Craig Wright will prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, where proof is defined as: Movement of Bitcoins from first 11 blocks OR signing a statement with key from block 0, mentioning Craig Wright by name

Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• mrmrpotatohead estimated 1% on 2016-05-04
• mrmrpotatohead changed the deadline from “on 2016-12-31” and changed their prediction from “Craig Wright will not prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, where proof is defined as: Movement of Bitcoins from coinbase originating in one of the first 11 blocks coinciding (+- 5 days) with a statement from Craig that he will be moving “Satoshi's coins” OR” on 2016-05-04
• mrmrpotatohead changed the deadline from “on 2016-12-31” and changed their prediction from “Craig Wright will not prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, where proof is defined as: Movement of Bitcoins from first 11 blocks OR signing a statement with key from block 1, mentioning Craig Wright by name” on 2016-05-04
• mrmrpotatohead changed the deadline from “on 2017-01-01” and changed their prediction from “Craig Wright will prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, where proof is defined as: Movement of Bitcoins from first 11 blocks OR signing a statement with key from block 1, mentioning Craig Wright by name” on 2016-05-04
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-05-05
• equivrel estimated 2% and said “not after his latest blog post…” on 2016-05-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-05-05
• ioannes estimated 1% and said “http://www.drcraigwright.net/” on 2016-05-05
• Peteris estimated 0% on 2016-05-10
• gwern said “he hasn’t successfully done this, definitely, and I haven’t heard about any early movements” on 2017-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.

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