Apple will lose all its *NIX developer goodwill and become the equivalent of Microsoft — hated but a necessary evil. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by kyst on 2011-07-28; known in 1 day.

[Politics, India] Actor Rajinikanth wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known in 4 days.

[Politics, India] Actor Kamalhassan wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-16; known in 4 days.

at least 1 person executed for tor use, tor project social contract pivot not ruled out as contributing factor ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known in 4 days.

< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known in 4 days.

By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known in 4 days.

Nông Thị Niếm 65 67451 Mets: 60% GBM: 30% ( 60% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 1 day ago; known in 5 days.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known in 5 days.

I will have 1 or more friend daylios with tyler in July of this year ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known in 5 days.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-03 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known in 5 days.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-05-19 ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known in 5 days.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known in 5 days.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-04-10 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known in 5 days.

India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known in 7 days.

Lê Thị Dung 34 67364 GCT with multiple aneurysms ( 30% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 1 day ago; known in 12 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] a member of the former Soviet Union ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known in 13 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] the United States ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known in 13 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] France ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known in 13 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] Cuba ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known in 13 days.

New York, San Francisco or Los Angeles will impose a shelter-in-place order, close businesses, or limit group sizes on or before August 9, 2021 ( 60% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 7 days ago; known in 14 days.

Phùng Văn Vượng 31 Lymphoma/ Bệnh tủy tạo máu Leukemia ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 4 days ago; known in 17 days.

First virtual tourism in 7 years. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known in 17 days.

Trần Thị Thu Hiền 43 67376 GCT secondary ABC, maybe maglinant transformation ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 1 day ago; known in 19 days.

Mai Anh Tú 44 56931 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 1 day ago; known in 19 days.

“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 78% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known in 24 days.

Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M. ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by enolan on 2020-03-21; known in 24 days.

No in-person shopping week for Harvard College (2021-2022) ( 80% confidence )

Created by pseudotilitarian on 2021-06-13; known in 30 days.

Everybody (who wants to) is vaccinated against CoViD-19 in Germany by September ( 20% confidence )

Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $5 million in some of the animal welfare groups groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

“Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year” —Walt Crawford ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2021-09-01.

Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by September ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $3 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

I am going to produce more than 20 kg tomatoes ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alk on 2021-04-06; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07.

All my friends will be back at school next semester ( 70% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-06; known on 2021-09-10.

A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10.

Personal – I will have fully left my current position by Sept. 10th ( 80% confidence )

Created by EricClampton 28 days ago; known on 2021-09-10.

Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter. ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2021-09-14.

[stocks] Beyond meat upp 20% inom 60 månader ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

[stocks] Disney up ca 10% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

[stocks] Boing upp minst 30% inom 1 år ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

[stocks] EPR upp 40% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

[stocks] norwegian cruis upp 40% inom ett år ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

Blue Origin will charge between 50,000 to 200,000 for a ride on New Shepard. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-29; known on 2021-09-15.

In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16.

Leah and the FSF will make amends, LibreBoot, including Leah will become GNU Libreboot again ( 11% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2021-09-21.

TBPL takes over NOIC small business development centre, writes them off as a partner. ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2021-09-21.

I will end up at least starting an academic postgraduate degree (excludes things like a PGCE, or medical conversion course) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2021-09-22.

https://appfairness.org or a similar campaign gets Apple to either lower their fee or pull their own apps from the store ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by grin on 2020-09-24; known on 2021-09-24.