Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11653 | 16240 | 16689 | 17377 | 31095 | 7982 | 101036 |
Recent Predictions
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Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 5 days ago; known on 2023-09-28.
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Trump indicted in Georgia between August 4 – 18 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 5 days ago; known on 2023-08-19.
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I in 4 years ( 85% confidence )
Created by John Smith 7 days ago; known on 2027-05-23.
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I in 3 years ( 70% confidence )
Created by John Smith 7 days ago; known on 2026-05-23.
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I in 2 years ( 50% confidence )
Created by John Smith 7 days ago; known on 2025-05-23.
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Garrett's activation additions work for a residual network trained on mnist. ( 85% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout 8 days ago; known 8 days ago; judged unknown by TurnTrout 7 days ago.
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MNIST 1->3 steering vector makes non-1 digits come out as “3” ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout 14 days ago; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by TurnTrout 14 days ago.
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MNIST 1->3 steering vector transfers to other 1s ( 35% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout 14 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged right by TurnTrout 14 days ago.
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Optimized wedding vector works really well ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout 14 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged right by TurnTrout 14 days ago.
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Elections will be held in October 2023 in Pakistan? ( 75% confidence )
Created by Najoomi 16 days ago; known on 2023-10-08.
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Within 8 months of serial research, a competent team can find a “secret spilling” steering vector which gets a smart model to give up in-context secrets across a variety of situations. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout 17 days ago; known on 2025-05-13.
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Bakhmut completely in Ukrainian control by June 30, 2023 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ 18 days ago; known on 2023-06-30.
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David Udell can get both anger and wedding vectors to superimpose in GPT2XL within 20 minutes, showing qualitative effects from both ActivationAdditions ( 45% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout 26 days ago; known 25 days ago; judged wrong by TurnTrout 25 days ago.
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Adding " wedding" to the middle of ~20-token prompts, will, on average, increase wedding-related wordcount relative to adding to the beginning or end. ( 60% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout 29 days ago; known 28 days ago.
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First Republic Bank to enter receivership / FDIC control before May 8, 2023 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 29 days ago; known 22 days ago; judged right by jacobgreenleaf 20 days ago.
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Russia to lose at least one submarine at sea due to combat or accident by May 1, 2033. ( 68% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-27; known on 2033-05-01.
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I will reach 200,000 lifetime book sales by May 2025 (currently 104k) ( 50% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-04-26; known on 2025-05-01.
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I will reach 200,000 lifetime book sales by May 2024 (currently 104k) ( 10% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-04-26; known on 2024-05-01.
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Vanguard will successfully unlock my account on Friday or before ( 40% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2023-04-26; known on 2023-04-29; judged wrong by dmz 29 days ago.
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Vanguard support will call me back when they promised to. (9am Friday) ( 60% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2023-04-26; known on 2023-04-28; judged wrong by dmz on 2023-04-28.
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example prediction test ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by speeze on 2023-04-25; known on 2023-04-25.
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I'll be able to export my data from PredictionBook in a sensible format. ( 60% confidence )
Created by speeze on 2023-04-25; known on 2023-04-25; judged wrong by speeze on 2023-04-25.
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Software engineer salaries in the United States are going to plummet to the average of the global work force within the next 24 months ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-23; known on 2025-05-15.
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Weighted prompt superposition works in Vicuna on first few tries. ( 60% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21; known on 2023-04-22; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21.
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Uli got AVE to work on Vicuna-13b ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21; known on 2023-04-21; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21.
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https://pastebin.com/F9jwvTPB will only subtly modify completions relative to normal. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21; known on 2023-04-21; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21.
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PV yield in the 5-8 kWh range on 17th ( 80% confidence )
Created by freeminator on 2023-04-16; known on 2023-04-18; judged right by freeminator on 2023-04-18.
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[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The + 64 coefficient additions generally produce less wedding-focused completions than +4 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14.
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[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The +/- 64 coefficient additions produce less coherent behavior ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14.
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[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] Subtracting this “wedding vector” often increases the incidence of wedding-discussion ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14.
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[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The second half of the model is harder to intervene on and get wedding outputs ( 80% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14.
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[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] the first prompt tends to elicit more wedding words than the second (about Batman) ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14.
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I will have a paper published within 1 year on k near perfect numbers focusing on k=2. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2024-04-14.
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Earth's magnetic poles reverse by 2047. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2047-01-01.
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there is an anti-AI rent seeking bill (something that protects an industry for non-ethical/eschaton-deterring reasons) in the next year ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by norelation on 2023-04-12; known on 2024-04-12.
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AI x-risk is supported by right-wing US political actors, conditional on it becoming a sufficiently mainstream political issue and ignoring roughly bipartisan consensus ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-10; known on 2025-04-10.
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Griswold v. Connecticut to be overturned by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-09; known on 2025-01-01.
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Uli is not subscribed to Discord Nitro? ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-09; known on 2023-04-09; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-04-09.
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People in the West will be largely “living in 15-minute prison camps, eating bugs, and living in pods.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Test ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2023-04-08; known on 2023-04-08.
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26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by October 18, 2023 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-07; known on 2023-10-18.
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My long tweet about making predictions will get 2,000–10,000 impressions in the first 48 hours (without a self RT) ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2023-04-06; known on 2023-04-08; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-04-09.
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StuntID will not a year state that they were overly pessimistic about the improvement rate of AI systems. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-06; known on 2024-04-07.
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It will rain ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by nadrien on 2023-04-06; known on 2023-04-07.
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I will publish at least one scientific paper in a peer-reviewed journal before the end of 2023. ( 40% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05; known on 2024-01-01.
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A-4 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.
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A-3 was caffeine ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.
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A-2 was caffeine ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.
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A-1 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.
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The “Bush did 9/11” – " " vector (block 23) works in order to generate conspiratorial completions for the prompt “Barack Obama was born in”. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04; known on 2023-04-04; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04.
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It will rain tomorrow in New York ( 60% confidence )
Created by jjb7077 on 2023-04-02; known on 2023-04-03.
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Artificial Superintelligence Emerges before 1st of January 2030 ( 52% confidence )
Created by rudyon on 2023-04-01; known on 2030-01-01.
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Средний вес 28.04-3.05 будет ниже чем 85кг ( 75% confidence )
Created by Mckiev on 2023-04-01; known 27 days ago; judged wrong by Mckiev 27 days ago.
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I will sell 500–900 copies during MMT's official five-day BookBub Featured Deal period (provided I spend less than $800 in supplemental ads) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-04-05; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-04-07.
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The new host of “The Daily Show” will be Hasan Minhaj ( 60% confidence )
Created by greene on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-07-01.
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Artificial intelligence radically disrupts the global economy within 2 years ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-28; known on 2025-04-01.
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test ( 100% confidence )
Created by trey on 2023-03-28; known on 2023-03-28.
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TikTok is banned from Android and Apple app stores in the US by 2024 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-28; known on 2024-01-01; judged unknown by GeoffR on 2023-04-03.
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Netanyahu steps down as prime minister any time between now and 2024 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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The U.S. federal debt ceiling is raised on or before June 30, 2023 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-25; known on 2023-07-01.
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The United States will monetize its sovereign debt by the end of 2023. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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The United States will default (not monetize) on its sovereign debt by the end of 2023. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will visit this site again in the following week. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rudyon on 2023-03-25; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by rudyon on 2023-04-01.
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Bridget will visit the house this w/end ( 75% confidence )
Created by freeminator on 2023-03-24; known on 2023-03-27; judged wrong by freeminator on 2023-03-24.
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Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Musrang on 2023-03-21; known on 2027-01-01.
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SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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“The first discovery of extraterrestrial life will be someplace other than on a planet or on a satellite of a planet.” Long-Bets I disagree. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2100-03-20.
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(Habits) >70% of habits completed for the week of Mar 20 ( 50% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-03-20; known on 2023-03-27.
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S will tell me they're not ready for Thursday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ygg on 2023-03-19; known on 2023-03-20; judged wrong by Ygg on 2023-03-20.
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In 20 years, Eve and I will agree that the Long Wharf area of New Haven looks substantially aesthetically nicer than it does right now. ( 61% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-17; known on 2043-03-16.
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The research task I set for the start of today will take less than 2 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Kaivu on 2023-03-16; known on 2023-03-16; judged wrong by Kaivu on 2023-03-16.
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I will beat the world speedrunning record in I wanna find my destiny by the end of 2023 ( 40% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2023-03-15; known on 2024-01-01.
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In three yeasr, gantork and I will be in agreement that robotics have not yet had the sort of fast progression they envisioned. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-15; known on 2026-03-15.
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Subtracting the mouse-translation vector will make lower mouse go into lower wall, or vice-versa for addition (make the upper mouse stop at imagined wall). ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-14; known on 2023-03-14; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-03-30.
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By 2028 there will be a biological catastrophe worse than COVID ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2029-01-01.
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The Russo-Ukrainian war is still ongoing ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2028-02-24.
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The run on Silicon Valley Bank triggers a stock market crash, defined as the S&P 500 falling to 3,000 or less (~20% loss) during 2023 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-13; known on 2024-01-01.
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Cheese vector and top-right vector will compose in Procgen maze environment (i.e. you can non-destructively apply both at once, and get at least some of their effects). ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-13; known on 2023-03-15; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-30.
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Specific attempt at cheese vector will work ( 10% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-13; known on 2023-03-13; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-03-13.
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Elon Musk buys Silicon Valley Bank before April 30 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-04-30; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount 26 days ago.
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At least one more bank will be taken over by FDIC next week ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-03-17; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-17.
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The 'Attack on Titan' anime has an “AOE”, i.e. an ending which diverges significantly from the manga ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-10-07.
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Cr1TiKaL says 'Attack on Titan' has a bad ending ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-10-07.
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X vector works in environments besides Procgen ( 97% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-11; known in 12 days; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-30.
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If you are still in touch with kyle, then I predict that whatever relationship he is in with this guy will end within 1.5 years ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by chris.walton113@gmail.com on 2023-03-11; known on 2024-03-11.
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Modifying a maze env to have an extra-high up top right pathway, compared to the normal version, and then taking a top-right vector over this — will work comparably well to the cheese vector. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-10; known on 2023-03-10; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-10.
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Donald Trump is indicted anywhere in the US, for any reason ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-30.
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Sam and Toby will win the race to reach the bottom of New Zealand. [please only predict if you don't have a Nebula subscription] ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2023-03-09; known 28 days ago.
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Cheese vector works on at least 50% of alternate size pretrained models, as qualitatively determined by me. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-08; known on 2023-03-08; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-09.
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Eliza Bender says “like” more than 30 times in one comment today (3/8) in Social Theory ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ethanmg01 on 2023-03-08; known on 2023-03-08; judged right by ethanmg01 on 2023-03-08.
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status.twitter.com SSL certificate will be fixed before April 1, 2023 ( 50% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-07; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-02.
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The weather will mess up unloading on Thurs or Fri, causing a delay and/or a very late evening (>6pm). ( 5% confidence )
Created by freeminator on 2023-03-07; known on 2023-03-11; judged wrong by freeminator on 2023-03-11.
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I will get Henry or Austin to play SC2 by end of week. ( 20% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-03-12; judged right by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-23.
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I will become Masters at SC2 by end of Summer, 2023 ( 60% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-09-01.
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I will move out of Austin by 2025 ( 25% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2026-01-01.
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Trump becoming President in 2025. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2025-01-22.
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Twitter outage resolved by 5pm PT today ( 80% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-03-07; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-07.
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There will be a US military program to use AI in order to reduce exposure of US soldiers (pilots, analysts) to shocking Drone video footage so that their mental health is preserved. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2028-12-31.
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Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2027-10-01.
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New license or license type (like Creative Commons) will be created to try preventing unauthorized use of one own's written, picture, or video material to train AI (eg. LLM) ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-12-31.