Google Voice will survive 5 more years
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
- gwern estimated 50% on 2013-05-02
- gwern said “see http://www.gwern.net/Google%20shutdowns#predictions for explanation” on 2013-05-02
- RandomThinker said “@gwern interesting. Unlike others, I see Google as typically making short term, political oriented decisions. I agree with your results that acquisitions and FLOSS are first to go.” on 2013-05-03
- RandomThinker said “Social networking stuff they just keep changing names.” on 2013-05-03
- RandomThinker said “In that sense, they’re reverse yahoo. Yahoo keeps acquisitions and FLOSS around forever. They’re slow in changing names of their social networking efforts.” on 2013-05-03
- RandomThinker said “Would this be considered “surviving” if it’s not free?” on 2013-05-03
- gwern said “yes. it’s already not free, they charge for international calls IIRC. truth be told, google voice fans should be happy if voice stopped being free, because then they don’t have the excuse they did for reader (no revenue)” on 2013-05-03
- RandomThinker estimated 45% and said “I think if they start charging, it’ll die soon after. It only survives as long as it’s free.” on 2013-05-03
- RandomThinker said “I think Reader died because Google wanted to kill off RSS. They see it as stopping Google+ from success.” on 2013-05-03
- bradleybuda estimated 30% on 2013-05-04
- Tuxedage estimated 60% on 2013-05-05
- RandomThinker said “@gwern with all your google products, you missed one. Google Talk. That’s being killed next month. http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/05/29/google_hangouts_the_gchat_replacement_isn_t_compatible_with_other_im_platforms.html” on 2013-05-29
- Michael Dickens estimated 50% on 2013-06-16
- PseudonymousUser estimated 30% on 2013-11-14
- themusicgod1 estimated 57% on 2016-04-15
- gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Voice#2017_update still alive, yep.” on 2018-04-02
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2018-04-02.