The High Court of Australia will grant special leave to appeal from the decision in Pell v The Queen 2019 VSCA 186 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sjy 1 day ago; known on 2020-06-30.

Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025 ( 5% confidence )

Created by eternaltyro 2 days ago; known on 2025-08-16.

The Amazon rainforest fire triggers an irreversible catastrophic ecological collapse ( 20% confidence )

Created by eternaltyro 2 days ago; known on 2024-08-16.

There'll be a global average “dip” in the rate of population increase directly attributable to people voluntarily forgoing having kids due to climate change fears ( 25% confidence )

Created by eternaltyro 2 days ago; known on 2020-08-16.

Climate change news related psychological disorders (including stress and anxiety induced by news) spawns a new branch of psychiatry ( 35% confidence )

Created by eternaltyro 2 days ago; known on 2020-08-16.

The Amazon Rainforest fire makes at least two tribal languages extinct ( 35% confidence )

Created by eternaltyro 2 days ago; known on 2020-08-16.

Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sjy 7 days ago; known on 2022-09-01.

Saudi Aramco's IPO valuation to be less than $2 trillion, conditional on IPO before 2020 EOY ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

There will be more than 5 Metaculus domains on 14 Jan 2020 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by wolfish_wrath 11 days ago; known on 2020-01-14.

Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by bobpage 13 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will reduce power consumption by at least 20% from the prior generation ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lettergram 13 days ago; known on 2020-07-01.

AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will be released Q2 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lettergram 13 days ago; known on 2020-06-01.

The Collatz Conjecture will not be proven/disproven this year ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath 22 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[Politics] Martial law to be declared in at least part of Hong Kong by October 2019 EOM ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-11-01.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-02-01.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-02-01.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-02-01.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-02-01.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-02-01.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-02-01.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-03-01.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-03-01.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-03-01.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-03-01.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-03-01.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-03-01.

[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

Collision between Chinese and US naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 24 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.

Collision between Chinese and Taiwanese naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 24 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.

[Fighting] Claressa Shields to have a professional MMA bout by 2020-07-31 ( 46% confidence )

Created by Cato 24 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 20 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 19 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 18 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 17 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 16 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 15 ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 14 ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 26 days ago; known in 20 days.