Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2012.

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-01-02
• gwern said “their CEO died, but they’re still operating” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.