EA Grants makes the majority of their grant decisions and amounts publicly accessible by October 19, 2019 (UTC) ( 80% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford 1 day ago; known on 2019-10-19.

EA Grants makes the majority of their applications public knowledge by the end of October 19, 2019 (UTC). ( 50% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford 1 day ago; known on 2019-10-19.

Personal, Productivity – I spend a third hour cleaning or finish my cleaning backlog before 2018-10-19 23:00 UTC ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known about 10 hours ago.

Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sdr 1 day ago; known on 2019-05-01.

Personal – I have mended at least one item of clothing via sewing before 2018-12-01. ( 25% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 3 days ago; known on 2018-12-01.

Personal – I have some kind of cloud service invoking ML Engine to generate a list of its own probability assignments by end of November 2018. ( 87% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 3 days ago; known on 2018-12-01.

Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by raehik 7 days ago; known on 2023-10-13.

Andrew Cuomo will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known in 21 days.

Larry Sharpe will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known in 21 days.

Larry Sharpe will win >10% of the vote in the upcoming NY gubernatorial election. ( 33% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known in 21 days.

1000+ Twitter followers ( 4% confidence )

Created by arun 9 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.

Still at my current employer a year from now. ( 70% confidence )

Created by notsonewuser 9 days ago; known on 2019-10-10.

Personal – I have completed at least one Anki card on five of the seven days prior to 2018-12-01 ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 12 days ago; known on 2018-12-01.

Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon 14 days ago; known on 2019-04-06.

There won't be any team from Russia in Champions League play-offs in 2018 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Stommelen 16 days ago; known on 2018-12-13.

LeVeon Bell won't be traded ( 75% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner 18 days ago; known in 10 days.

George Martin won't finish “A Song of Ice and Fire” series until 2030 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Stommelen 19 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

Politics, US – Before 2019, the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General names a suspected author of the New York Times “Resistance” op-ed. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 21 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.

Politics, US – Brian Kemp is elected governor of Georgia in the 2018 election, ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 21 days ago; known in 18 days.

Politics, US – In Madison v. Alabama, the Supreme Court rules that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 21 days ago; known on 2019-08-01.

Personal – I am either continuing with or have completed my Neuroscience course on Coursera as of 2018-12-01. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 21 days ago; known on 2018-12-01.

Lewis Hamilton will become 2018 Formula 1 World Champion ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Stommelen 22 days ago; known on 2018-11-25.

Я завершу первой главу ВКР до 1 ноября ( 70% confidence )

Created by Stommelen 22 days ago; known in 12 days.

The control problem will be solved until AI can recursively self-improve. ( 30% confidence )

Created by pranomostro 25 days ago; known on 2101-01-01.

AI goes FOOM until 2100. ( 85% confidence )

Created by pranomostro 25 days ago; known on 2101-01-01.

At the end of 2100, at least 100 mio. people will be alive. ( 77% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by pranomostro 25 days ago; known on 2101-01-01.

Humanity will establish a permanent base on mars until 2100. ( 75% confidence )

Created by pranomostro 25 days ago; known on 2101-01-01.

Humanity will establish a permanent basis on the moon until 2100. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro 25 days ago; known on 2101-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2073 and 2085. ( 40% confidence )

Created by pranomostro 25 days ago; known on 2086-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2052 and 2062. ( 55% confidence )

Created by pranomostro 25 days ago; known on 2063-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2042 and 2052 ( 62% confidence )

Created by pranomostro 25 days ago; known on 2053-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2075 and 2085. ( 40% confidence )

Created by pranomostro 25 days ago; known on 2086-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2055 and 2063. ( 50% confidence )

Created by pranomostro 25 days ago; known on 2064-01-01.