“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744828 nontrading” on 2011-08-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2011-08-14
• Nic_Smith estimated 5% on 2011-08-15
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 5% on 2012-04-25
• RandomThinker estimated 2% on 2012-04-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2012-04-25
• ygert estimated 5% on 2012-12-29
• ygert estimated 5% on 2012-12-29
• PseudonymousUser said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_program#De_facto_nuclear_state” on 2013-11-16
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2013-11-16
• commercecat estimated 0% on 2013-12-16
• fela estimated 0% on 2013-12-26
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.