Google+ will survive 5 more years

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.

  • gwern estimated 85% on 2013-05-02
  • RandomThinker said “what do you mean by survive? they might change the name, change the form, etc.on 2013-05-02
  • RandomThinker estimated 69% and said “They’ll probably change the name/form before 5 years is up. Will they keep the legacy version around? on 2013-05-03
  • holycow81 estimated 70% on 2013-05-27
  • JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2013-05-27
  • Tuxedage estimated 80% on 2013-05-28
  • Michael Dickens estimated 60% on 2013-06-16
  • Ken estimated 40% on 2013-06-17
  • procran estimated 50% on 2013-06-18
  • bobpage estimated 60% on 2013-11-14
  • rebellionkid estimated 50% on 2014-06-12
  • themusicgod1 estimated 43% on 2016-04-15
  • themusicgod1 estimated 39% on 2017-01-21
  • themusicgod1 estimated 67% on 2017-04-28
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2018-04-02.

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