Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 9803 | 13492 | 14110 | 14771 | 26665 | 7144 | 85985 |
Recent Predictions
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No further debates take place between Trump and Biden ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus about 23 hours ago; known in 15 days.
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I subjectively consider the 2020 election to have turned into a clusterfuck ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus 1 day ago; known on 2020-12-05.
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ACIW finishes the day more than 3 percent up ( 75% confidence )
Created by KwameA 1 day ago; known about 6 hours ago; judged wrong by KwameA about 23 hours ago.
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1190432 MCN maligne entartet ( 75% confidence )
Created by prosti 1 day ago; known in 1 day.
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In Finland before 2021-01-01 someone is vaccinated against COVID-19 with non-experimental vaccine approved for use in Finland ( 80% confidence )
Created by kuudes 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01 ( 70% confidence )
Created by kuudes 5 days ago; known on 2021-04-01.
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China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026 ( 30% confidence )
Created by niconiconi 5 days ago; known on 2026-01-01.
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miguelyt*b's husband's Google account was disabled for containing CSAM ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by bobpage 6 days ago; known in 11 days.
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Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) by April 15, 2022 ( 38% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 8 days ago; known on 2022-04-15.
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Gladys Berejiklian will still be the Premier of New South Wales on 1 November 2020 ( 80% confidence )
Created by sjy 9 days ago; known in 11 days.
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COVID, UK – It is legal for groups of seven non-shielding people to meet for the purposes of Christmas celebration on Christmas Day. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 11 days ago; known on 2020-12-26.
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Politics, US, California – Proposition 22 passes. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 11 days ago; known in 15 days.
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Business – Netflix worldwide subscriptions reported in their Q4 2020 quarterly earnings report is greater than than 210 million. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 11 days ago; known on 2021-01-15.
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Business – Netflix worldwide subscriptions reported in their Q4 2020 quarterly earnings report is less than 197 million. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 11 days ago; known on 2021-01-15.
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Spacex's SN8 will sucessfully complete its first flight and tests and come to a safe landing. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian 12 days ago; known on 2020-11-30.
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Politics, UK – Tavistock Judicial Review rules that a court order is necessary for the prescription of puberty blockers to teenagers as a part of GIDS. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 13 days ago; known in 11 days.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak 14 days ago; known in 14 days.
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I'll have listed all my “any” and “1month” items to sell ( 90% confidence )
Created by pdfarley 16 days ago; known 9 days ago; judged right by pdfarley 9 days ago.
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Trump is said to have made a “full recovery” from Covid and has again made light of the disease at least once. ( 80% confidence )
Created by pdfarley 16 days ago; known in 14 days.
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1-bed rent in Manhattan is at least 1% lower than it was in March 2019 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pdfarley 16 days ago; known on 2021-03-01.
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[Climate change reaches] <2c, no form of solar radiation is used (emission reduction, carbon capture) ( 25% confidence )
Created by technillogue 19 days ago; known on 2051-01-01.
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[Climate change reaches] <2c, a form of solar radiation management other than marine cloud brightening is used ( 20% confidence )
Created by technillogue 19 days ago; known on 2051-01-01.
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[Climate change reaches] <2c, marine cloud brightening is used ( 30% confidence )
Created by technillogue 19 days ago; known on 2051-01-01.
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[Climate change reaches] +2c for at least a continuous year before 2050 ( 25% confidence )
Created by technillogue 19 days ago; known on 2051-01-01.
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[Trump ] recovers and looses ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technillogue 19 days ago; known in 16 days.
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[Trump ] recovers and wins ( 31% confidence )
Created by technillogue 19 days ago; known in 16 days.
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[Trump ] dies ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by technillogue 19 days ago; known in 16 days.
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Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technillogue 19 days ago; known on 2021-01-22.
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Critical failure of the Three Gorges Dam by 2030 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom 22 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.
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Fight by end of camping ( 35% confidence )
Created by seanbas 23 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged right by seanbas 11 days ago.
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Politics, US – By November 2nd, 2020, Twitter temporarily or permanently suspends @realDonaldTrump, or @teamtrump, or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 25 days ago; known in 11 days.
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Personal – I weigh in below 62kg before end of 2020-10-15. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 25 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 6 days ago.
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Politics, UK – Brexit transition period ends 31st of December 2020 with no deal or extension. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir 25 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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Supreme Court Nomination seen through before Pres election. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by seanbas 25 days ago; known in 13 days.
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The Swiss limitation initiative will fail ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak 26 days ago; known 23 days ago; judged right by Deepak 24 days ago.
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I will weigh 205 or more in the morning ( 75% confidence )
Created by pdfarley 26 days ago; known on 2021-02-22.
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At least one card from Temur Adventures will be banned as of next Friday. ( 30% confidence )
Created by aarongertler 26 days ago; known 19 days ago; judged wrong by aarongertler 17 days ago.
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https://appfairness.org or a similar campaign gets Apple to either lower their fee or pull their own apps from the store ( 60% confidence )
Created by grin 27 days ago; known on 2021-09-24.
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Stripe has an IPO before 3/1/22 ( 67% confidence )
Created by finback 27 days ago; known on 2022-03-01.
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Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital 28 days ago; known in 20 days.
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My poker money will be positive by the end of October ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by fandangos 29 days ago; known in 10 days.
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Whoever loses the American Presisential 2020 election will accept the results and there will not be any constitutional crisis or attempt to overturn the vote. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian 30 days ago; known on 2021-01-21.
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Basement construction will be finished by Oct 2 EOD ( 55% confidence )
Created by grin 30 days ago; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by grin 16 days ago.
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VW.OS is canceled or sold+renamed in 5 years ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc 30 days ago; known on 2025-09-20.
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Politics, Thailand – Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha resigns before the end of 2020. ( 15% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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COVID, UK – Pubs have restricted opening hours (including but not requiring full closure), at the national level, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently lifted. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-19; known 20 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 17 days ago.
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erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by finback on 2020-09-18; known on 2024-05-01.
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The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-16; known in 14 days.
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9252916 Liposarkom ( 60% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2020-09-15; known 29 days ago.