Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation—b being the dense former core of c. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-21; known in 5 days.

Training a new adversarial policy against kata1-b40c256-s11840935168-d2898845681 at 1600 playouts using the same hyperparameters we've been using thus far will fail to achieve a win rate of more than 50%. ( 70% confidence )

Created by norabelrose 19 days ago; known in 8 days.

The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known in 12 days.

[We will throw away the current data] Within 1 month ( 10% confidence )

Created by beth_b 15 days ago; known in 16 days.

Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sjy on 2019-08-18; known in 16 days.

[We will throw away the current data] within 3 months ( 30% confidence )

Created by beth_b 15 days ago; known in 16 days.

[We will throw away the current data] within a year ( 70% confidence )

Created by beth_b 15 days ago; known in 16 days.

Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known in 17 days.

[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 20% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known in 28 days.

[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 23% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 25% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known in 28 days.

[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 22% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 60% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known in 28 days.

I will play a video game on my laptop before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 20 days ago; known in 30 days.

Will I get an extension to the SERI MATS program? ( 40% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 20 days ago; known in 30 days.

Will I make a prediction in prediction before the end of the SERI MATS program after today. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 19 days ago; known in 30 days.

My idea about how to operationalize roundness will be correct to a significant degree (only some small things are missing and the definition largely makes sense). ( 40% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 19 days ago; known in 30 days.

Quintin will get an extension to the SERI MATS program ( 98% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 19 days ago; known in 30 days.

After the SERI MATS program, I will estimate that I would have paid all my money to participate in it. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 20 days ago; known in 30 days.

I will not drink so much soylent that I will feel sick before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 20 days ago; known in 30 days.

I will use the lightcone nap room at least one more time, before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 97% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 19 days ago; known in 30 days.

I will buy and use the Z3 fold as my new phone. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 20 days ago; known in 30 days.

Garrett and Chu will both get an extension to the SERI MATS program. ( 88% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 19 days ago; known in 30 days.

There will be another event at the Rosegarden Inn that I will go to during SERI MATS. ( 98% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 19 days ago; known in 30 days.

I will never eat a candy bar again during the SERI MATS program. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 19 days ago; known on 2022-09-15.

Hans Dehmelt will become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2022-09-16.

BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-09-16; known on 2022-09-16.

I will resolve all of the predictions I will make today once they are running out, within one week of them running out (for events that have a resolution deadline within one week of the end of SERI MATS). ( 40% confidence )

Created by Johannes C. Mayer 19 days ago; known on 2022-09-22.

No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2022-09-24.

It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.

Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.

[Personal] Student paper on total difference labeling/total difference chromatic numbers to be published by September 25, 2022 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-05; known on 2022-09-26.

I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29.

The SpaceX BFS to Mars missions will not stick to the schedule announced at IAC 2017. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2022-10-01.

Alex Azzi Prediction: He will earn 100k / mo $ PROFIT on the jewelry brand by October 2022 ( 70% confidence )

Created by maneesh on 2021-09-03; known on 2022-10-01.

I will travel to New York in September 2022. ( 65% confidence )

Created by peterbarnett 19 days ago; known on 2022-10-01.

By this data the goal I currently think is the most important one to me will be the same. ( 97% confidence )

Created by Soren on 2022-07-10; known on 2022-10-01.

I will have at least one specific aspect of my life personal data collection/analysis has improved in my life. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Soren on 2022-07-10; known on 2022-10-01.

World War III by October 1, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-10-02.

D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2022-10-06.

Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.

Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.

I've spent 200 hours on one particular project ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mckiev on 2022-04-22; known on 2022-10-22.

No human genome will be completely sequenced in the next 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aoeu on 2017-10-23; known on 2022-10-24.

Portuguese government still provides free Covid vaccines by 1st Nov 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by LouisLC on 2022-05-14; known on 2022-11-01.

Republicans will win back both chambers of congress in 2022 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2022-11-08.

The user 8 will not write a single line of APL code that is relevant to his project. ( 99% confidence )

Created by bingbingwahoo on 2021-11-12; known on 2022-11-10.

Conjecture is at least somewhat often referred to as “The ‘Ject’”, as judged by either Ian or Tamera saying it is (only one has to agree) on November 15th 2022. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peterbarnett 19 days ago; known on 2022-11-15.

In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2022-11-17.

In a year, I will not regret getting into defi ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by claerity on 2021-11-23; known on 2022-11-23.

Our Ford Focus battery lasts 100,000 miles ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2022-11-30.