Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 10446 | 14345 | 14846 | 15568 | 28414 | 7531 | 91150 |
Recent Predictions
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A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy about 10 hours ago; known on 2021-06-01.
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joe biden dies in presidency ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig 4 days ago; known on 2025-02-26.
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humans on mars before 2030 ( 40% confidence )
Created by htaussig 4 days ago; known on 2030-02-26.
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2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon SwSh DLC ( 33% confidence )
Created by gallerdude 4 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by gallerdude 4 days ago.
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2/26 Pokémon Presents – Sinnoh Remakes ( 50% confidence )
Created by gallerdude 4 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by gallerdude 4 days ago.
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2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon Let's Go Johto ( 25% confidence )
Created by gallerdude 4 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by gallerdude 4 days ago.
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2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon Snap Release Date ( 50% confidence )
Created by gallerdude 4 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by gallerdude 4 days ago.
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A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2070. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niconiconi 4 days ago; known on 2071-01-01.
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A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2050. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by niconiconi 4 days ago; known on 2051-01-01.
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A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WON'T be built before 2030. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niconiconi 4 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.
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New Glenn to fly in 2022. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ 5 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.
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I will be in California on the 8th of March. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EliTyre 5 days ago; known in 7 days.
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I publish >=1 paper on (A | Bio)rXiv in 2021. ( 60% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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Scott Alexander starts a Substack in 2021. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon 7 days ago.
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Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] >200 million. ( 1% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known in 29 days.
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Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known in 29 days.
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Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known in 29 days.
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Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known in 29 days.
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[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] <40 million. ( 4% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known in 29 days.
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Fewer than 40 million total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be estimated as of March 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 4% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known in 29 days.
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Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.
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1 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of February 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged right by krazemon 7 days ago.
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Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.
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Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2021-04-30.
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Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed on or after August 1st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 15% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2021-08-01.
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Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2021-07-31.
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Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2021-05-31.
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Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known in 29 days.
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China attacks Taiwan in 2021. ( 5% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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Number of people in the world living in extreme global poverty is below 743,336,050 (as measured by https://worldpoverty.io/map) on January 1st, 2022. ( 95% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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Conditional on winning the primary, Andrew Yang wins the NYC mayoral election. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2021-11-02.
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Conditional on his participation, Andrew Yang wins the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 30% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2021-06-22.
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Andrew Yang participates (competes) in the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 60% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2021-06-22.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $5k ( 10% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $2k ( 25% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $1k ( 55% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $500 ( 60% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $200 ( 95% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 2% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $75k ( 5% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $20k ( 70% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $10k. ( 80% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-14.
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Top price performance (in G3D Mark / $) of GPU ≥60 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark—of-gpu/). ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-14.
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First Tesla Cybertruck delivered to customer in 2021. ( 45% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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SpaceX starship has a successful test launch in which it lands without major issues (defined as causing enough damage to the ship that it can’t be reused) in 2021. ( 60% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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Another company besides Waymo's self-driving car service open to the public (anywhere) in 2021. ( 10% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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Waymo self-driving car service open to the public in a city outside of Arizona in 2021. ( 20% confidence )
Created by krazemon 7 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.