Shurtleff v. Boston to be decided against Boston with at least six justices in the majority or concurring opinions. ( 74% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ about 3 hours ago; known on 2022-05-01.

I will get into a debate with a close friend about having kids and fighting climate change ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by _galvo_ 1 day ago; known on 2022-02-27.

WHO adds a new COVID-19 “variant of concern” by April 16th, 2022 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno 2 days ago; known on 2022-04-16.

New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 3 days ago; known on 2022-03-05.

I will have a higher average happiness score then last week ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jeedo 3 days ago; known in 4 days.

SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ 4 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 5 days ago; known on 2022-10-02.

At least 120 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by michaelchen 6 days ago; known in 17 days.

All Georgia Tech students will be asked to go home before the end of the semester ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by michaelchen 6 days ago; known on 2022-05-15.

At least 60 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by michaelchen 6 days ago; known in 17 days.

In-person learning at Emory will resume on January 31 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by michaelchen 6 days ago; known in 14 days.

All Georgia Tech classes go remote during the Spring 2022 semester ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by michaelchen 6 days ago; known on 2022-05-15.

No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid by January 1, 2023. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 7 days ago; known on 2023-01-02.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will remain in power as of May 15, 2022. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Luke 8 days ago; known on 2022-05-15.

SpaceX to have a large-scale government bailout by end of 2022. ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 10 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

NFTs will reach mass adoption, but they will also create new layers of financial regulations, and will probably create a financial crash by 2024, where most victims will be from 3rd world countries. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by alfredbaudisch 15 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

NFT games will be one of the hottest topics of 2022, led by The Sandbox, where it's crypto token SAND will reach as high as $30. But eventually, “NFT Games” will fade in by 2023, because everyone will realize how bad and how unsustainable they are. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by alfredbaudisch 15 days ago; known on 2023-03-18.

AMC will hit as low as $8 again and then bounce to a new ATH, higher than $80, during 2022. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by alfredbaudisch 15 days ago; known on 2023-01-04.

SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 15 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

roommate has covid ( 25% confidence )

Created by technillogue 16 days ago; known 2 days ago.

My paper will be accepted this time. ( 80% confidence )

Created by fryolysis 16 days ago; known in 27 days.

Germany abolishes “EEG-Umlage” by 2025 [Lindner promise] ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc 17 days ago; known on 2025-11-01.

I will start studying quantum field theory by end 2022 ( 40% confidence )

Created by waveman 17 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

I will complete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2022. ( 50% confidence )

Created by waveman 17 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

I will weigh an average of 67 kg in the last quarter of 2022. Currently 74.4kg ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by waveman 17 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in ice dance will be:] Sinitsina / Katsalapov ( 5% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known in 26 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in ice dance will be:] Papadakis / Cizeron ( 93% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known in 26 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in pairs will be:] Sui / Han ( 15% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known on 2022-02-19.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in pairs will be:] Tarasova / Morozov ( 5% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known on 2022-02-19.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in pairs will be:] Boikova / Kozlovskii ( 10% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known on 2022-02-19.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in pairs will be:] Mishina / Galliamov ( 70% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known on 2022-02-19.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Loena Hendrickx ( 0% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known in 30 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Kaori Sakamoto ( 0% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known in 30 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Alexandra Trusova ( 2% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known in 30 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Anna Shcherbakova ( 1% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known in 30 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Kamila Valieva ( 97% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known in 30 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in men's singles will be:] Mikhail Kolyada ( 0% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known in 23 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in men's singles will be:] Nathan Chen ( 38% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known in 23 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in men's singles will be:] Yuzuru Hanyu ( 60% confidence )

Created by huera 17 days ago; known in 23 days.

Western Australia allows quarantine-free travel from New South Wales in accordance with the Safe Transition Plan from 5 February 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sjy 20 days ago; known in 18 days.

Australia has 200,000 COVID cases a day by late January ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sjy 20 days ago; known in 13 days.

[This semester I will fail] no course ( 10% confidence )

Created by fryolysis 21 days ago; known in 13 days.

[This semester I will fail] 1 course ( 40% confidence )

Created by fryolysis 21 days ago; known in 13 days.

[This semester I will fail] 2 courses ( 50% confidence )

Created by fryolysis 21 days ago; known in 13 days.

I will complete and publish the scout mindset review by 2022-02-01 ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by blin 21 days ago; known in 13 days.

People will need a 2nd vaccine booster shot within 4 months of receiving their first booster shot. #secondbooster #vaccineboosters ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by julietierney14 21 days ago; known in 10 days.

Blue Monday Festival (https://bluemondayfestival.com/) will be postponed ( 50% confidence )

Created by LouisLC 23 days ago; known in 1 day.

Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jasticE 23 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2051. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 24 days ago; known on 2052-01-01.

At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2041. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 24 days ago; known on 2042-01-01.

Worldwide deaths in 2022 to exceed 90 million people. ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 24 days ago; known on 2023-01-15.

At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2036. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 24 days ago; known on 2037-01-01.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jasticE 26 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 27 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

Within 5 years of initial release of mRNA vaccines, they will be recognized to cause serious side effects lasting >6 months in at least 1 in 5000 cases. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jasticE 27 days ago; known on 2026-01-01.

No US city with a population of over a million people will require covid vaccines for indoor dining on December 22, 2023. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ 28 days ago; known on 2023-12-23.

DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Agustina ( 60% confidence )

Created by pancakemouse on 2021-12-18; known on 2021-12-19.

I will have my first paper accepted for publication by the end of 2024. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jakebeardsley on 2021-12-17; known on 2024-01-01.

My paper will not receive comments by the end of 2021. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jakebeardsley on 2021-12-17; known 18 days ago.

Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16.

A bill to legalise Marijuana is passed in France before the end of June ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-08; known on 2022-06-16.

I will visit Colombia in July ( 80% confidence )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-07-16.

Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known in 14 days.

employer will approve my request to stay remote indefinitely ( 45% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known in 14 days.

My paper will not get a flat rejection ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-04-01.

Conditional on vaccine mandates being enacted, my sister will get vaccinated by end of 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-12-31.

French government announces lockdown for unvaccinated before end of January (for non-essential shops) ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-04; known in 12 days.

The next German president (Bundespräsident) is female (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_German_presidential_election) ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by predictorrr on 2021-11-30; known in 29 days.

It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2022 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by predictorrr on 2021-11-30; known on 2023-01-01.

ĐỖ DUY HOÀ / VDUH^2100101752 u máu gan trái ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-11-23; known on 2021-12-14.

NGUYỄN HÀ CHI / VDUH^2100101709 u sau PM: nang ruột đôi ( 30% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-11-23; known on 2021-12-14.

il primo mese di piattaforma avrò 250 paganti ( 40% confidence )

Created by Raido on 2021-11-23; known on 2022-05-31.

arriverà a 25.000 followers il 17 maggio ( 90% confidence )

Created by Raido on 2021-11-23; known on 2022-05-17.

In a year, I will not regret getting into defi ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by claerity on 2021-11-23; known on 2022-11-23.

TRIỆU TIẾN THẮNG / VDUH^2100098785 ổ tụ máu hố sau, theo dõi do carvenoma. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-11-18; known on 2021-12-09.

HÀ THỊ VÂN / VDUH^2100098224 T2 mismatch sign => diffuse astrocytoma ( 75% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-11-18; known on 2021-12-09.

I will have a job before 250 applications ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by waldo2525 on 2021-11-15; known on 2022-11-15.

The user 8 will not complete his APL project. ( 100% confidence )

Created by bingbingwahoo on 2021-11-12; known on 2030-11-10.

The user 8 will not write a single line of APL code that is relevant to his project. ( 99% confidence )

Created by bingbingwahoo on 2021-11-12; known on 2022-11-10.