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Google Search will survive 5 years

Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.

  • gwern estimated 100% on 2013-05-03
  • ShIxtan estimated 100% on 2013-05-08
  • Isaac estimated 100% on 2013-05-09
  • alecbrooks estimated 100% on 2013-05-15
  • holycow81 estimated 99% on 2013-05-27
  • Tuxedage estimated 100% on 2013-05-28
  • Michael Dickens estimated 95% on 2013-06-16
  • Ken estimated 100% on 2013-06-17
  • procran estimated 100% on 2013-06-18
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2013-11-14
  • sdr estimated 100% on 2013-11-14
  • rebellionkid estimated 100% on 2014-06-12
  • themusicgod1 estimated 99% and said “something that looks like it will, anyway.” on 2016-03-11
  • Temeraire estimated 95% on 2016-03-11
  • splorridge estimated 100% on 2016-04-06
  • Temeraire estimated 100% and said “no idea why my previous guess was so low. Maybe I didn’t notice the date properly” on 2016-11-30
  • themusicgod1 estimated 88% on 2017-04-28
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2018-04-02.