[Personal] I will set a bench weight PR today. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Cato about 2 hours ago; known in 1 day.

I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-18). ( 10% confidence )

Created by notsonewuser about 3 hours ago; known in 7 days.

Personal – I will still be employed by my current employer at the end of 2019 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Selentelechia 1 day ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal – I will be able to complete one unassisted pull-up at least once in 2019 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Selentelechia 1 day ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal – I will squat 150lbs at least once in 2019 ( 95% confidence )

Created by Selentelechia 1 day ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal – I will bench press 100lbs at least once in 2019 ( 95% confidence )

Created by Selentelechia 1 day ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal – I will deadlift 200lbs at least once in 2019 ( 95% confidence )

Created by Selentelechia 1 day ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal – I will have dated or be dating someone with the intent to make it a long-term relationship (considering marriage) by the end of 2019 ( 95% confidence )

Created by Selentelechia 1 day ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal – My mother will undergo transplant surgery before the end of 2019 ( 63% confidence )

Created by Selentelechia 1 day ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal – My mother will be called about the possibility of donor organs before the end of 2019 ( 71% confidence )

Created by Selentelechia 1 day ago; known on 2020-01-01.

1 or more “CRISPR babies” will be announced before the end of 2019 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Selentelechia 1 day ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Trump will remain president as of January 1st, 2020 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Selentelechia 1 day ago; known on 2020-01-01.

USD cash outperforms SPY during 01/15/19 to 07/15/19 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by objclone 1 day ago; known on 2019-07-15.

[Commodities] US crude oil production in 2019-01 to exceed production in 2018-12 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Cato 2 days ago; known in 27 days.

[Politics] Either Juan Guaidó or Nicolás Maduro to flee Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 3 days ago; known on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato 3 days ago; known on 2019-04-01.

[Economy] S&P 500 to outperform Shanghai Stock Index in 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 H1 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 Q1 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2019-04-01.

[Fighting] Cain Velasquez to beat Francis Ngannou at UFC on ESPN 1 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2019-02-18.

[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Jon Jones to beat Anthony Smith ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2019-03-03.

[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Ben Askren to beat Robbie Lawler ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2019-03-03.

[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Tyron Woodley to beat Kamaru Usman ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2019-03-03.

[Personal] I will travel to a different city this weekend. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Cato 4 days ago; known in 3 days.

NASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on February 28 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 7 days ago; known on 2019-03-01.

North Korea to test a nuclear weapon in 2019 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 7 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[Politics] Eesti 200 to win at least one seat in the Estonian election. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 7 days ago; known on 2019-03-04.

[Fighting] Rose Namajunas to beat Jessica Andrade at UFC 237 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Cato 8 days ago; known on 2019-05-12.

[Fighting] Daniel Cormier to fight Jon Jones in 2019 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Cato 8 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[Fighting] Conor McGregor to fight in a discipline other than MMA in 2019. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 8 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

[Fighting] Diaz and Masvidal to fight at UFC 235. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 8 days ago; known on 2019-03-03.

[Fighting] Bader to beat Emelianenko at Bellator 214. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Cato 8 days ago; known in 9 days.

$AMZN 2019 end of year price >= $2100 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by objclone 9 days ago; known on 2019-12-31.

Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lettergram 9 days ago; known on 2019-06-09.

[Politics] Centre Party (Keskerakond) to remain in government after the 2019 Estonian elections. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 9 days ago; known on 2019-03-04.

Estonia to be elected to the UN Security Council for the 2020-2021 period. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 9 days ago; known on 2019-09-30.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Sophisticated) ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 9 days ago; known in 2 days.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Naïve) ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 9 days ago; known in 2 days.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] One-Sided Laplace ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 9 days ago; known in 2 days.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Sophisticated) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 9 days ago; known in 2 days.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Naïve) ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 9 days ago; known in 2 days.