[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2023 (continuous between 2020 and 2023; caveat: barring major injury) ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by shinyhare about 5 hours ago; known on 2023-01-19.

Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by shinyhare about 5 hours ago; known on 2025-01-19.

[Personal] My average fall asleep hour for 2020 will be 2:00 am or earlier ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by shinyhare about 6 hours ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[Personal] I will get a cat (more likely a pair of buddies) before 2025. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by shinyhare about 6 hours ago; known on 2025-01-19.

California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020 ( 18% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford about 6 hours ago; known on 2021-01-01.

Conditional on Trump’s impeachment trial having at least one witness give testimony, Hunter Biden will give testimony ( 60% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford about 6 hours ago; known on 2021-01-01.

The Senate trial for Trump’s impeachment will have at least one witness give testimony (public or private) in 2020 ( 57% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford about 6 hours ago; known on 2021-01-01.

Tech – Charter delays shutdown of its home security service beyond 2020-02-05. ( 20% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known in 18 days.

Politics, UK – Big Ben rings on the 31st of January or 1st of February, London Time. ( 30% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known in 14 days.

Business, UK – Ryanair sues the UK government in relation to agreements between the UK government and Flybe before deadline. ( 20% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known on 2020-02-18.

Tech – SpaceX successfully completes emergency crew rescue test before deadline. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known in 1 day.

Meta-prediction: I win my predictions bet with David Manheim https://twitter.com/peterhurford/status/1217795302821896193 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford 1 day ago; known on 2021-01-01.

Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 2 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.

[Personal] I will be underconfident across the past 6 personal predictions ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[Personal] At the end of 2020, Dominion online will still be around, have the same rating system, and my rating will be at least 62 ( 40% confidence )

Created by sty.silver 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[Personal] According to the Waking Up app, I'll have spent at least 2000 minutes meditating in the rest of 2020. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[Personal] I'll finish my LW sequence on Machine Learning with 1 post per week (end of Sunday CET) without ever being late ( 50% confidence )

Created by sty.silver 3 days ago; known on 2021-05-01.

[Personal] My favorite album, movie, and TV show will all be the same at the end of 2020 as they are now. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[Personal] I'll still take Melatonin daily at the end of 2020 (remains true if I forget it <0.05 of the time) ( 95% confidence )

Created by sty.silver 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[Personal] I'll work out at least twice on every day from now on till the end of 2020. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

There will be a 4x GM in Kaggle in 2020 ( 20% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford 3 days ago; known on 2020-07-15.

Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford 3 days ago; known on 2020-07-15.

Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford 3 days ago; known on 2020-07-15.

After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%). ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by peter_hurford 3 days ago; known on 2020-07-15.

Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020 ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

Trump meets with Kim in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

The states (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact have less combined electoral votes at the end of 2020 than they did in 2019 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford 3 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford 4 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.

A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by peter_hurford 4 days ago; known on 2020-11-07.

Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before 2020-01-18 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 7 days ago; known in about 8 hours.

Personal – I weigh in at below 80kg on or before 2020-01-25. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 7 days ago; known in 7 days.

Personal – I manage to find a way to store my bike at ground level, short of the stairwell, before start of 2020-02-01 ( 55% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 7 days ago; known in 13 days.

Personal – My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-25 ( 33% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 7 days ago; known in 7 days.

Politics – Iran strikes, and does not deny striking, a US military base between 2020-01-12 and 2020-02-02 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 7 days ago; known in 15 days.

Waymo offers rides to the airport this year. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by qznc 10 days ago; known on 2020-12-30.

Personal – I weigh in at or below 70kg at least once before start of 2020-07-01. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 11 days ago; known on 2020-07-01.

[Personal] I will read at least 16 books in 2020 Q1 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known on 2020-04-01.

[Personal] I will read at least 32 books in 2020 H1 ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known on 2020-07-01.

[Personal] I will read at least 48 books in 2020 Q1-Q3 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known on 2020-10-01.

[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020 ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

Turing Testable AIs will be publicly available by 2030. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Prickman 12 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

in four months, the consensus among the national security community will be that we (i.e., the US) are not any more meaningfully said to be “at war” with Iran than we are now on 5 Jan 2020. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by peter_hurford 13 days ago; known on 2020-05-06.

The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by krazemon 14 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

Entre os dias 11 de janeiro de 2020 e 26 de dezembro de 2020, publicarei ao menos 35 edições da minha newsletter semanal ( 85% confidence )

Created by chemotaxis101 15 days ago; known on 2020-12-27.