i will pass sra 311 ( 97% confidence )

Created by jmcglade 10 days ago; known in 3 days.

Helmut Schmidt to become a centenarian ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known in 5 days.

The Hometrack London house price index will be lower by the end of 2018 than today ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known in 5 days.

Personal, Productivity – I do French practice every day between 2018-12-10 and 2018-12-16 inclusive ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 2 days ago; known in 6 days.

#kocherga will get a CEA grant ( 20% confidence )

Created by crabman 11 days ago; known in 9 days.

I will have a new phone in 24 months (current MI3W) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known in 10 days.

Consumer-level “Trans cranial magnetic stimulation orgasmatron” (TMS device capable of producing orgasm ) hits the market ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known in 13 days.

US real GDP growth rate for 2018 will be under 2.0% ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known in 14 days.

Bill Gates “Digital transactions will rise to 50% of India's GDP in the next 2-3 years”. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known in 14 days.

Bharat Biotech will develop the first Zika vaccine by 2018. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-13; known in 14 days.

Ari Paul's $50k strike Bitcoin calls will expire in the money ( 5% confidence )

Created by ambisinister on 2017-12-24; known in 17 days.

Econ – The closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018 is between $1200 and $1250. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 21 days ago; known in 17 days.

Tech – Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization be on 28 December 2018 is between $360 billion and $430 billion. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 30 days ago; known in 18 days.

A leak or source from inside the NSA indicates that a surveillance program forbidden after today by the Supreme Court, another federal court, or act of congress has continued with little to no disruption ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by tedks on 2013-12-29; known in 18 days.

1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2018 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known in 19 days.

I will weigh 60kg+ ( 50% confidence )

Created by arun on 2018-01-01; known in 19 days.

Sensors/cameras in london public sewers, at least one UK citizen fined for putting tampons down the toilet ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-22; known in 20 days.

Some new form factor than cell phones/handheld robots start to credibly threaten the dominance of cell phones/handheld robots/laptops/tablets/desktop for near term future ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-18; known in 20 days.

Nuclear exchanging involving all 3 of US, Russia, China either beinig nuked, or nuking some other country within a week ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-24; known in 20 days.

Britain will leave the EU as a “soft Brexit”, keeping the four freedoms. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-06-20; known in 20 days.

Chandrayaan-2 (चन्द्रयान-२) 2nd lunar exploration mission. Launched by GSLV includes a lunar orbiter, rover and a lander landing on the moon and exploring. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known in 20 days.

Sign language becomes 3rd official language of Canada ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25; known in 20 days.

LUST ICO turns out to be a scam ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-03; known in 20 days.

Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known in 20 days.

Fessenheim Nuclear Power Plant closes ( 73% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known in 20 days.

redefinition of Kg before planck's constant is fixed ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known in 20 days.

“"Brooke Shields will be be a recipeint of the Kennedy Center Honors for her lifetime contributions to American culture through the performing arts, within the next fifteen years."” ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 20 days.

Flamanville 3 reactor startup ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known in 20 days.

Moore's law stops ; transistor count on intel CPUs/GPUs hasn't doubled in 18 months ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known in 20 days.

President Trump impeached for conspiring with enemies (russia or otherwise) ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known in 20 days.

NASA InSight is launched successfully ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-04; known in 20 days.

Moore's law stops : bitcoin hashrate has not doubled in past 18 months. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known in 20 days.

attawapiskat diamond mind starts to wind down production ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-03; known in 20 days.

I will still have a bivalvegan, or mostly bivalvegan (defined as buying meat/dairy products, if at all, perhaps once/twice a month) diet in three years time. ( 75% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-12-10; known in 20 days.

US Supreme Court legalizes explicit Vote Buying [Dataclysm] ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known in 20 days.

Half of world GDP is China. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-17; known in 20 days.

Legal battles over forehead penises, and the rights of the young rebels who choose to have them, begin. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known in 20 days.

consumer-level (if expensive) 2.5 micron resolution 3d printing in any material ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07; known in 20 days.

Dissident Irish republican groups launch an attack killing more than 5 people by the end of 2018 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-11; known in 20 days.

US health-care expenditure <=$4 trillion in 2018 —orthonormal ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known in 20 days.

US + Russia only have 1,150 nuclear warheads as per START treaty ( 47% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07; known in 20 days.

New homes built in Ontario will come ready with a power outlet in their garages — similar to a stove plug — to help Ontarians avoid costly electrical retrofits in the future (ie program to require it isn't cancelled before it kicks off). ( 83% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known in 20 days.

3-4 miners do 80%+ of mining for bitcoin [and any other mined cryptocurrency with bigger marketcap in USD than bitcoin] ( 59% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-01; known in 20 days.

3-4 “do everything” companies control 80%+ of hashrate of main cryptocurrency(Currently bitcoin) (ie companies that don't just provide hashes but large stack of services) ( 62% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-03; known in 20 days.

Mars Insight successfully lands on mars ( 31% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-04; known in 20 days.

“Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known in 20 days.

There will be a relevant (>10% vote in any election) third political party in the US before the end of 2018. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by artir on 2016-03-12; known in 20 days.

NASA will not announce “Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space” again within the next 5 years ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mfb on 2013-09-13; known in 20 days.

linux 3.2 no longer supported by kernel dev team ( 54% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-04; known in 20 days.

US health-care expenditure is less than or equal to $5 trillion in 2018. —orthonormal ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known in 20 days.