PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	49%	58%	66%	76%	88%	93%
Sample Size	7905	10868	10936	11020	22210	5784	68723

This prediction will have fewer than five wagers ( 80% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum about 3 hours ago; known in 4 days.

Someone else makes a wager on this prediction ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 2 days ago; known 2 days ago; judged right by Baeboo 2 days ago.

Russia will win 2019 IIHF World Championship ( 70% confidence )

Created by stepan 4 days ago; known in about 4 hours.

OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round). ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2035-01-01.

IRS turns Trump's tax returns over to Congress ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

At least one year of Trump's tax documents are published by the New York Times between now and the 2020 election ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago; known on 2020-11-04.

N is sent back to Russia ( 33% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

EPA finalizes a change to how air pollution deaths are calculated, and this change results in a decrease in the number of estimated deaths ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 5 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon 7 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.

Tesla stock trades below $150 on or before 2 May 2020 ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by separo 7 days ago; known on 2020-05-02.

From 2 May 2019, Apple Inc. (Share price 2 May: $209.15) will yield more than Tesla share price (Share price 2 May: $244.10) in 4 years on a percentage basis. ( 0% confidence )

Created by separo 7 days ago; known on 2023-05-02.

Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued by 2 May 2022 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by separo 7 days ago; known on 2022-05-02.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $6000/mo ( 90% confidence )

Created by enolan 7 days ago; known 4 days ago.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5500/mo ( 75% confidence )

Created by enolan 7 days ago; known 4 days ago.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5000/mo ( 60% confidence )

Created by enolan 7 days ago; known 4 days ago.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $4500/mo ( 20% confidence )

Created by enolan 7 days ago; known 4 days ago.

/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by quanticle 8 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.

Austria's vice chancellor to resign by June 30 ( 90% confidence )

Created by amadeu 8 days ago; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by amadeu 8 days ago.

Apple will discontinue the 13" Macbook Pro model that lacks the touchbar. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by quanticle 8 days ago; known on 2020-05-01.

Austria to call an early election ( 80% confidence )

Created by amadeu 8 days ago; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by amadeu 8 days ago.

The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.

Yeezy x Rick and Morty sneaker collaboration in the next 3 years ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by prophetofprofit 9 days ago; known on 2022-05-17.

The UK to leave the EU without a deal on, or by, 31 October ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon 10 days ago; known on 2019-11-01.

[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 1 MMbpd ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known on 2020-06-14.

[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 2 MMbpd ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known on 2020-06-14.

[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 3 MMbpd ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known on 2020-06-14.

[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 4 MMbpd ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known on 2020-06-14.

[Politics] US government to announce ban on Chinese messaging, ecommerce, or web service such as WeChat, JD, Alibaba, Made-in-China, or Baidu as part of trade dispute—including conditional or postponed bans ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known on 2020-05-15.

[Commodities] Venezuela will produce 0 crude oil in at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020 ( 10% confidence )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known on 2020-06-14.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Other ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )