At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2015-02-24
  • JoshuaZ said “Context:on 2015-02-24
  • JoshuaZ said “Context: http://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/2whp5r/what_is_something_absolutely_mindblowing_and/covio77?context=3on 2015-02-24
  • RandomThinker estimated 5% and said “That’s only 5 years away. on 2015-02-24
  • JoshuaZ said “If you think it is that low maybe you should try to get them to make a bet with you also with even more favorable odds? on 2015-02-24
  • EloiseRosen estimated 10% on 2015-02-28
  • Chri estimated 2% on 2015-03-03
  • Rigulel estimated 2% on 2015-03-07
  • quicklystarfish estimated 8% on 2015-03-10
  • Unknowns estimated 1% on 2015-03-13
  • JoshuaZ said “Expand context for later reference: bet was with demultiplexer for reddit gold. on 2015-03-26
  • btrettel estimated 5% and said “There’s a strong probability (perhaps 50%) that self-driving car technology that can handle all the corner cases well (rain, etc.) will exist then. I think the legal hurdles will keep this from happening by the given date.on 2015-04-27
  • unexpectedEOF estimated 5% on 2015-08-15
  • themusicgod1 estimated 8% and said “Way too soon. That day is coming fast, but it won’t be 2020.on 2016-04-14
  • elephantower estimated 2% on 2016-07-10
  • two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Way too soon.on 2016-07-11
  • pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-12-08
  • Sgrunterundt estimated 2% and said “I am very optimistic about self-driving cars, but this timeline is just too fast.on 2019-05-19
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2019-05-21
  • jbeshir estimated 0% on 2020-02-08
  • EnergyParade estimated 0% on 2020-02-17
  • btrettel   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-02-24.

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