Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
- Bismagician estimated 98% on 2017-05-18
- Bismagician estimated 98% and said “To clarify: Neither will he resign in his first term.” on 2017-05-18
- jprettner estimated 20% and said “Resigning under claims of harrassment will help Trump’s foreign business ventures. ” on 2017-05-18
- themusicgod1 estimated 79% on 2017-05-19
- aseyfarth estimated 75% and said “I think he would resign rather than be embarrassed.” on 2017-05-19
- playablecharacter estimated 96% and said “fuckin’ impeachment shitters ” on 2017-05-19
- piers109uk estimated 88% and said “3 of 45 presidents have resigned or been impeached. 3:42 prior odds. I guess he’s ~2 times as likely to get impeached as any other. Makes 6:42 odds. Makes 87.5% chance he won’t be impeached. My gut says he won’t. ” on 2017-05-20
- holycow81 estimated 80% on 2017-05-26
- Bismagician changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-20” and changed their prediction from “Donald Trump will not be impeached in his first term” on 2017-05-27
- gwern estimated 70% on 2017-05-27
- Bruno Parga estimated 82% on 2017-05-28
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 90% on 2017-06-01
- Paul.David.Carr estimated 60% on 2017-06-03
- Alti Camelus estimated 45% and said “If he decides he hates being president, I doubt that a sense of duty will keep him in the job.” on 2017-08-15
- Pablo estimated 89% on 2017-08-21
- Medea estimated 40% on 2017-10-15
- Baeboo estimated 62% on 2017-10-15
- aoeu estimated 99% on 2017-10-23
- Tenobrus estimated 70% on 2017-11-09
- Baeboo estimated 63% on 2017-11-22
- Baeboo estimated 59% on 2017-12-02
- davatk estimated 82% on 2018-04-26
- Shannon estimated 80% on 2018-05-28
- unexpectedEOF estimated 70% on 2018-06-01
- moyamo estimated 70% on 2018-06-13
- pranomostro estimated 75% on 2018-09-25
- jazzsolo estimated 90% on 2018-12-03
- PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2019-03-08
- AlexLamson estimated 80% on 2019-04-16
- PseudonymousUser estimated 30% on 2019-09-23
- Bruno Parga estimated 10% on 2019-11-03
- Baeboo estimated 15% on 2019-11-03
- CaelumCodicem estimated 33% on 2019-11-06
- PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2019-12-11
- CaelumCodicem judged this prediction wrong on 2019-12-19.