Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11503 | 16059 | 16528 | 17223 | 30943 | 7969 | 100225 |
Recent Predictions
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John Bannister Goodenough will reach the age of 101 years old ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount about 13 hours ago; known on 2023-07-25.
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26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by April 15, 2023 ( 70% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 1 day ago; known on 2023-04-16.
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Rodrigo Pacheco will win the Brazilian Senate race in 2023, even if in a runoff election. ( 90% confidence )
Created by DanCoimbra 3 days ago; known in 24 days.
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I will have published at least four new reels for TikTok or comparable platform in the fourth quarter of 2023 ( 30% confidence )
Created by kadavy 7 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will have at least 1,000 TikTok followers by the end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )
Created by kadavy 7 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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Created by kadavy 7 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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Manchester United beat Reading in the 4th round of the 2022/23 FA Cup ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by panashe 10 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged right by panashe 4 days ago.
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Manchester United beat Nottingham Forest in the first leg of their 2022/23 EFL Cup semi-final ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by panashe 10 days ago; known 9 days ago; judged right by panashe 9 days ago.
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I will sell between 400 and 800 copies of 100 Word Writing Habit by the end of April. ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy 10 days ago; known on 2023-05-01.
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By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ 13 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.
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German – US – Ukraine tank deal occurs ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 16 days ago; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 7 days ago.
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By the end of 2024, I will spend a 60 day stretch without experiencing any allergy symptoms ( 20% confidence )
Created by panashe 16 days ago; known on 2024-12-31.
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I will file my 2023 tax return on time ( 95% confidence )
Created by panashe 16 days ago; known on 2023-04-19.
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Transformers are the final architecture needed for AGI ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 17 days ago; known on 2099-01-01.
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I won't intentionally view any pornographic material before 2028 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by panashe 17 days ago; known on 2028-01-01.
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I won't intentionally view any pornographic material in 2023 ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by panashe 17 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will be an inventor. ( 15% confidence )
Created by account 19 days ago; known on 2029-12-31.
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Statistically significant propensity to go to nearby-cheese, controlling for shortest-path-distance and position in maze relative to top-right corner (goal misgeneralization networks, behavioral tests) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout 20 days ago; known in 11 days.
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My number theory seminar students will this semester do enough research that they will have what I judge to be at least one paper's worth of results. ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 23 days ago; known on 2023-06-15.
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I will watch a TV show better than 'Breaking Bad' by 2090. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 27 days ago; known on 2090-01-01.
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I will watch a film better than 'Lawrence of Arabia' and '2001: A Space Odyssey' by 2090. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 27 days ago; known on 2090-01-01.
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Michelle will do pathology. ( 10% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com 28 days ago; known on 2023-07-01.
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Ukrainians will maintain control of Bakhmut through to January 31st ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by branperr 28 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged unknown by chemotaxis101 25 days ago.
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Kevin McCarthy becomes speaker of the house ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 29 days ago; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 27 days ago.
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China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 30 days ago; known on 2028-01-01.
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It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2023 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 20% confidence )
Created by M on 2023-01-01; known on 2024-01-02.
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I will read one serious book on quantum field theory by end 2023 Depends on finishing my study of general relativity. ( 30% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will compete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2023 ( 35% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will weight less than 67kg at end 2023 currently 72kg ( 60% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.
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My two video podcast essays for January will average more than 37 YouTube views, by the end of February ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2022-12-30; known in 25 days.
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Kanye West alive ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-29; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 21 days ago.
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PE; shock ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by reblocke on 2022-12-26; known on 2022-12-26; judged wrong by reblocke on 2022-12-26.
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Ben and Adam will win the race to visit the most US states. ( 87% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-12-21; known on 2023-01-04; judged right by danielfilan 21 days ago.
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Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.
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Will I have significantly less back pain in one year. ( 20% confidence )
Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.
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Will I pass all my exams (Micro, Macro, Maths, Statistics, Business) for this semester (1st semester of my bachelor). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-04-19.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged unknown by csabiu on 2022-12-19.
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Pepsico rolls out 100 Tesla semi by 2023 https://archive.vn/wip/CR0qy ( 5% confidence )
Created by objclone on 2022-12-16; known on 2023-12-31.
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Are large language models the final paradigm before AGI? (not sure about the best way to operationalize this question yet.) ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2070-01-01.
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By 2050, will there be an extension to the way we understand reality similar to the one from probability to quantum mechanics? ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2050-01-01.
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Will I belief that the bridge transform is illuminating something important about epistemology by 2026? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Will it turn out by 2026 that grokking is essentially the same thing as phase shifts in thermodynamics/statistical mechanics? ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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SBF extradited from the Bahamas to the US ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-14; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-23.
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A second lab achieves ignition in a fusion experiment ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Google Search will be less popular than a product from OpenAI by 2026 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elecnix on 2022-12-10; known on 2026-01-01.
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I will meet Miss Beige in person again. ( 25% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav 12 days ago.
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I will meet Miss Jyväskylä in person again. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will meet Miss Snow White in person again. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will meet Miss Teeth in person again. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav 12 days ago.
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Brazilian tax reform will pass Congress before our 2024 midterm election days. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-02; known on 2024-10-06.
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I will test negative for covid the morning of 12/2 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dmz on 2022-12-01; known on 2022-12-02; judged right by dmz on 2022-12-02.
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'Avatar: The Way of Water' will domestically gross more than $650 million by January 31, 2023 (inclusive) ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by oakbound on 2022-12-01; known on 2023-01-02; judged wrong by oakbound on 2023-01-01.
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'Avatar: The Way of Water' will domestically gross more than $175 million on its opening weekend (Dec 16-18) ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-12-01; known on 2022-12-19; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-12-19.
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Marco Rubio will be Donald Trump's VP pick ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will test negative for covid around noon on 12/1 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dmz on 2022-11-30; known on 2022-12-01; judged wrong by dmz on 2022-12-01.
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Cameron will be 81.6kg 1 month from when he purchased his walking pad ( 50% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2022-11-30; known on 2022-12-30.
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I will test negative for covid the morning of 11/30 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dmz on 2022-11-29; known on 2022-11-30; judged wrong by dmz on 2022-11-30.
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I'm about to test negative for covid ( 25% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2022-11-29; known on 2022-11-29; judged wrong by dmz on 2022-11-29.
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PRC ends Zero-Covid Policy ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-07.
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I will run semi-supervised Cityscapes-Vistas experiments by 2022-12-2, 20:30. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Ivan on 2022-11-26; known on 2022-12-02; judged wrong by Ivan on 2022-12-04.
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I will be at the airport by 5:17 am. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-26; known on 2022-11-26; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-11-26.
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CME Group will claim the video of their CEO stating that he bribed a CFTC regulator was digitally manipulated. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-07.
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I will catch up with my flashcard debt duplicate of: https://manifold.markets/EmrikGarden/will-i-have-caught-up-with-my-flash ( 15% confidence )
Created by emrik on 2022-11-25; known in 25 days.
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I will run Fishyscapes evaluation by 2022-11-24, 21:00 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Ivan on 2022-11-23; known on 2022-11-24; judged wrong by Ivan on 2022-11-24.
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I will meet Miss Sheep in person again. ( 10% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav 12 days ago.
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I will meet Miss Checkers in person again. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by niplav 12 days ago.
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I will meet Miss Propaganda in person again. ( 5% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by niplav 12 days ago.
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I will meet Miss Piano in person again. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-12-04.
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I will meet Miss Pink Panther in person again. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by niplav 12 days ago.
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Miss Piano answers my ping text. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-22.
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In mid-2023, Brazil will have had mild GDP growth, but Bolsonarist bubbles will claim that these results are fake and Brazil is in a recession ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-09-01.
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Will mastodonusercount@bitcoinhackers.org report more than 50 million accounts? ( 20% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2024-01-01.
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Miss Sheep will reply to my feeler text ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-21.
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Miss Checkers will reply to my feeler text ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-21.
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Miss Pink Panther will reply to my feeler text ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-21.
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Miss Propaganda will reply to my feeler text ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav 12 days ago.
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Twitter will suffer a large scale (global or multi-continent) outage lasting more than 1 hour on or before March 31, 2023 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-11-20; known on 2023-04-01; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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I have covid ( 60% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2022-11-20; known on 2022-12-01; judged right by dmz on 2022-11-26.
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Geraldo Alckmin's (Brazilian vice-president-elect) role in 2023 will be regarded as one of Lula's right arms in governance ( 70% confidence )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-19; known on 2024-01-01.
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Conditioned on me visiting family for Thanksgiving, we will talk about the FTX scandal. ( 65% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-19; known on 2022-11-25; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2022-11-25.
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I will have at least 50 followers on Mastodon by December 31. ( 25% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2022-12-31.
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Twitter will be online on the 15th of December 2022. On that date, I will be able to post a tweet and other people will be able to see it. ( 89% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-12-15.
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Binance goes bankrupt ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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Donald Trump runs as an Independent in the 2024 Presidential election ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-08-16.
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Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.
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Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-14; known on 2024-09-01.
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Elizabeth Holmes to be sentenced to 4 to 12 years in prison. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-13; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-19.
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Ilan Goldfajn will be elected president of the Interamerican Bank of Development (BID in Portuguese). ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-12; known on 2022-11-21; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-11-21.
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I will post a tweet between Dec 1 2023 and Dec 7 2023 (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-12; known on 2023-12-07.
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Sam Bankman-Fried will be arrested before January 1, 2024, on charges related to the (as of 2022-11-10) liquidity crunch at FTX. ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pmberg on 2022-11-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-13.
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Arthur Lira (PL) will be reelected as the President of Brazil's Lower Chamber ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-10; known 1 day ago.
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Adept AI's demo is way better than it can actually do (https://twitter.com/AdeptAILabs/status/1590396065072951296) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by cmessinger on 2022-11-10; known on 2023-07-02.
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The federal reserve will continue raising interest rates through June 2023. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ebloch on 2022-11-09; known on 2023-07-01.
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Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-11-08.
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Lula will not name a liberal Treasure secretary ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-13.
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I will go to Oxford before the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence )
Created by mgerov on 2022-11-06; known on 2023-01-01.
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Republicans have what is widely regarded as a blowout election in their favor at the midterms, including taking both the House and Senate. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-02; known on 2022-11-10; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-10.
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By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2025, Kanye West makes another album ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.