Upcoming Predictions
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Bitcoin will have increased in value relative to the British pound by this time next year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-18; known in 1 day.
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Epi Cortes cortes antonia 2549808-magdalena Dejca ( 90% confidence )
Created by Mon23 1 day ago; known in 3 days.
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80000 Key ideas translated and published online in Russian by ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known in 7 days.
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Bakhmut completely in Ukrainian control by June 30, 2023 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-05-12; known in 13 days.
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Case-Shiller National (CSUSHPINSA) will not increase above 303.757 until 30-yr fixed (MORTGAGE30US) is below 6.5% for the prior month, through June 2023. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-10-28; known in 14 days.
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The federal reserve will continue raising interest rates through June 2023. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ebloch on 2022-11-09; known in 14 days.
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Michelle will do pathology. ( 10% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-01-07; known in 14 days.
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The new host of “The Daily Show” will be Hasan Minhaj ( 60% confidence )
Created by greene on 2023-03-29; known in 14 days.
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Adept AI's demo is way better than it can actually do (https://twitter.com/AdeptAILabs/status/1590396065072951296) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by cmessinger on 2022-11-10; known in 15 days.
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John Bannister Goodenough will reach the age of 101 years old ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-03; known on 2023-07-25.
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I will continue to think that AI alignment (including governance, multiagent, field building etc) is the most important thing for me to work on July 27th 2023. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-07-27.
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With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29.
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65208374 – lymfoom ( 20% confidence )
Created by Mathieu_VDM 16 days ago; known on 2023-08-01.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16.
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Trump indicted in Georgia between August 4 – 18 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 23 days ago; known on 2023-08-19.
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I will become Masters at SC2 by end of Summer, 2023 ( 60% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-09-01.
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Khe Hy's friend will not write 45 minutes 4x a week for 3 months. ( 90% confidence )
Created by kadavy 15 days ago; known on 2023-09-01.
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In mid-2023, Brazil will have had mild GDP growth, but Bolsonarist bubbles will claim that these results are fake and Brazil is in a recession ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-09-01.
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S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National (CSUSHPINSA) for June 2023 is less than 313.4. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-09-01.
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Amazon superará a Cencosud en Sudamérica dentro de 5 años. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-03; known on 2023-09-03.
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“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known on 2023-09-20.
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Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 23 days ago; known on 2023-09-28.
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The 'Attack on Titan' anime has an “AOE”, i.e. an ending which diverges significantly from the manga ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-10-07.
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Cr1TiKaL says 'Attack on Titan' has a bad ending ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-10-07.
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Elections will be held in October 2023 in Pakistan? ( 75% confidence )
Created by Najoomi on 2023-05-14; known on 2023-10-08.
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I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.
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Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.
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Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by raehik on 2018-10-13; known on 2023-10-13.
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I get in to med school ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-10-15.
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26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by October 18, 2023 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-07; known on 2023-10-18.
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Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-11-08.
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Republicans will take both houses of Congress in 2022. Without federal legislation protecting voting rights. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-25; known on 2023-11-16.
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Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-01; known on 2023-12-01.
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A-1 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.
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A-2 was caffeine ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.
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A-3 was caffeine ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.
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A-4 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.
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I will not go to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas again in 2023 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-12-01.
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Javier Milei will win the 2023 presidential elections in Argentina. ( 60% confidence )
Created by joaquin on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-12-01.
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I will post a tweet between Dec 1 2023 and Dec 7 2023 (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-12; known on 2023-12-07.
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Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2023-12-16.
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Will I have significantly less back pain in one year. ( 20% confidence )
Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.
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Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.
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No US city with a population of over a million people will require covid vaccines for indoor dining on December 22, 2023. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-22; known on 2023-12-23.
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USA will default on its debt. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2023-12-25.
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“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.” ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.
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Resolute gets treble damages against Greenpeace thanks to RICO (from 2017 case) ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-08; known on 2023-12-31.
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New license or license type (like Creative Commons) will be created to try preventing unauthorized use of one own's written, picture, or video material to train AI (eg. LLM) ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-12-31.
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“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.” ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.
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At least one Trump National Security Lottery is put on by the US federal government ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-25; known on 2023-12-31.
