PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11070	15379	15869	16609	30109	7850	96886

Recent Predictions

1901019297 NGUYỄN VĂN THÁI u dưới niêm mạc thực quản: GIST/ leiomyoma? ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 about 21 hours ago; known in 20 days.
2205027885 NGUYỄN PHƯƠNG MAI Khối đặc giảm âm, ngấm thuốc kém nhu mô lách/ U máu gan => có phải u máu lách không điển hình không? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 about 21 hours ago; known in 13 days.
I will have taken the Pledge ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by johnmichaelbridge 2 days ago; known on 2023-01-16.
I will self-identify as vegan ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by johnmichaelbridge 2 days ago; known on 2023-01-16.
A week goes by without any more attempted mass shootings/attacks in the US ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 2 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.
Clouduknguyen_95 realizes he can make predictions in private mode (“visible to creator”), and decides to stop leaking people's medical information ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 2 days ago; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum about 11 hours ago.
2205022498 LA THỊ NHÂM Hình ảnh khối tổ chức ngấm thuốc khoang cảnh bên phải – theo dõi Schwannoma dây X (chưa loại trừ u cuộn cảnh). Tổn thương có vôi hóa, không điển hình cho schwannoma ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 2 days ago; known in 19 days.
2205026284 NGUYỄN THỊ THẢO Hình ảnh khối tổ chức ngấm thuốc khoang cảnh bên phải – theo dõi Schwannoma dây X (chưa loại trừ u cuộn cảnh). ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 2 days ago; known in 12 days.
2205012150 TÔ THU HÀ Lymphocytic hypophysitis hay u tuyến yên???? ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 3 days ago; known in 18 days.
NGUYỄN NGỌC HẢI 2205026787 Rách thân – sừng sau sụn chêm trong độ III ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 3 days ago; known in 11 days.
Portuguese government still provides free Covid vaccines by 1st Nov 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by LouisLC 5 days ago; known on 2022-11-01.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon will not become premier ministre of France in 2022. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tot 6 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.
2205009708 DƯƠNG THỊ HÒA tổn thương chứa máu bán cấp phần phụ bên phải – theo dõi nang lạc nội mạc tử cung. Buồng trứng đa nang hai bên. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 7 days ago; known in 7 days.
2205015684 NGUYỄN DUY SƯƠNG Hình ảnh khối phần nông tuyến mang tai phải – ít ngấm thuốc, theo dõi u Warthin nhưng chưa loại trừ carcinoma, xin phối hợp thêm với chọc tế bào chẩn đoán. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 7 days ago; known in 7 days.
2205018514 ĐẶNG NHƯ HIẾU Orbital myositis ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 7 days ago; known in 7 days.
2002000730 LÊ QUANG HƯNG Ganglion cyst khuỷu trái ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 7 days ago; known in 7 days.
2205017788 PHẠM THỊ HẢI Nữ 36 tuổi, tiền sử tiêm giảm đau vào vùng mông 2 năm trước, nay xuất hiện khối cứng, đau vùng mông hai bên MRI: Hình ảnh các ổ tổn thương ngấm thuốc ngoại vi theo dõi các ổ hoại tử mỡ ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 7 days ago; known in 7 days.
2204044707 PHAN THỊ TỚI Hình ảnh theo dõi lạcnội mạc trong cơ tử cung lan tỏa. Nhân xơ tử cung. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 7 days ago; known in 7 days.
large credit card companies, paypal, square etc. refuse to accept payments from businesses that sell trans care items: for example, binders, packers, queer comics, flags, art. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2028-05-08.
at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2024-05-08.
laws against unmarried people living together on the local level will spread ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2028-05-08.
a case will come before the supreme court regarding anti-blasphemy or obscenity laws, and the court will take the case. ( 57% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2028-05-08.
lawrence v texas won't be overturned in the next 6 years, but will be substantially weakened by alterations to the scope of what counts as public sex, the expectation of privacy, or by what counts as obscenity. ( 39% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2028-05-08.
serious challenge to obergefell goes before the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 59% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2028-05-08.
it becomes significantly more difficult for queer couples to get surrogates or adopt in the united states within 6 years. ( 63% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2028-05-08.
a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2028-05-08.
assuming roe v wade is overturned, certain kinds of hormonal contraception will be classified as abortificants and banned in some states. ( 97% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2028-05-08.
lawsuits aimed at bankrupting LGBT organizations. this is currently happening in the UK, and i anticipate it will be exported to the US as a strategy, in the next 3 years. ( 78% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2025-05-08.
purchase of at least one major news network or org (i don't mean twitter) by a conservative group or individual. (if i were going to guess which in particular, i'd guess abc) with the intent to turn it into a conservative media outlet ( 31% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2028-05-08.
gender studies, women's studies, queer studies, ethnic studies defunded from multiple universities, in particular state universities. ( 67% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2028-05-08.
lgbt art (literature, art, tv, news, etc.): access restricted based on “fears of recruitment of children.” we're already seeing this with book bans in libraries and schools, but i anticipate more of it on a broader scale. ( 92% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2026-05-08.
increasingly strict regulations on hrt, surgery, for adults. in particular, rules that impact clinics' ability to provide drugs and surgeries in the next 4 years. ( 76% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2026-05-08.
legislation to ban trans healthcare (hrt, surgery) in adults will be upheld by the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 1% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2027-05-08.
legislation to ban trans healthcare (hrt, surgery, or social transition) in children will be upheld by the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 59% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2027-05-08.
legislation will be introduced to ban trans-affirming care for trans adults in the next 2 years . ( 89% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2024-05-08.
no strict reversal of Bostock vs Clayton County (that discrimination against trans people is protected against under the civil rights act), but i anticipate it will be weakened via “religious liberty” suits in the next 6 years. ( 62% confidence )

Created by sobet 11 days ago; known on 2027-05-08.
CL will not win the next N23 trivia quiz ;-) ( 89% confidence )

Created by TheOrme 14 days ago; known on 2022-12-31.
Madison Cawthorn reelected ( 60% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 14 days ago; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 1 day ago.
A bill legalizing abortion in the United States at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 15 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.
Russian troops invade Moldova ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 17 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.
Josh Hawley runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 63% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 17 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
Tom Cotton runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 18 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
I will lose my virginity before I turn 25 ( 10% confidence )

Created by lazydope 21 days ago; known on 2024-03-01.
Ron DeSantis runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 62% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 24 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
No rockets in Ukraine for 2+ consecutive months by New Year ( 25% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by Mckiev 27 days ago; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 20 days ago.
I've spent 200 hours on one particular project ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mckiev 27 days ago; known on 2022-10-22.
I picked a major professional goal ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mckiev 27 days ago; known on 2022-12-31.
I will get to 12% bodyfat by the end of 2022 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mckiev 27 days ago; known on 2022-12-31.
Valve will release True Sight for The International 10 on or before June 30, 2022 ( 80% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 28 days ago; known on 2022-07-01.
Airplane mask mandate in the US to be legally in force for at least one day between now and May 15th. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ 30 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 3 days ago.
Someone other than me makes a prediction in the next week ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 30 days ago; known 23 days ago; judged right by JoshuaZ 30 days ago.
Tapetum-Lucidum does not make any more metapredictions, after this one, until 2023 ( 27% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-17; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 30 days ago.
kriscooper000 returns by 2023 and modifies their prediction about the moon exploding ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-17; known on 2023-01-01.
Elon Musk completes acquisition of Twitter ( 60% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-14; known on 2023-01-01.
The moon will explode within a billion years ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kriscooper000 on 2022-04-12; known on 2022-04-12; judged wrong by God 20 days ago.
Quelle est la probabilité d'avoir Le Pen devançant Macron au premier tour? ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by mathieu on 2022-04-10; known on 2022-04-10; judged wrong by mathieu on 2022-04-10.
Quelle est la probabilité d'avoir un second tour Macron Le Pen? ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by mathieu on 2022-04-10; known on 2022-04-10; judged right by mathieu on 2022-04-10.
A magical/mystic/ancient/god character will make an appearance. (Dr. Strange/Blade/Morbius/Eternals/Loki/etc.) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known 15 days ago; judged right by jonathyn on 2022-04-10.
A Daredevil-verse character will make a cameo ( 4% confidence )

Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by gebeverungen 13 days ago.
She-hulk will make a cameo ( 2% confidence )

Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by gebeverungen 13 days ago.
Blade will make a cameo ( 2% confidence )

Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by gebeverungen 13 days ago.
A new character from an upcoming show/movie will make a cameo ( 30% confidence )

Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by gebeverungen 13 days ago.
A previously seen character will make a cameo ( 60% confidence )

Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by gebeverungen 13 days ago.
A supporting character from a Marvel movie will make a cameo. ( 50% confidence )

Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by gebeverungen 13 days ago.
A MAIN character from a Marvel movie will make a cameo. ( 10% confidence )

Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by gebeverungen 13 days ago.
A Marvel character from another TV series will make a cameo. ( 65% confidence )

Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by gebeverungen 13 days ago.
A non-Moon Knight Marvel character will make a cameo ( 100% confidence )

Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by gebeverungen 13 days ago.
A bill legalizing marijuana in the US at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01.
Sometime within calendar year 2022, Ooga leaves Ashley's embrace for long enough to log onto predictionbook and judge their only prediction. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by God 22 days ago.
Ooga and Ashley break up ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01.
2 hours of One Minute Thought — schedule, podcast apps etc (repurpose Radio Browser Feed) ( 80% confidence )

Created by mbu on 2022-04-06; known on 2022-04-07; judged right by mbu on 2022-04-07.
Macron will be elected president in 2022 ( 79% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by mathieu on 2022-04-06; known 24 days ago; judged right by Baeboo 24 days ago.
Ashley and I will make it to the movies. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ooga on 2022-04-03; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by God 22 days ago.
There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined) ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31.
Joe Rogan will not lose his Spotify podcast (e.g., Spotify will not ask him or force him to step away) in 2022. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31.
The 7-day moving average of Covid deaths (as tracked by the New York Times) will be less than 1000 people on April 4, 2022. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-04-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-10.
In 2022, The New York Times will follow up it's article on free speech in the U.S. by suggesting that mainstream news organizations should hire more conservative writers (affirmative action for conservatives). ( 80% confidence )

Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31.
Alaska bill SB140, which “would ban trans girls and women from participating in sports in accordance with their gender identity” will pass in 2022. ( 75% confidence )

Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31.
Russian government blocks access to Wikipedia ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-31; known on 2023-01-01.
The Biden administration officially claims that Russia has attempted to interfere in the 2024 US presidential election ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-30; known on 2025-01-31.
I leave the country before mosh starts. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-29; known on 2022-06-28.
No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid on January 1, 2023. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-28; known on 2023-01-01.
Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-11-09.
I will have put online an experiment by next weekend. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-04-01; judged wrong by Ygg on 2022-04-03.
GDP growth will not resume to the pre-covid trajectory. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-12-31.
Odessa will not be invaded by Russia by April 3rd ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-04-03; judged right by Ygg on 2022-04-03.
Shoigu remains as Russian Minister of Defense until the end of Putin's current term. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-05-01.
Los Angeles indoor mask mandate is in effect any time between now and Jan 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.
we will sit at the same table in the bryn mawr room. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-22; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by Wineormilk on 2022-03-29.
Any movie will win 6 or more Oscars at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony. ( 18% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-03-21; known on 2022-03-28; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-03-28.
Biden to announce a No Fly Zone while in Europe. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-21; known on 2024-04-01; judged wrong by musininpursuit on 2022-04-03.
DATE > SEX: I will have sex with Karla ( 55% confidence )

Created by pancakemouse on 2022-03-20; known on 2022-03-21; judged right by pancakemouse on 2022-03-21.
Ukraine to surrender to Russia by May 1st. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-18; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 18 days ago.
I can revise predictions on this site ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Oscar142857 on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-03-19; judged right by Oscar142857 on 2022-03-18.
'Morbius' will gross $50 million or more on opening weekend in the USA ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by oakbound on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-04-08; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-04-04.
Russian stock market is open on Monday, March 28 2022 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-03-29; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-29.
Russian stock market is open on Monday, March 21 2022 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-03-22; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-21.
An earthquake measuring 8.0 or above will occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022 ( 21% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by oakbound on 2022-03-17; known in 14 days.
China attempts a full scale invasion of Taiwan in 2022. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by atzeje on 2022-03-16; known on 2023-01-01.
I will cross the 15,000 copies-sold mark for Mind Management, Not Time Management by the end of May 2022 ( 70% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2022-03-15; known in 13 days; judged right by kadavy 14 days ago.