I will test negative for covid around noon on 12/1 ( 35% confidence )

Created by dmz about 7 hours ago; known in about 20 hours.

Cameron will be 81.6kg 1 month from when he purchased his walking pad ( 50% confidence )

Created by johnranin@gmail.com about 16 hours ago; known in 29 days.

PRC ends Zero-Covid Policy ( 16% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 3 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

I will run semi-supervised Cityscapes-Vistas experiments by 2022-12-2, 20:30. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Ivan1248 4 days ago; known in 1 day.

CME Group will claim the video of their CEO stating that he bribed a CFTC regulator was digitally manipulated. ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 5 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

I will catch up with my flashcard debt duplicate of: https://manifold.markets/EmrikGarden/will-i-have-caught-up-with-my-flash ( 15% confidence )

Created by emrik 6 days ago; known on 2023-03-01.

I will meet Miss Sheep in person again. ( 10% confidence )

Created by niplav 9 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

I will meet Miss Checkers in person again. ( 35% confidence )

Created by niplav 9 days ago; known on 2023-06-01.

I will meet Miss Propaganda in person again. ( 5% confidence )

Created by niplav 9 days ago; known on 2023-06-01.

I will meet Miss Piano in person again. ( 30% confidence )

Created by niplav 9 days ago; known on 2023-06-01.

I will meet Miss Pink Panther in person again. ( 40% confidence )

Created by niplav 9 days ago; known on 2023-06-01.

In mid-2023, Brazil will have had mild GDP growth, but Bolsonarist bubbles will claim that these results are fake and Brazil is in a recession ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra 9 days ago; known on 2023-09-01.

Will mastodonusercount@bitcoinhackers.org report more than 50 million accounts? ( 20% confidence )

Created by niplav 10 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

Miss Propaganda will reply to my feeler text ( 35% confidence )

Created by niplav 10 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

Twitter will suffer a large scale (global or multi-continent) outage lasting more than 1 hour on or before March 31, 2023 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 10 days ago; known on 2023-04-01.

Geraldo Alckmin's (Brazilian vice-president-elect) role in 2023 will be regarded as one of Lula's right arms in governance ( 70% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra 11 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

I will have at least 50 followers on Mastodon by December 31. ( 25% confidence )

Created by danielfilan 12 days ago; known on 2022-12-31.

Twitter will be online on the 15th of December 2022. On that date, I will be able to post a tweet and other people will be able to see it. ( 88% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by danielfilan 13 days ago; known in 15 days.

Binance goes bankrupt ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 13 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

Donald Trump runs as an Independent in the 2024 Presidential election ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by firaskanaan 14 days ago; known on 2024-08-16.

Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by firaskanaan 14 days ago; known on 2024-03-16.

Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 17 days ago; known on 2024-09-01.

I will post a tweet between Dec 1 2023 and Dec 7 2023 (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by danielfilan 18 days ago; known on 2023-12-07.

Sam Bankman-Fried will be arrested before January 1, 2024, on charges related to the (as of 2022-11-10) liquidity crunch at FTX. ( 54% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pmberg 20 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

Arthur Lira (PL) will be reelected as the President of Brazil's Lower Chamber ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra 20 days ago; known on 2023-02-02.

Adept AI's demo is way better than it can actually do (https://twitter.com/AdeptAILabs/status/1590396065072951296) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by cmessinger 21 days ago; known on 2023-07-02.

The federal reserve will continue raising interest rates through June 2023. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ebloch 22 days ago; known on 2023-07-01.

I will still think in early November 2023 that my moderate anxious personality is strongly related to my lifelong sort-of-“constant” internet usage, and in a causal way (internet → anxiety) which reflects my teenage years (10+) ( 90% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra 22 days ago; known on 2023-11-08.

Lula will not name a liberal Treasure secretary ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra 23 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

I will go to Oxford before the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence )

Created by mgerov 24 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 29 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 29 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2025, Kanye West makes another album ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 29 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, Kanye West states that he regrets his recent antisemitic statements ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 29 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, Kanye West states that he has begun to take a mood-stabilizing medication again ( 60% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 29 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.

t ( 30% confidence )

Created by tara on 2022-10-31; known on 2022-10-31.

Official US death total from covid to be at least 1,250,000 by March 1, 2023 ( 58% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-29; known on 2023-03-01.

The climate book will contain 1 sentence devoted to how challeging it will be to solve how we produce reliable electrical energy. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ElliotDavies on 2022-10-29; known 26 days ago.

Case-Shiller National (CSUSHPINSA) will not increase above 303.757 until 30-yr fixed (MORTGAGE30US) is below 6.5% for the prior month, through June 2023. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-10-28; known on 2023-07-01.

Human-level AI by 2040 (Richard Sutton: Eyes On The Prize talk, 2022) ( 50% confidence )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] never ( 10% confidence )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] after 2040 ( 15% confidence )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2040 ( 50% confidence )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2030 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

I will get a grade of 1.7 or better in the final exam of Probability Theory ( 50% confidence )

Created by aarmai19 on 2022-10-26; known on 2023-04-01.

PRC blockade of Taiwan by sea and air ( 40% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-10-26; known on 2027-01-01.

At least one of upcoming November, December, January, February, March, April or May to have at least 30,000 covid deaths in the US, or at least one pair of consecutive months with at least 50,000 covid deaths. ( 54% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-23; known on 2023-06-15.

I will not go to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas again in 2023 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-12-01.

Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 25,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of 2022. ( 70% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-01-01.

I'm going to manage to figure out how to align what I want to want and what I do want by the end of the year ( 70% confidence )

Created by rajlego on 2022-10-14; known on 2023-01-01.

I'm going to get blocks setup so that i check messaging once a day before 5 pm on laptop/only use phone for them by next Wednesday ( 80% confidence )

Created by rajlego on 2022-10-14; known on 2022-10-19.

test ( 10% confidence )

Created by tara on 2022-10-14; known on 2022-10-14.

Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 478494147? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the modal forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.64 days? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the mean forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1613.62 days? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the median forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.64 days? ( 48% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1.42e+49? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the modal forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.18 days? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the mean forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1.93e+23 days? ( 45% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the median forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.18 days? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.0388? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.00305? ( 83% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.