China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by najdorf 2 days ago; known on 2025-12-31.

Going to finish 2 books in April ( 90% confidence )

Created by Alk 5 days ago; known in 19 days.

I am going to resign before the end of May ( 100% confidence )

Created by Alk 5 days ago; known on 2021-05-31.

I am going to produce more than 20 kg tomatoes ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alk 5 days ago; known on 2021-09-01.

Donald Trump starts a new political party before the end of 2024 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Levenbrech 6 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.

Flying cars by 2025 ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by robbins042 7 days ago; known 6 days ago.

I will graduate College ( 100% confidence )

Created by SRA311CK 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-16.

Over 50% of current drivers will be using auto driven cars.1 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Yoro 8 days ago; known on 2040-01-01.

I get a COVID vaccine before the end of April ( 60% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus 9 days ago; known in 19 days.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] none of these parties ( 1% confidence )

Created by Konsti 9 days ago; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] FDP (liberal party) ( 2% confidence )

Created by Konsti 9 days ago; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Die Linke (socialist party) ( 3% confidence )

Created by Konsti 9 days ago; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] AfD (nationalist party) ( 2% confidence )

Created by Konsti 9 days ago; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] SPD (social democratic party) ( 12% confidence )

Created by Konsti 9 days ago; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Bündnis '90 die Grünen (green party) ( 40% confidence )

Created by Konsti 9 days ago; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] CDU or CSU (conservative party) ( 40% confidence )

Created by Konsti 9 days ago; known on 2022-03-01.

[Covid origin:] The virus is definitively found to be a bioweapon, released deliberately or accidently by 2023 (<1% chance) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo 10 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] A natural origin near Wuhan is found for the virus by 2023 ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo 10 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] The origin of COVID will still be indeterminate on 1 Jan 2023 ( 65% confidence )

Created by The_Offwo 10 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by The_Offwo 10 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

I will lose my virginity before the Turing test is passed (operationalized as the $25,000 Loebner Prize) ( 50% confidence )

Created by lazydope 12 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

I will still be a NEET (including retired early) on my 30th birthday ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lazydope 12 days ago; known on 2029-03-01.

I will be unemployed during the entirety of 2021 ( 75% confidence )

Created by lazydope 12 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 24 ( 35% confidence )

Created by lazydope 12 days ago; known on 2023-03-01.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 23 ( 25% confidence )

Created by lazydope 12 days ago; known on 2022-03-01.

I will get a first vaccine shot by end of may ( 75% confidence )

Created by dstephens99 12 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.

I (a VA resident in phase 1c) will receive my first vaccine dose on or before April 22. ( 25% confidence )

Created by dmwit 12 days ago; known in 11 days.

Will we be able to upload our consciousness to the cloud by the year 3000? ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by kadavy 13 days ago; known on 3000-01-01.

Heike Behnke gct ( 80% confidence )

Created by prosti 16 days ago; known 10 days ago.

SpaceX to land a version of Starship on Mars by the end of 2026. ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 18 days ago; known on 2027-01-01.

The AstraZeneca vaccine will receive an EUA for use in the US by May 1st ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lithp 20 days ago; known in 20 days.

Burning Man 2021 will happen (some time this fall at least 10k people will simultaneously be in Black Rock Desert) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lithp 20 days ago; known on 2021-10-01.

I won't wake up sick tommorrow ( 90% confidence )

Created by sallatik 20 days ago; known 19 days ago.

Politics, US – Derek Chauvin convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) by 1st of June 2021. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir 21 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.

humans on mars by 2030 ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig 22 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

Politics, Europe – EU or a member state thereof restricts export of Pfizer vaccines, to the UK, with a justification relating to the UK not exporting enough AZ vaccine to the EU or a member state thereof, by end of April 2021. ( 27% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 25 days ago; known in 19 days.