Ethereum's price at 2017-08-19 01:00 UTC+0 will be higher than at 2017-07-19 01:00 UTC+0 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known in about 3 hours.

If I receive the screen and it works, then during one month of usage I won't get annoyed with its dead pixels (if any). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known in 1 day.

I will attend Gen Con for at least one day of August 17-20, 2017 ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20; known in 1 day.

Ethereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known in 1 day.

ETC forks in relation to https://predictionbook.com/predictions/183982 before ETH ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-20; known in 1 day.

Connor McGregor will lose against Floyd Mayweather ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by liamesteban 5 days ago; known in 7 days.

Conor McGregor wins against Floyd Mayweather Jr. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by bendini 15 days ago; known in 8 days.

Investor, producer or high-ranking internal official of Game of Thrones staff blames shorter season on piracy. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by shm on 2017-05-24; known in 8 days.

North Korea fires missiles at Guam, at least 1 casualty ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 8 days ago; known in 12 days.

GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors excluding Good Ventures who donate more than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $50 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $27 million (plus money with uncertain attribution). ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known in 13 days.

Jeff Sessions will still be Attorney General on September 1st. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus 22 days ago; known in 13 days.

my social media activity will get me fired this summer ( 34% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-15; known in 13 days.

Personal, Business Interactions – To my knowledge, BT has not caused a phone line other than my own to cease working during the process of switching my line over before the start of September. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 18 days ago; known in 13 days.

Tech – Amazon announces plans to offers connectivity or phone plans as an add on to Amazon Prime by the end of August 2017. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known in 13 days.

Politics, Turkey – Turhan Gunay is found guilty of any charge before the start of the 1st of September. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 26 days ago; known in 13 days.

Politics, US – Trump issues a pardon for a family member, or a current or previous employee of the US Executive Branch or his campaign, before the start of September 2017. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 26 days ago; known in 13 days.

Politics, Venezuela – At least one of the Supreme Court justices appointed on the 21st of July 2017 is arrested between then and the start of September 2017. ( 75% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 26 days ago; known in 13 days.

Business, UK – Boots reduces price on a version of Levonelle (including generic or non-branded) to below £20 before the 1st of September 2017. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 29 days ago; known in 13 days.

Politics, US – General Sessions Judge Sam Benningfield's standing order such that prisoner's sentences are reduced in exchange for vasectomies is no longer in effect at the start of the 1st of September 2017. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 29 days ago; known in 13 days.

Politics, EU – EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of August 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 29 days ago; known in 13 days.

Personal, Business Interactions – I actually have my Internet connection being served by BT before the start of the 1st of September 2017. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 27 days ago; known in 13 days.

The company I am interning at will try to hire me. (if they ask me whether I want to work for them and I say no, it still counts) ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman 11 days ago; known in 13 days.

I will not complain to Uhaul or my insurance company about damage to/theft of the contents of my Uboxes ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel 12 days ago; known in 13 days.

GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors donating less than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $20 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $13 million. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known in 14 days.

I will be single on Sep 1, 2017 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known in 14 days.

Yvain will have more LessWrong karma than me in 5 years. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known in 16 days.

North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of August 2017 ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead 5 days ago; known in 17 days.

I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 5 years. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known in 19 days.

[North Korea launches at Guam] at least one missile ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known in 22 days.

[North Korea launches at Guam] at least two missiles ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known in 22 days.

[North Korea launches at Guam] at least three missiles ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known in 22 days.

[North Korea launches at Guam] at least four missiles ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known in 22 days.

Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 3 months) ( 10% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-12; known in 23 days.

The High Court of Australia will rule that the Government's proposal to conduct a postal plebiscite on same sex marriage is an invalid exercise of executive power ( 75% confidence )

Created by sjy 4 days ago; known in 24 days.

I will decide to pursue a career in biology during the next 2 months #personal ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known in 28 days.

The company I am interning at will hire Yaroslav, who is another intern. He seems hardworking. ( 50% confidence )

Created by crabman 11 days ago; known in 29 days.

The company I am interning at will hire Ildar ( 30% confidence )

Created by crabman 11 days ago; known in 29 days.

I will launch a landing page for onashirt in the next 6 months ( 60% confidence )

Created by mala on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-09-20.

I will do a postgrad degree in neuroscience or cognitive science in 2017-18 ( 34% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known on 2017-09-20.

I will do a postgrad degree in computer science in 2017-18 ( 22% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known on 2017-09-20.

I will do a postgrad degree in philosophy in 2017-18 ( 31% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known on 2017-09-20.

I will do a postgrad degree in anthropology in 2017-18 ( 8% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known on 2017-09-20.

I have a job different from the one I had on 6/25/17. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-09-21.

by age 6 months, my baby's eyes will be hazel or grey/green ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by taryneast on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-09-21.

by age six months, my baby's eyes will still be blue ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by taryneast on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-09-21.

A minecraft-style MMO (simple sandbox game supporting > 500 players) will launch within 5 years ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2017-09-26.

“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 17% confidence; 31 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26.

No paper primarily about Geoff Anders' Connection Theory will be published in a peer-reviewed psychology journal in the next 5 years. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-27; known on 2017-09-27.

LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30.

New flagship OLED iPhone will ship without Touch ID ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2017-07-03; known on 2017-10-01.