“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.

• gwern estimated 3% on 2010-08-21
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dx6?c=1” on 2010-08-21
• Larks estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
• ggreer   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-09-30.
• ggreer   judged this prediction unknown on 2010-09-30.
• ggreer estimated 95% on 2010-09-30
• ggreer estimated 5% on 2010-09-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-01-02
• Grognor estimated 10% on 2011-12-06
• Grognor estimated 5% and said “I mean, no, not 10%” on 2011-12-06
• saturn estimated 0% on 2011-12-11
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-10-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% and said “too many hidden conjunctions” on 2013-11-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-11-16
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2013-11-16
• adbge estimated 1% on 2013-11-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-07
• kuudes said “Testing for a bug” on 2016-12-21
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-12-21.
• kuudes   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-12-21.
• aseyfarth estimated 5% on 2017-01-30
• aseyfarth estimated 2% on 2017-10-26
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-12-10
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2018-12-12
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-10
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-10
• elephantower   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-12-31.
• elephantower said “wtf this prediction was just ridiculous” on 2019-12-31
• Pablo said “As far as I can tell, every single prediction made by James Miller in the comment from which this one is taken has turned out to be false.https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PybtwazftXzvcQSiQ/new-year-s-predictions-thread#yLkvM46nj5FobPt8Y” on 2019-12-31