news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage about 13 hours ago; known on 2019-01-01.

I will get no worse than a B- for any class this term ( 60% confidence )

Created by regex 3 days ago; known on 2018-01-17.

I will get four A's this term ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by regex 3 days ago; known on 2018-01-17.

I will get at least two A's this term ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by regex 3 days ago; known on 2018-01-17.

BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens 4 days ago; known on 2022-09-16.

Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 4 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 4 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.

Wogs are less likely to listen to authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl or not limited to < 50% compliance ) ( 33% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 7 days ago; known on 2100-01-01.

Wogs are more likely to listen to the right kind of authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( in > 65% compliance ) ( 29% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 7 days ago; known on 2100-01-01.

Wogs do not differ, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl but not limited to 50-65% compliance ) ( 40% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 7 days ago; known on 2100-01-01.

S.M. is gay ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 10 days ago; known on 2027-09-01.

Ubuntu 18.04 released, not totally unusable ( 87% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 10 days ago; known on 2018-05-01.

1.39$/L gas in tbay ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 11 days ago; known in 12 days.

Taylor Swift's Look What You Made Me Do will reach 1 billion views on YouTube in fewer days than Adele's Hello. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik 12 days ago; known on 2018-02-02.

[Gaydar] Dean-Charles Chapman comes out as queer ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead 12 days ago; known on 2067-09-08.

[Gaydar] Isaac Hempstead-Wright comes out as queer ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead 12 days ago; known on 2067-09-08.

Utah public lands lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 15 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

US President Zuckerberg ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 16 days ago; known on 2020-12-01.

James Damore running his own business ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 17 days ago; known on 2018-03-03.

texting & driving illegal in most canadian provinces AND most vehicles (66%+) on the road fitted with safety features rendering such laws irrelevant ( 81% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 17 days ago; known on 2027-09-04.

Keith Schiller leaves the White House before the end of 2017 ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead 18 days ago; known on 2018-01-05.

“SaskPower plans to reduce emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. By that year, it wants to have added an additional 1,600 megawatts of wind power over 2017 levels.” ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by saskboy 19 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

Bitcoin was designed by a group of mathematicians as a side project while working for the NSA. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 19 days ago; known on 2027-01-01.

The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.

On 2018-01-01, Open Philanthropy Research Analyst Ajeya Cotra thinks CEA’s support of EA student groups has improved since September 2016 (conditional on Ajeya feeling she has enough evidence to make such a judgment) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

On 2018-01-01, Nick Beckstead believes that cause prioritization working groups at universities are a cost-effective way of identifying new talent in the EA community (cond. on there being at least 3 such working groups, which he thinks is likely) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Nick Beckstead considers EA Global 2017 better executed than EA Global 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2027-04-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that standard marketing and outreach (e.g. online ads) result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that the Doing Good Better book giveaway results on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth) ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] More than 7,500 (more than 3x growth) ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $750,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2019-02-01.

[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $1,250,000 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2019-02-01.

80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 21 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.