PredictionBook: Upcoming Predictions

Etherium will be more valuable than Bitcoin. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by s.zirai@live.de on 2018-03-20; known in about 8 hours.

[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 20 days ago; known in about 24 hours.

[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 20 days ago; known in about 24 hours.

[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 20 days ago; known in about 24 hours.

I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-15). ( 5% confidence )

Created by notsonewuser 5 days ago; known in 2 days.

Another Soyuz Fregat stage suffers some form of failure that leads to the loss or incorrect insertion of one or more satellites in the next two years. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22; known in 2 days.

[Fighting] Borys Mańkowski to beat Norman Parke at KSW 47 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato about 11 hours ago; known in 4 days.

I will still be using Prediction Book in 1 year's time. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known in 9 days.

Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings before the 30th of March 2019. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known in 10 days.

Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK and European Council agree to extend the Article 50 deadline. ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known in 10 days.

Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK revokes Article 50. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known in 10 days.

I will still be using NixOS in three months ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2019-01-01; known in 12 days.

Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 Q1 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known in 12 days.

[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 Q1 ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known in 12 days.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in March for which data are published ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known in 12 days.

[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known in 12 days.

US & China to announce end to trade war in Q1 2019. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known in 12 days.

Tech, AI – OpenAI publishes GPT-2 model weights before 2019-04-01 ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known in 12 days.

[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known in 12 days.

[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known in 12 days.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to meet in March 2019 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato 7 days ago; known in 12 days.

[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 1Q19 EOQ ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato 15 days ago; known in 12 days.

[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known in 12 days.

India's 2019 General Elections will be held before April 2019 ( 20% confidence )

Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known in 12 days.

[Politics] Either Juan Guaidó or Nicolás Maduro to flee Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known in 12 days.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known in 12 days.

[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 70 ( 1% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 12 days.

[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 60 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 12 days.

[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 55 ( 75% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 12 days.

[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 45 ( 85% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 12 days.

[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 50 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 12 days.

[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 40 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 12 days.

[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 65 ( 50% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 12 days.

[Estonian governing coalition] to include Conservatives (EKRE) ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known in 12 days.

[Estonian governing coalition] to be formed by end of March 2019 ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known in 12 days.

[Estonian governing coalition] to include Social Democrats (SDE) ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known in 12 days.

[Estonian governing coalition] to include Pro Patria (Isamaa) ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known in 12 days.

All charges against Meng Wanzhou to be dropped in Q1 2019. ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known in 12 days.

[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of March than at end of February 2019 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known in 12 days.

[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )