World share in science papers for the United States fell from 33% in 2003 to 27.8% in 2012.By 2021 it will be under 22.6%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known in 1 day.

Bharat had 21,269 Web of science papers in 2003 to 45,639 in 2012.Bharat's world share will increase from 3.6% to a lower bound of 4.7%, 66,700 science papers by 2021. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known in 1 day.

3:4 people will apply to be board members in EA ( 80% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known in 1 day.

20:25 points will separate the top 2 drivers in the formula one championship ( 80% confidence )

Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known in 3 days.

NGUYỄN HÀ CHI / VDUH^2100101709 u sau PM: nang ruột đôi ( 30% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 16 days ago; known in 5 days.

ĐỖ DUY HOÀ / VDUH^2100101752 u máu gan trái ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 16 days ago; known in 5 days.

World currences will become truly “credit-based” by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known in 7 days.

Brasil’s research papers in Web of Science increased in 2003 to 2012 from 1.7% to 2.7%. It's world share will be at least 3.7% by 2021. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known in 7 days.

By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by coyotespike on 2016-01-07; known in 7 days.

New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by December 2021 ( 20% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known in 7 days.

Bharat will be ranked No3 in the world for science by 2022(ranked by Citable documents, Scopus DB). ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known in 8 days.

This semester, I will have the time to talk object programming in the introduction to Python class. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-10-13; known in 11 days.

3.4:3.8 GPA at the end of the semester ( 80% confidence )

Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known in 15 days.

In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known in 16 days.

Avatar 2 is released in December 2021 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known in 16 days.

The world share for Zhongguo in science papers has increased from 5.6% in 2003 to 14% in 2012, and will reach at least 22.4% in 2021. This will be higher than the US percentage. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 100% confidence )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known in 16 days.

1 person helicopter drones in commercial use ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known in 16 days.

Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known in 16 days.

EU's world share in science papers declined from 38.5% in 2003 to 35.5% in 2012, and by 2021 will be under 32.5%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known in 16 days.

Bharat will be ranked 4th in the world by 2021 for zinc production. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known in 16 days.

Bharat will be ranked 7th in 2021, up from 13th in 2014 in the Nature Index.(Qualitative Science ranking) ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known in 16 days.

1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known in 16 days.

There will not be a pandemic by Christmas 2021 (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by wizzwizz4 on 2021-01-11; known in 18 days.

In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known in 20 days.

Diablo IV is released in 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known in 22 days.

GPT-3 or comparably advanced AI will be used to generate in-game AI behavior, gameplay logic, and/or story/plot content in a AAA game. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known in 22 days.

0% corporate tax in US ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known in 22 days.

1-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known in 22 days.

Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021. ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known in 22 days.

Starship reaches space by December 31 this year ( 40% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known in 22 days.

Australia will open its borders to travellers from Canada, without an exemption or quarantine requirement, at some point in 2021 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sjy on 2021-01-01; known in 22 days.

Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known in 22 days.

By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known in 23 days.

Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-09-12; known in 23 days.

Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2019-08-12; known in 23 days.

Tech – In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known in 23 days.

COVID, UK – UK exceeds a seven-day average of 100 deaths per day again (after this prediction) before the end of 2021. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known in 23 days.

The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known in 23 days.

Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known in 23 days.

Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known in 23 days.

CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known in 23 days.

A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be widely legally available in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-04-06; known in 23 days.

Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known in 23 days.

Lebron James will average a triple double in an NBA season during his career ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known in 23 days.

'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known in 23 days.

Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known in 23 days.

North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known in 23 days.

MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known in 23 days.

One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known in 23 days.