[Personal] Student paper on total difference labeling/total difference chromatic numbers to be published by September 25, 2022 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-05; known in about 8 hours.

I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known in 3 days.

I will travel to New York in September 2022. ( 65% confidence )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known in 5 days.

The SpaceX BFS to Mars missions will not stick to the schedule announced at IAC 2017. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known in 5 days.

By this data the goal I currently think is the most important one to me will be the same. ( 97% confidence )

Created by Soren on 2022-07-10; known in 5 days.

Alex Azzi Prediction: He will earn 100k / mo $ PROFIT on the jewelry brand by October 2022 ( 70% confidence )

Created by maneesh on 2021-09-03; known in 5 days.

I will have at least one specific aspect of my life personal data collection/analysis has improved in my life. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Soren on 2022-07-10; known in 6 days.

World War III by October 1, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known in 6 days.

D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known in 11 days.

Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known in 22 days.

Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known in 22 days.

I've spent 200 hours on one particular project ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mckiev on 2022-04-22; known in 26 days.

No human genome will be completely sequenced in the next 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aoeu on 2017-10-23; known in 29 days.

Portuguese government still provides free Covid vaccines by 1st Nov 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by LouisLC on 2022-05-14; known on 2022-11-01.

Republicans will win back both chambers of congress in 2022 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2022-11-08.

The user 8 will not write a single line of APL code that is relevant to his project. ( 99% confidence )

Created by bingbingwahoo on 2021-11-12; known on 2022-11-10.

Conjecture is at least somewhat often referred to as “The ‘Ject’”, as judged by either Ian or Tamera saying it is (only one has to agree) on November 15th 2022. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-11-15.

In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2022-11-17.

In a year, I will not regret getting into defi ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by claerity on 2021-11-23; known on 2022-11-23.

Our Ford Focus battery lasts 100,000 miles ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2022-11-30.

Eduardo Leite (PSDB) se candidata à presidência nas eleições de 2022. ( 65% confidence )

Created by rapinoinfeliz on 2020-07-22; known on 2022-12-01.

Dad gets a seat on the Otago Regional Council. ( 65% confidence )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-08-02; known on 2022-12-08.

Lula will be elected Brazil's next president in 2022. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by okayspm on 2021-10-04; known on 2022-12-11.

Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022 ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28; known on 2022-12-12.

The New Development Bank will make more loans in billions of dollars per year, than the IMF by 2022. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15; known on 2022-12-16.

Jair Bolsonaro not impeached until the end of his mandate ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2022-12-16.

palmeiras não será tricampeão da libertadores ( 100% confidence )

Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-12-16.

Malnutrition trends in Bharat: Stunting -Under 3 children in 2022 will be under 32.5%. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2022-12-17.

Kamala Harris will attend the Queen's funeral ( 65% confidence )

Created by johnmichaelbridge 11 days ago; known on 2022-12-19.

A Star Wars movie is released in December 2022 ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2022-12-25.

Eurozone sovereign debt crisis by 2022. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.

By 2022, child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 18.4%. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2022-12-25.

Spain will default on its debt by 2022. ( 43% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.

Zhongguo will be No 1 nation in nuclear power by 2022. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2022-12-25.

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will pass the World Bank in terms of loans(billions of dollars per year) made. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15; known on 2022-12-25.

The 2015 budget has 60 GW of wind power by 2022. Bharat will then place 2nd in the world from 5th. Source: Global Wind Energy Council http://www.gwec.net/ ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2022-12-25.

Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 11% confidence; 16 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.

Malnutrition trends in Bharat:By 2022 Wasting will be at 8.2% among under 3 children. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2022-12-25.

Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) of Bharat has released a year-by-year breakdown of solar capacity targets by states to reach its overall 100 GW solar capacity target by 2022. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-13; known on 2022-12-25.

Bharat will pass Nihon on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 3rd biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2022. However, Bharat will be one rank higher as the 2nd biggest economy in PPP terms. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2022-12-27.

I will meet definition of 'literally homeless' at some point before December 30th 2022 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2022-12-30.

Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness. ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-30.

A new technique for developing “conversational AI” neural networks will be popularized, whose generated content is less based on word-by-word prediction (like GPT-3) and more based on the semantics and concepts expressed by those words. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31.

Between 2020 and end of 2022, no non-Apple laptop will be released which performs better on general performance benchmarks than the lowest-priced laptop currently offered by Apple. ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31.

Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31.

Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ( 41% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2022-12-31.

Apple will release to the general public a merged, single version of their iOS and Mac OS operating systems by the end of 2022 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by separo on 2020-12-08; known on 2022-12-31.

Conditional on vaccine mandates being enacted, my sister will get vaccinated by end of 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-12-31.

I will end up opening that business with my teacher before the end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2022-12-31.