Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 51% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 10567 | 14555 | 15082 | 15826 | 28982 | 7569 | 92581 |
Recent Predictions
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Matt Gaetz (Matthew Louis Gaetz II) (born 7 May 1982) gets arrested within five (5) years ( 99% confidence )
Created by two2thehead about 2 hours ago; known on 2026-06-18.
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Personal, Productivity – I make at least five soft skill flashcards by deadline. ( 93% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known about 14 hours ago.
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NZ win the WTC final ( 55% confidence )
Created by Deepak 3 days ago; known in 5 days.
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I will have made 70 new Anki cards by next Tuesday ( 10% confidence )
Created by Morpheus 3 days ago; known in 4 days.
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P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by scatterspace 4 days ago; known on 2050-12-31.
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No in-person shopping week for Harvard College (2021-2022) ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian 6 days ago; known on 2021-08-25.
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COVID, UK – national reopening will happen on 21 June but there will be significant local restrictions ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo 8 days ago; known on 2022-06-22.
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COVID, UK – Full reopening is done as planned (with no local restrictions) on 21 June ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo 8 days ago; known on 2022-06-22.
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Personal – The shirts I have ordered fit sufficiently well that I don't purchase others to replace them. ( 67% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 19 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 16 days ago.
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COVID, UK – Seven day moving average of confirmed cases exceeds 10,000 again by end of June. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 19 days ago; known in 12 days.
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Politics, Israel – Lapid forms coalition government by deadline. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 19 days ago; known 16 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 16 days ago.
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Tech – In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir 19 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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Personal – I have successfully replaced my suit by deadline. ( 82% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 19 days ago; known in 18 days; judged right by jbeshir 5 days ago.
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Politics, US – Andrew Cuomo Still NY Governor through 2021-06-30 ( 94% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 19 days ago; known in 12 days.
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I have strep - history of sore throat, current pollen - 5-15% of adult throat inflammation is bacterial - no fever ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technillogue 21 days ago; known 23 days ago; judged right by technillogue 21 days ago.
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At the end of the year, I will consider the UFO talk to have been no significant evidence for the existence of aliens ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sty.silver 26 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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A paper on total difference labeling of infinite graphs will be published with me as a coauthor by May 15, 2022 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-18; known on 2022-05-15.
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In the wake of more internet censorship, an auction site that runs on tokens you can only buy with cryptocurrency will open, and become popular enough that even I learn about it. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2021-05-17; known on 2026-05-15.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are six or more vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known in 12 days.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are four vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known in 12 days.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are still only three vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known in 12 days.
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US – Military UAP report per IAA due 1st of June states aliens OR states “secretive organisations” are an unlikely explanation for unidentified aerial phenomena. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known 17 days ago.
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COVID, US – US Federal government allocates enough vaccine doses to cover every US adult, OR announces it has received enough and credible reporting supports this, by deadline. ( 16% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 5 days ago.
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[I will go to Italy] Before December 31 ( 80% confidence )
Created by vlad.proex on 2021-05-15; known on 2022-01-01.
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[I will go to Italy] Before August 31 ( 40% confidence )
Created by vlad.proex on 2021-05-15; known on 2022-01-01.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Naqrefba'f pynvz abg gb xabj Arhsryq'f erfrnepu vf n yvr ( 90% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known 27 days ago; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Gur ebznapr fhocybg vf n erq ureevat ( 60% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known 27 days ago; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Arhsryq srnef Oenqr orpnhfr bs Naqrefba'f yvrf ( 80% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known 27 days ago; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Naqrefba jnagrq gb fgrny perqvg sbe Arhsryq'f erfhygf ( 70% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known 27 days ago; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death md5(murderer's surname) = b32b1b822dd59451b17b08f97fdfe81e ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known 27 days ago; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 97% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01.
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We will discover alien biosignatures via advanced telescopes investigating alien atmospheres ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-05-14; known on 2031-05-15.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for chapter 11 of CtCI by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-13; known on 2021-05-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-16.
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Jonathan Rosin will be sentenced to at least a year in jail by January 1, 2023 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-11; known on 2023-01-01.
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We will walk out of doctor’s appointment after 3 pm ( 60% confidence )
Created by Yitz on 2021-05-11; known on 2021-05-11; judged right by Yitz on 2021-05-12.
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Personal, Productivity – I do practice question for Chapter 9 of CtCI by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-11; known on 2021-05-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-11.
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There will NOT be any hyperinflation (>10% CBI compared to the previous year) in the USA in 2021 ( 95% confidence )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-05-10; known on 2022-01-01.
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SN 15 to fly again by June 15. ( 58% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-09; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 3 days ago.
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Housing crash (average price down at least 30%) in Ontario, Canada by the end of the year. ( 20% confidence )
Created by ianc on 2021-05-09; known on 2022-01-02.
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Personal, Productivity – I read, make Anki cards for (if appropriate), and do a practice question session for C6 of Cracking the Coding Interview. ( 82% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-07.
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behnke 13.02.1965 GCT ( 80% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2021-05-05; known 17 days ago.
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Facebook's Oversight Board will rule to reinstate Donald Trump's account ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for C5 of my book by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-04; known on 2021-05-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-05.
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Portugal's Covid Vaccination – I (a healthy 27 year old who didn't yet get the 1st dose) will get my 2nd dose during 2022 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LouisLC on 2021-05-02; known on 2022-04-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I read chapters 4 and 5 and make Anki cards as appropriate before deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-02; known on 2021-05-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.
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Armin Laschet becomes the next chancellor of Germany after Angela Merkel ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01.
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Germany's Green party gets the most seats in Bundestag 2021 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for (if necessary) chapter 3 of my book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-05-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.
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SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-30; known on 2027-01-01.