No Trump family indictments in 2021 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known in 1 day.

Rafael Nadal will win the Australian Open 2022. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by chemotaxis101 10 days ago; known in 1 day.

I will be alive on my 33rd birthday. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known in 1 day.

French government announces lockdown for unvaccinated before end of January (for non-essential shops) ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-04; known in 2 days.

Business, US – At close of trading on 2022-01-31, GameStop (GME) is worth less than 100 USD. ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known in 3 days.

Average world temperature increases relative to 2020 as measured by NASA with Lowess smoothing (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). ( 99% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known in 3 days.

[This semester I will fail] no course ( 10% confidence )

Created by fryolysis on 2021-12-29; known in 3 days.

The Californian 2021 fire season will burn more than 4,257,863 acres (as reported by a CalFire page such as https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/ or https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/) ( 30% confidence )

Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known in 3 days.

Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known in 3 days.

[This semester I will fail] 2 courses ( 50% confidence )

Created by fryolysis on 2021-12-29; known in 3 days.

[This semester I will fail] 1 course ( 40% confidence )

Created by fryolysis on 2021-12-29; known in 3 days.

I will complete and publish the scout mindset review by 2022-02-01 ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by blin on 2021-12-29; known in 3 days.

Australia has 200,000 COVID cases a day by late January ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sjy on 2021-12-30; known in 3 days.

employer will approve my request to stay remote indefinitely ( 45% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known in 3 days.

Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known in 3 days.

Finance, US – DTCC found guilty by any kind of court or regulator for misconduct relating to handling of “counterfeit” GameStop (GME) shares by deadline. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-02; known in 4 days.

In-person learning at Emory will resume on January 31 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by michaelchen 16 days ago; known in 4 days.

At least 120 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by michaelchen 16 days ago; known in 7 days.

World War 3 next year ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known in 8 days.

bitcoin worth 66k+ in a year ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known in 10 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in men's singles will be:] Mikhail Kolyada ( 0% confidence )

Created by huera 28 days ago; known in 13 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in men's singles will be:] Yuzuru Hanyu ( 60% confidence )

Created by huera 28 days ago; known in 13 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in men's singles will be:] Nathan Chen ( 38% confidence )

Created by huera 28 days ago; known in 13 days.

there will not be a UK covid lockdown within the next 5 months ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gurgus on 2021-09-13; known in 15 days.

Bugzy Malone will release a #1 UK album or EP in the next 5 years. (If he dies or goes to jail for more than 6 months this prediction will be withdrawn) ( 70% confidence )

Created by bendini on 2017-02-14; known in 16 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in ice dance will be:] Papadakis / Cizeron ( 93% confidence )

Created by huera 27 days ago; known in 16 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in ice dance will be:] Sinitsina / Katsalapov ( 5% confidence )

Created by huera 27 days ago; known in 16 days.

New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by February 2022 ( 40% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known in 17 days.

My paper will be accepted this time. ( 80% confidence )

Created by fryolysis 26 days ago; known in 17 days.

The steelers will win the superbowl ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Nate13195 on 2021-11-10; known in 17 days.

The next German president (Bundespräsident) is female (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_German_presidential_election) ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by predictorrr on 2021-11-30; known in 19 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Kaori Sakamoto ( 0% confidence )

Created by huera 27 days ago; known in 20 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Anna Shcherbakova ( 1% confidence )

Created by huera 27 days ago; known in 20 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Kamila Valieva ( 97% confidence )

Created by huera 27 days ago; known in 20 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Alexandra Trusova ( 2% confidence )

Created by huera 27 days ago; known in 20 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Loena Hendrickx ( 0% confidence )

Created by huera 27 days ago; known in 20 days.

http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known in 20 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in pairs will be:] Mishina / Galliamov ( 70% confidence )

Created by huera 27 days ago; known in 22 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in pairs will be:] Boikova / Kozlovskii ( 10% confidence )

Created by huera 27 days ago; known in 22 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in pairs will be:] Tarasova / Morozov ( 5% confidence )

Created by huera 27 days ago; known in 22 days.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in pairs will be:] Sui / Han ( 15% confidence )

Created by huera 27 days ago; known in 22 days.

I will get into a debate with a close friend about having kids and fighting climate change ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by _galvo_ 11 days ago; known in 29 days.

The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football) ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-02-28.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 23 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Die Linke (socialist party) ( 3% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] SPD (social democratic party) ( 12% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] none of these parties ( 1% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] AfD (nationalist party) ( 2% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] FDP (liberal party) ( 2% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] CDU or CSU (conservative party) ( 40% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.