Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-13.

• TwitterPredicts estimated 22% on 2009-07-04
• TwitterPredicts changed the deadline from “on 2011-07-04” and changed their prediction from “Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 campaign” on 2009-07-04
• anonym   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
• anonym   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-17.
• anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym estimated 15% on 2009-10-17
• faws estimated 31% on 2009-10-22
• gwern estimated 60% and said “This needs to be operationalized and a future date set. How about the January 2012 primaries?” on 2010-07-29
• gwern estimated 90% on 2010-11-26
• JoshuaZ said “There seems to be a bug in the system since I just got an email from the system linking to this prediction and describing it as one I created. ” on 2011-07-05
• TwitterPredicts changed the deadline from “on 2011-07-05” on 2011-07-05
• faws said “She isn’t unless she’s speculating on a brockered convention or intending to run as 3rd party candidate, and in that case we almost certainly won’t know any more by the end of the month. ” on 2012-01-13
• faws   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-13.