Conditional on Gary Johnson getting 15% in 5 national polls, the Commission on Presidential Debates will invite him for a debate with Trump and Hillary.
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-10-19
- Bruno Parga estimated 67% on 2016-07-24
- Bruno Parga on 2016-07-24
- Bruno Parga said “15% in 5 national polls is the rule set by the CPD: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#History” on 2016-07-24
- Bruno Parga said “Related prediction: “A third party candidate will not participate in a presidential debate”, http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178788” on 2016-07-24
- Bruno Parga said “Related prediction (from 2012!) that a three-way debate would happen: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8074” on 2016-07-24
- Bruno Parga said “Related prediction: GJ to poll above 15% (no mention to the number of polls) and be included in the debate: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178328” on 2016-07-24
- Bruno Parga said “Related prediction: GJ to poll above 5% in five national polls, http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178974” on 2016-07-24
- themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-07-24
- RoryS estimated 65% on 2016-07-24
- mjm6404@psu.edu estimated 30% on 2016-07-30
- Bruno Parga estimated 80% and said “Since the Commission has instructed the host universities to prepare for the possibility of a three-way debate, and they have declared they might even invite Johnson if he was close but not at 15%, I’m updating my estimate.” on 2016-08-12
- Bruno Parga said “Source: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/debates-clinton-trump-johnson-stein-226806” on 2016-08-12
- Paul.David.Carr estimated 55% on 2016-09-01
- helldalgo estimated 63% on 2016-10-17
- Bruno Parga said “Since GJ did not poll above 15% in even one poll, and since this is a conditional prediction, I’ll be withdrawing it.” on 2016-10-19