I will work for at least 8h today ( 55% confidence )

Created by KatjaGrace 28 minutes ago; known in about 4 hours.

[Personal] I will set a bench weight PR today. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Cato about 18 hours ago; known in about 11 hours.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Naïve) ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known in 1 day.

Dillashaw to beat Cejudo at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known in 1 day.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Sophisticated) ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known in 1 day.

Gillespie to beat Medeiros at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known in 1 day.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Naïve) ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known in 1 day.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Betting Odds ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known in 1 day.

Hernandez to beat Cerrone at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known in 1 day.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Sophisticated) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known in 1 day.

VanZant to beat Ostovich at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known in 1 day.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] One-Sided Laplace ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known in 1 day.

[Personal] I will travel to a different city this weekend. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Cato 5 days ago; known in 2 days.

I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-18). ( 10% confidence )

Created by notsonewuser about 20 hours ago; known in 6 days.

[Fighting] Bader to beat Emelianenko at Bellator 214. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Cato 9 days ago; known in 8 days.

If the chess AI competition occurs, I will win it. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Noa Nabeshima on 2018-12-09; known in 11 days.

I will be able to afford to sign up for cryonics by the time I'm 30. ( 95% confidence )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known in 11 days.

I will move to the silicon valley before I'm 30. ( 50% confidence )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known in 11 days.

I will join the SB hackathon ( 80% confidence )

Created by Noa Nabeshima on 2018-12-09; known in 12 days.

Econ – The percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018 is between 2.3% and 2.5% inclusive. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known in 12 days.

I will win my bet with Huw Price that 2/3rds of a panel of three physicists will assign less than 50% credence to cold fusion or other new-physics energy production by Andrea Rossi/Industrial Heat or Robert Godes/Brillouin Energy on New Year's Eve 2018. ( 99% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by CarlShulman on 2016-02-09; known in 12 days.

Australia will have an election before the end of January ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-25; known in 12 days.

I will finish “Stories of the Sahara” in January. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 15 days ago; known in 13 days.

Bryan Caplan's The Case Against Education will have a Wikipedia page about it within one month of publication, and the page will not be deleted for one year after publication of the page. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-05; known in 13 days.

The market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) will overtake the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of January 2019. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Anidrania on 2018-02-26; known in 13 days.

Tesla's stock will be above $310 per share as of February 1st, 2019. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2018-08-01; known in 13 days.

Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.6 or lower. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known in 13 days.

Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.7 or higher. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known in 13 days.

Politics, US – Trump declares a state of emergency prior to the 1st of February 2019. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 12 days ago; known in 13 days.

[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $1,250,000 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known in 13 days.

The Democratic Party will control the House after 2018 midterms. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known in 13 days.

[Personal] I will go to the gym 12x in the remaining 24 days in January. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 11 days ago; known in 13 days.

[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $750,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known in 13 days.

[Books] I will finish reading “Restless Empire” by January EOM. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Cato 11 days ago; known in 13 days.

Brent crude to be above $60/barrel by end of January ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known in 13 days.

Politics, US – U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports >=8000 “Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions” for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 27 days ago; known in 13 days.

The RWBY Wiki entry for Cinder Fall lists her as “Deceased” at the conclusion of Volume 6. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pvoberstein on 2018-01-14; known in 14 days.

The US government shutdown will end before February 1, 2019. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by notsonewuser 14 days ago; known in 14 days.

Facebook will report more than 1.5 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known in 19 days.

“[T]wo years from now, the Center will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field.” Prediction will prove true. ( 42% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-16; known in 19 days.

Facebook will report more than 1.6 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known in 19 days.

Functional Jubilee in the US ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known in 25 days.

[Commodities] US crude oil production in 2019-01 to exceed production in 2018-12 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Cato 3 days ago; known in 26 days.

Bryce Harper will sign a contract with minimum length of 10 years. ( 40% confidence )

Created by balfours_ghost 30 days ago; known in 27 days.

L will be working as an irl sexworker three months from now ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Somni on 2018-11-16; known in 29 days.

[Fighting] Cain Velasquez to beat Francis Ngannou at UFC on ESPN 1 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 5 days ago; known on 2019-02-18.

Emergent Ventures will provide a grant to Kernel (my project) ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by bendini on 2018-11-22; known on 2019-02-19.