Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term

Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20

  • Bismagician estimated 98% on 2017-05-18
  • Bismagician estimated 98% and said “To clarify: Neither will he resign in his first term.on 2017-05-18
  • jprettner estimated 20% and said “Resigning under claims of harrassment will help Trump’s foreign business ventures. on 2017-05-18
  • themusicgod1 estimated 79% on 2017-05-19
  • aseyfarth estimated 75% and said “I think he would resign rather than be embarrassed.on 2017-05-19
  • playablecharacter estimated 96% and said “fuckin’ impeachment shitters on 2017-05-19
  • piers109uk estimated 88% and said “3 of 45 presidents have resigned or been impeached. 3:42 prior odds. I guess he’s ~2 times as likely to get impeached as any other. Makes 6:42 odds. Makes 87.5% chance he won’t be impeached. My gut says he won’t. on 2017-05-20
  • holycow81 estimated 80% on 2017-05-26
  • Bismagician changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-20” and changed their prediction from “Donald Trump will not be impeached in his first term” on 2017-05-27
  • gwern estimated 70% on 2017-05-27
  • Bruno Parga estimated 82% on 2017-05-28
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 90% on 2017-06-01
  • Paul.David.Carr estimated 60% on 2017-06-03
  • Alti Camelus estimated 45% and said “If he decides he hates being president, I doubt that a sense of duty will keep him in the job.on 2017-08-15
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 89% on 2017-08-21
  • Medea estimated 40% on 2017-10-15
  • Baeboo estimated 62% on 2017-10-15
  • aoeu estimated 99% on 2017-10-23
  • Tenobrus estimated 70% on 2017-11-09
  • Baeboo estimated 63% on 2017-11-22
  • Baeboo estimated 59% on 2017-12-02
  • davatk estimated 82% on 2018-04-26
  • Shannon estimated 80% on 2018-05-28
  • unexpectedEOF estimated 70% on 2018-06-01
  • moyamo estimated 70% on 2018-06-13

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