Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 68% | 77% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 9227 | 12694 | 13159 | 13527 | 24939 | 6646 | 80192 |
Recent Predictions
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Effective Altruism – EA Global 2020 in SF is rescheduled to start on a date other than the 20th of March 2020 or cancelled. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir about 1 hour ago; known in 20 days.
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Politics, US – Michael Bloomberg wins more total delegates in the elections held on March 3, 2020 than are won by either Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg individually. ( 33% confidence )
Created by jbeshir about 23 hours ago; known in 4 days.
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Health – Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir about 24 hours ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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Politics, US – Conditional on no Democratic candidate receiving a majority of delegates by 2020 June 7, Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir about 24 hours ago; known on 2020-10-01.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by June 1, 2020 ( 65% confidence )
Created by suitecake 3 days ago; known on 2020-06-01.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by May 1, 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by suitecake 3 days ago; known on 2020-05-01.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by April 1, 2020 ( 15% confidence )
Created by suitecake 3 days ago; known on 2020-04-01.
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2020 California summer crops will fail (<= 75% of [<=$28.5 billion] 2018 harvest income according to USDA). ( 60% confidence )
Created by EnergyParade 3 days ago; known on 2021-04-15.
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The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gurgus 3 days ago; known on 2020-07-24.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] December ( 5% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] November ( 5% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] October ( 5% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] September ( 5% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] August ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] July ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] June ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] May ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] April ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] March ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] February ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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Bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto will be spent by 2075-04-05 (hacks don't count). ( 24% confidence )
Created by Mati 5 days ago; known on 2075-04-05.
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Space mining will be profitable before 2090, conditional on no existential catastrophe or win ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati 6 days ago; known on 2090-01-01.
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A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Mati 6 days ago; known on 2057-01-01.
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A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Mati 6 days ago; known on 2051-01-01.
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The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati 6 days ago; known on 2044-01-01.
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The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029. ( 52% confidence )
Created by Mati 6 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.
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A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Mati 6 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.
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Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati 6 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.
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EIther Trump or Sanders will be president, and it won't change my life at all. ( 96% confidence )
Created by ntrueman 6 days ago; known on 2020-11-04.
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I will weigh between 165-175 pounds by end of August 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by avi 7 days ago; known on 2020-08-31.
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Politics – Turkish military forces engage in conflict with Syrian, Russian, or Syrian government-allied militia forces inside Syria by deadline. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 7 days ago; known on 2020-04-01.
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Politics – Seven day “reduction in violence” starting 2020-02-21 between the Taliban and US is considered to have held by both parties. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 7 days ago; known about 12 hours ago.
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Academia, UK – Dr Jeremy Morris resigns or otherwise leaves their position as master of Trinity Hall, Cambridge by deadline. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 7 days ago; known on 2020-04-01.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 10/1 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood 8 days ago; known on 2020-10-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 8/1 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood 8 days ago; known on 2020-10-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 6/1 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood 8 days ago; known on 2020-10-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 5/1 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood 8 days ago; known on 2020-10-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 4/1 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood 8 days ago; known on 2020-10-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 3/1 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood 8 days ago; known on 2020-10-02.
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At 30, I will have never been married. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ejh3141 9 days ago; known on 2031-02-04.
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US to withdraw from Five Eyes, conditional on UK decision to incorporate Huawei technologies into their 5G telecom infrastructure ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 11 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I will finish with IoT Assignment by 11:59 pm 15th Feb. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atharva117 14 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by atharva117 13 days ago.
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Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 15 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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swinging, swinging ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter 16 days ago; known in 21 days.
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Politics, UK – Chancellor Sajid Javid is removed from their position as Chancellor by deadline. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 16 days ago; known 9 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 16 days ago.
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Politics, UK – Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is removed from their position by deadline. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 16 days ago; known 9 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 14 days ago.
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Politics, UK – Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 16 days ago; known 9 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 14 days ago.
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The “2020 Iowa Democratic Caucuses Winner?” Augur market will resolve invalid ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan 16 days ago; known on 2020-04-23.
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IV and I will have dinner tonight ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford 17 days ago; known 17 days ago; judged right by peter_hurford 16 days ago.
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Personal – I go cycling for any length of time > 0 before deadline. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 18 days ago; known 18 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 17 days ago.