'America’s credit rating will be taken down a notch' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-07.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “http://capitolcommentary.com/2011/01/01/capitol-commentary-2011-predictions/” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “the ratings agencies dont dare do that, for backlash and triggering financial apocalypses as pensions and other investors frantically sell. AAA through 2011!” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “cf similar failed predictions: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1575” on 2011-01-01
• Larks estimated 8% on 2011-01-01
• gimpf estimated 5% on 2011-01-09
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 35% on 2011-07-14
• gwern said “S&P just famously took down their rating a notch. Count as successful for this prediction?” on 2011-08-06
• gwern said “no objections, so I’m marking this right.” on 2011-08-07
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-08-07.