Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2012.
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
- gwern estimated 5% on 2011-01-02
- gwern said “their CEO died, but they’re still operating” on 2011-12-31
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.
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