Upcoming Predictions
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known in about 21 hours.
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Trudeau government implements a new NEP without being substantially different from the old one(ie doesn't subsidize alberta for loss) ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-24; known in 2 days.
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Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known in 2 days.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 44.000 dkk ( 50% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known in 2 days.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 48.000 dkk ( 80% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known in 2 days.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 46.000 dkk ( 70% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known in 2 days.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 50.000 dkk ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known in 2 days.
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By June 1, Donetsk and Lughansk under complete Russian control, and Ukraine to have officially dropped any plans of joining NATO or EU, and all sanctions on Russia lifted. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-01; known in 2 days.
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Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-06-14; known in 14 days.
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My number theory seminar students will this semester do enough research that they will have what I judge to be at least one paper's worth of results. ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-11; known in 16 days.
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Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-23; known in 16 days.
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Bitcoin will have increased in value relative to the British pound by this time next year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-18; known in 19 days.
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80000 Key ideas translated and published online in Russian by ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known in 25 days.
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Bakhmut completely in Ukrainian control by June 30, 2023 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ 18 days ago; known on 2023-06-30.
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The federal reserve will continue raising interest rates through June 2023. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ebloch on 2022-11-09; known on 2023-07-01.
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Michelle will do pathology. ( 10% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-01-07; known on 2023-07-01.
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The new host of “The Daily Show” will be Hasan Minhaj ( 60% confidence )
Created by greene on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-07-01.
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Case-Shiller National (CSUSHPINSA) will not increase above 303.757 until 30-yr fixed (MORTGAGE30US) is below 6.5% for the prior month, through June 2023. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-10-28; known on 2023-07-01.
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The U.S. federal debt ceiling is raised on or before June 30, 2023 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-25; known on 2023-07-01.
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Adept AI's demo is way better than it can actually do (https://twitter.com/AdeptAILabs/status/1590396065072951296) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by cmessinger on 2022-11-10; known on 2023-07-02.
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John Bannister Goodenough will reach the age of 101 years old ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-03; known on 2023-07-25.
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I will continue to think that AI alignment (including governance, multiagent, field building etc) is the most important thing for me to work on July 27th 2023. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-07-27.
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With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16.
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Trump indicted in Georgia between August 4 – 18 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 5 days ago; known on 2023-08-19.
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I will become Masters at SC2 by end of Summer, 2023 ( 60% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-09-01.
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In mid-2023, Brazil will have had mild GDP growth, but Bolsonarist bubbles will claim that these results are fake and Brazil is in a recession ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-09-01.
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S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National (CSUSHPINSA) for June 2023 is less than 313.4. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-09-01.
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Amazon superará a Cencosud en Sudamérica dentro de 5 años. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-03; known on 2023-09-03.
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“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known on 2023-09-20.
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Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 5 days ago; known on 2023-09-28.
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The 'Attack on Titan' anime has an “AOE”, i.e. an ending which diverges significantly from the manga ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-10-07.
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Cr1TiKaL says 'Attack on Titan' has a bad ending ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-10-07.
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Elections will be held in October 2023 in Pakistan? ( 75% confidence )
Created by Najoomi 16 days ago; known on 2023-10-08.
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Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.
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I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.
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Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by raehik on 2018-10-13; known on 2023-10-13.
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I get in to med school ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-10-15.
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26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by October 18, 2023 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-07; known on 2023-10-18.
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Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-11-08.
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Republicans will take both houses of Congress in 2022. Without federal legislation protecting voting rights. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-25; known on 2023-11-16.
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A-3 was caffeine ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.
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A-4 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.
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Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-01; known on 2023-12-01.
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I will not go to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas again in 2023 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-12-01.
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A-1 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.
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Javier Milei will win the 2023 presidential elections in Argentina. ( 60% confidence )
Created by joaquin on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-12-01.
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A-2 was caffeine ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.
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I will post a tweet between Dec 1 2023 and Dec 7 2023 (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-12; known on 2023-12-07.
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Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2023-12-16.