Twitter engages in purging/mass censorship of marxists, anarchists, feminists or hacktivists / “next year it's anarchists or hacktivists or feminists or Marxists”-@bob ( 57% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 about 22 hours ago; known on 2018-08-18.

Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Antifa ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 1 day ago; known on 2017-12-31.

Antifa goes one step “too far”, commits act of unmistakeable err, is publicly roasted across the spectrum, and becomes much less prominent as a thing compared to 2017 ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 1 day ago; known on 2027-08-17.

Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Neo-Nazis killing people at political protests or rallies. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ 2 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.

Within the three week period starting after three months after a public launch of LessWrong 2.0, the EA Forum will still have more unique new non-spam posts than LessWrong 2.0, not counting cross-posts that are originally posted somewhere else first. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford 3 days ago; known on 2017-12-16.

Sargon of Akkad gets cut from youtube ( 66% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 3 days ago; known on 2018-08-15.

My FOIA request for the Szlackin report will result in me getting at least a redacted copy of the report before the end of 2017 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel 4 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.

The High Court of Australia will rule that the Government's proposal to conduct a postal plebiscite on same sex marriage is an invalid exercise of executive power ( 75% confidence )

Created by sjy 4 days ago; known in 24 days.

North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of August 2017 ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead 5 days ago; known in 17 days.

Connor McGregor will lose against Floyd Mayweather ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by liamesteban 5 days ago; known in 7 days.

Charlottesville car driver supports Trump ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 6 days ago; known on 2019-07-09.

Charlottesville car driver shown to be on legally prescribeable medication (such as SSRIs) ( 66% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 6 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

Charlottesville car driver shown to be taking money from Soros ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 6 days ago; known on 2019-07-09.

I will be admitted to the 2017 Envision Conference ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel 6 days ago; known on 2017-12-01.

ladybugs found to return to their birthplace, like salmon ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 6 days ago; known on 2026-01-01.

Koback will use collection of state voter roles to coordinate voter suppression activities ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by atomicspaceman 6 days ago; known on 2018-11-10.

Trump does not refer to Charlottesville Car Attack on protesters as a “Terrorist Attack” or those who did it as “Terrorists” ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 6 days ago; known on 2017-10-17.

[North Korea launches at Guam] at least one missile ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known in 22 days.

[North Korea launches at Guam] at least two missiles ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known in 22 days.

[North Korea launches at Guam] at least three missiles ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known in 22 days.

[North Korea launches at Guam] at least four missiles ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known in 22 days.

North Korea fires missiles at Guam, at least 1 casualty ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 8 days ago; known in 12 days.

The year end ATP number one for 2017 will be Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal ( 100% confidence )

Created by gurgus 10 days ago; known on 2017-11-19.

Rafael Nadal will be the year end number one in 2017 ( 66% confidence )

Created by gurgus 10 days ago; known on 2017-11-19.

There will not be another general election in the UK in 2017 ( 80% confidence )

Created by gurgus 10 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.

Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gurgus 10 days ago; known on 2020-11-03.

Donald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by gurgus 10 days ago; known on 2020-11-03.

Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gurgus 10 days ago; known on 2017-11-26.

The company I am interning at will hire Ildar ( 30% confidence )

Created by crabman 11 days ago; known in 29 days.

The company I am interning at will try to hire me. (if they ask me whether I want to work for them and I say no, it still counts) ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman 11 days ago; known in 13 days.

The company I am interning at will hire Yaroslav, who is another intern. He seems hardworking. ( 50% confidence )

Created by crabman 11 days ago; known in 29 days.

Terrorism in the Middle East Will Decline By Half By 2040. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PlacidPlatypus 11 days ago; known on 2040-12-16.

Bitcoin reaches $5000/BTC at some point on Coinbase before 2020 ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Afforess 12 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

I will not complain to Uhaul or my insurance company about damage to/theft of the contents of my Uboxes ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel 12 days ago; known in 13 days.

Firefox browser share will be below 5.1% for December 2017 as reported by W3Counter ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel 12 days ago; known on 2018-01-15.

Fox News cuts ties with Eric Bolling ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by two2thehead 14 days ago; known on 2018-08-06.

Zuckerberg in prison ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 14 days ago; known on 2020-07-31.

Conor McGregor wins against Floyd Mayweather Jr. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by bendini 15 days ago; known in 8 days.

1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2019 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by icrbow 16 days ago; known on 2019-12-30.

1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2018 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by icrbow 16 days ago; known on 2018-12-30.