow White in person again. ( 35% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01.

Brazilian tax reform will pass Congress before our 2024 midterm election days. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-02; known on 2024-10-06.

Marco Rubio will be Donald Trump's VP pick ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-01; known on 2025-01-01.

Cameron will be 81.6kg 1 month from when he purchased his walking pad ( 50% confidence )

Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2022-11-30; known on 2022-12-30.

I will catch up with my flashcard debt duplicate of: https://manifold.markets/EmrikGarden/will-i-have-caught-up-with-my-flash ( 15% confidence )

Created by emrik on 2022-11-25; known in 25 days.

In mid-2023, Brazil will have had mild GDP growth, but Bolsonarist bubbles will claim that these results are fake and Brazil is in a recession ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-09-01.

Will mastodonusercount@bitcoinhackers.org report more than 50 million accounts? ( 20% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2024-01-01.

Geraldo Alckmin's (Brazilian vice-president-elect) role in 2023 will be regarded as one of Lula's right arms in governance ( 70% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-19; known on 2024-01-01.

Binance goes bankrupt ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

Donald Trump runs as an Independent in the 2024 Presidential election ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-08-16.

Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.

Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-14; known on 2024-09-01.

I will post a tweet between Dec 1 2023 and Dec 7 2023 (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-12; known on 2023-12-07.

Arthur Lira (PL) will be reelected as the President of Brazil's Lower Chamber ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-10; known 1 day ago.

Adept AI's demo is way better than it can actually do (https://twitter.com/AdeptAILabs/status/1590396065072951296) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by cmessinger on 2022-11-10; known on 2023-07-02.

The federal reserve will continue raising interest rates through June 2023. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ebloch on 2022-11-09; known on 2023-07-01.

I will still think in early November 2023 that my moderate anxious personality is strongly related to my lifelong sort-of-“constant” internet usage, and in a causal way (internet → anxiety) which reflects my teenage years (10+) ( 90% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-11-08.

I will go to Oxford before the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence )

Created by mgerov on 2022-11-06; known on 2023-01-01.

By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2025, Kanye West makes another album ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.