PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	49%	58%	66%	76%	88%	93%
Sample Size	7418	10130	10037	10199	20874	5574	64232

Not more than 100 mio. people will have died of attacks by nuclear weapons by 2061. ( 90% confidence )

Created by pranomostro 2 days ago; known on 2061-01-01.

Politics, UK – Theresa May is subject to a leadership challenge before 2019-01-01. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.

Politics, US – Before 1 January 2019, either house of Congress passes a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.

Politics, Korea – Before 1 January 2019, South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits Pyongyang. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.

Politics, US – A new Supreme Court Justice is confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known on 2018-11-06.

Improve my basal metabolic rate from 1497 to 1800+ in 12 months ( 7% confidence )

Created by arun 6 days ago; known on 2019-09-15.

He's (referring to Rurik) not gonna get one deliverable done. Chin said this on 10:41:04 PM IST ( 100% confidence )

Created by volis 7 days ago; known on 2018-11-16.

Personal – I still have a weekly cycle out as a goal for the week starting 2018-12-03. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 8 days ago; known on 2018-12-03.

A Democratic House will impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections ( 22% confidence )

Created by lukefreeman 10 days ago; known on 2020-11-10.

Politics, Central America – Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 13 days ago; known on 2019-06-01.

US, Politics – The “Fahrenheit 11/9” movie ranks 2nd in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 13 days ago; known on 2019-09-28.

US, Politics – The “Fahrenheit 11/9” movie ranks 1st in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 13 days ago; known in 7 days.

US, Sports – A team from the American League wins the 2018 World Series. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 13 days ago; known on 2018-11-01.

Personal – I buy an ebike conversion kit (defined as one or more parts with the intent of fitting them to my bike to convert it into an ebike) before the end of 2018 ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 14 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.

given S continues taking s in the next three months, they will blackout at least once in the next three months. will return inconclusive if the supposition is false. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Somni 16 days ago; known on 2018-12-04.

S's endo gives her a prescription for b or c ( 20% confidence )

Created by Somni 16 days ago; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by Somni 15 days ago.

The World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will declare an influenza pandemic before 2019? ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukefreeman 17 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.

Amazon superará a Cencosud en Sudamérica dentro de 5 años. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com 17 days ago; known on 2023-09-03.

The cost of one TFLOPS will be more than $0.9375 by 2029. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pranomostro 18 days ago; known on 2029-03-02.

There will be less people cryogenically frozen in China than in the US by 2028. ( 90% confidence )

Created by pranomostro 19 days ago; known on 2028-08-13.

Tempur Sealy International Inc stock will fall 15% below the current price of 55.39 in the next six months and remain (at least) below 5% of the current price at the end of the six months ( 65% confidence )

Created by prophetofprofit 20 days ago; known on 2019-03-03.

Seth Frotman's concerns about student loan lending practices will be vindicated ( 99% confidence )

Created by prophetofprofit 22 days ago; known on 2030-01-31.

Turtle Island Foods (owners of the brand “Tofurky”) lawsuit against the new Missouri meat terminology law will fail, at least before appeals ( 60% confidence )

Created by prophetofprofit 22 days ago; known on 2020-11-16.

23 or more US senators will by women by the end of January 2019 ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukefreeman 22 days ago; known on 2019-01-31.

The combination of VMware and Dell will proceed (in spite of the October shareholder vote) with Dell paying no more than $22 billion in cash and stock to buy back the tracking stock securities that correspond with Dell's interest in VMware. ( 75% confidence )

Created by prophetofprofit 23 days ago; known on 2019-06-30.

A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by lukefreeman 24 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by lukefreeman 24 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

[In 2018 I will read at least] 80 books ( 99% confidence )