PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	10413	14285	14769	15493	28198	7508	90666

COVID, UK – The UK has a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known on 2021-06-02.

COVID, UK – At least 17 million people have been vaccinated (at least one dose) by the 15th of February 2021. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known in 21 days.

The U.S. will go to war (>20,000 new troop deployment) before the end of Biden/Harris' first term. ( 57% confidence )

Created by JohnGreer 3 days ago; known on 2025-01-20.

CA Gov Gavin Newsom will have a recall effort reach the signature threshold needed for certification before March 31, 2022 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2021-04-15.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-05-19 ( 95% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2021-08-01.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-04-10 ( 75% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2021-08-01.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 50% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2021-08-01.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 25% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2021-08-01.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-03 ( 5% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2021-08-01.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-04-25 ( 95% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2021-04-25.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 75% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2021-04-25.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 50% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2021-04-25.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-04 ( 25% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2021-04-25.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-02-12 ( 5% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2021-04-25.

An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression in the US, UK, or an EU country by 2040 ( 10% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2040-01-01.

An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression by 2040 ( 85% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2040-01-01.

If all EA community building Slack Workspaces are replaced with Mattermost instances, user participation in those spaces will drop by more than 5% ( 60% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.

Internal communications of an EA organisation be part of a data leak by 2040 ( 80% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2040-01-01.

Trump will start a TV show before 2025. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath 5 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.

19.12.1982 Solitärer fibröser Tumor myxoides Stroma/Hämangioperizytom Schwannom ( 60% confidence )

Created by prosti 5 days ago; known in 1 day.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2031 ( 95% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 6 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2024 ( 75% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 6 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2023 ( 50% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 6 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2022 ( 25% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 6 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.

EA Global London will be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again. ( 40% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 6 days ago; known on 2021-11-02.

There will be a Second US civil war before 2031 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath 6 days ago; known on 2031-01-02.

No Trump family indictments in 2021 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath 6 days ago; known on 2022-01-30.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.973 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )