If I ever understand monetary policy properly, I’ll think that Scott Sumner is basically right about NGDP targeting etc ( 80% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath about 13 hours ago; known on 2020-11-17.

Additional predictions appear, written in Spanish. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 6 days ago; known in 13 days.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PP+Vox+Ciudadanos+NA+ ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP sin indepes ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP e indepes ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del PPSOE ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por ninguno de los anteriores (independiente, Teruel Existe…) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por Podemos ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PP ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PSOE ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se repetiran sin formar gobierno ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sortega 6 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.

In ten days, we will still live on the farm. ( 100% confidence )

Created by MatrixJedi 6 days ago; known in 4 days.

President Trump will win the 2020 Election. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by meganwhalen20 6 days ago; known on 2020-11-16.

[Cato: The number of predictions in December 2019 by Cato to be exactly] 13 or more ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-12-20.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-12-20.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-12-20.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-12-20.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-12-20.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-12-20.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-12-20.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-12-20.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-12-20.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 or fewer ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-12-20.

Princesses Victoria of Sweden, Elisabeth of Belgium, Catharina-Amalia of the Netherlands, Ingrid Victoria of Norway and Leonor of Spain all reign at the same time. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga 23 days ago; known on 2101-01-01.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against someone else ( 10% confidence )

Created by Cato 24 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Georges St-Pierre ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 24 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Frankie Edgar ( 7% confidence )

Created by Cato 24 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Tony Ferguson ( 7% confidence )

Created by Cato 24 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Khabib Numagomedov ( 7% confidence )

Created by Cato 24 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Jorge Masvidal ( 11% confidence )

Created by Cato 24 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Nate Diaz ( 14% confidence )

Created by Cato 24 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Justin Gaethje ( 16% confidence )

Created by Cato 24 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Donald Cerrone ( 25% confidence )

Created by Cato 24 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.

Bitcoin's price will be above $10,000 on May 1, 2020 (at midnight). ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by krazemon 28 days ago; known on 2020-05-01.