Google+ will survive 5 more years

Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.

• gwern estimated 85% on 2013-05-02
• RandomThinker said “what do you mean by survive? they might change the name, change the form, etc.” on 2013-05-02
• RandomThinker estimated 69% and said “They’ll probably change the name/form before 5 years is up. Will they keep the legacy version around? ” on 2013-05-03
• holycow81 estimated 70% on 2013-05-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2013-05-27
• Tuxedage estimated 80% on 2013-05-28
• Michael Dickens estimated 60% on 2013-06-16
• Ken estimated 40% on 2013-06-17
• procran estimated 50% on 2013-06-18
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2013-11-14
• rebellionkid estimated 50% on 2014-06-12
• themusicgod1 estimated 43% on 2016-04-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 39% on 2017-01-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 67% on 2017-04-28
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2018-04-02.