Russia will win 2019 IIHF World Championship ( 70% confidence )

Created by stepan 4 days ago; known in about 4 hours.

The Brexit Party to come first in Britain in the 2019 European Parliament elections ( 64% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-02-09; known in about 24 hours.

German Humanist Party will get at least one seat in the European Parliament 2019 ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2018-02-04; known in 1 day.

[Politics] Right-populists to gain in EU parliamentary election ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known in 1 day.

Politics, US – In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known in 4 days.

Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) in the next 12 months. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known in 4 days.

Virgin Galactic to pass Karman line (100km altitude) within 12 months. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known in 4 days.

This prediction will have fewer than five wagers ( 80% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum about 4 hours ago; known in 4 days.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for April 2019 to exceed 50% ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known in 5 days.

[Commodities] Brent > WTI through May 2019 EOM ( 90% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known in 6 days.

Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of May ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known in 6 days.

Politics, Central America – Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known in 6 days.

[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] releasing Meng Wanzhou ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known in 6 days.

[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] still holding Meng Wanzhou ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known in 6 days.

[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] extraditing Meng Wanzhou to US ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known in 6 days.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in May for which data are published ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known in 6 days.

[Politics] NDA to win a majority of seats in Indian general election ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known in 6 days.

BJP will win no greater than 220 seats in 2019 general elections. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by roshni on 2014-10-26; known in 6 days.

I will work for Unity Technologies within a year of graduation from University of Washington ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known in 6 days.

[US-China] Trump and Xi to meet when Trump visits Asia later in May 2019 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 13 days ago; known in 6 days.

A confirmed dip of at least 10% in the brightness of Tabby's Star (KIC 8462852) will be observed. ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known in 6 days.

[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before May 2019 EOM ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known in 7 days.

[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] next steps by June 1st ( 5% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis 24 days ago; known in 7 days.

[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the table by June 1st ( 50% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis 24 days ago; known in 7 days.

[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the intro by June 1st ( 60% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis 24 days ago; known in 7 days.

[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the summary by June 1st ( 10% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis 24 days ago; known in 7 days.

Indonesia will devolve into a full-fledged islamic theocracy or decay into civil war-torn provinces largely dominated by Sharia law till the end of Ramadan 2019. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-23; known in 9 days.

Merlon intelligence will raise another round of funding within two years ( 60% confidence )

Created by Peteris on 2017-06-05; known in 10 days.

[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-high attendance, assuming it is not canceled ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known in 11 days.

[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-low attendance, assuming it is not canceled ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known in 11 days.

[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw fewer than 100,000 people, assuming it is not canceled ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known in 11 days.

[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] be canceled ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known in 11 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 12 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 12 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 12 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 12 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 35% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 12 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 12 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 12 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 12 days.

[Fighting] UFC 238 to be held as scheduled on June 8, 2019 ( 96% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known in 13 days.

Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lettergram on 2019-01-09; known in 14 days.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2018 ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 15 days.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 15 days.

[Commodities] As of June 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of May 2019 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known in 17 days.

Five years from today, at least one team in the 2014 YEI fellowship will be worth $100 million or more. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known in 18 days.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-Jun 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known in 19 days.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-Jun 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known in 19 days.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-Jun 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known in 19 days.

Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known in 20 days.