PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known in about 21 hours.

Trudeau government implements a new NEP without being substantially different from the old one(ie doesn't subsidize alberta for loss) ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-24; known in 2 days.

Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known in 2 days.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 44.000 dkk ( 50% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known in 2 days.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 48.000 dkk ( 80% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known in 2 days.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 46.000 dkk ( 70% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known in 2 days.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 50.000 dkk ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known in 2 days.

By June 1, Donetsk and Lughansk under complete Russian control, and Ukraine to have officially dropped any plans of joining NATO or EU, and all sanctions on Russia lifted. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-01; known in 2 days.

Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by halfwit on 2013-06-14; known in 14 days.

My number theory seminar students will this semester do enough research that they will have what I judge to be at least one paper's worth of results. ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-11; known in 16 days.

At least one of upcoming November, December, January, February, March, April or May to have at least 30,000 covid deaths in the US, or at least one pair of consecutive months with at least 50,000 covid deaths. ( 54% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-23; known in 16 days.

Bitcoin will have increased in value relative to the British pound by this time next year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-18; known in 19 days.

80000 Key ideas translated and published online in Russian by ( 60% confidence )

Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known in 25 days.

Bakhmut completely in Ukrainian control by June 30, 2023 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ 18 days ago; known on 2023-06-30.

The federal reserve will continue raising interest rates through June 2023. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ebloch on 2022-11-09; known on 2023-07-01.

Michelle will do pathology. ( 10% confidence )

Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-01-07; known on 2023-07-01.

The new host of “The Daily Show” will be Hasan Minhaj ( 60% confidence )

Created by greene on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-07-01.

Case-Shiller National (CSUSHPINSA) will not increase above 303.757 until 30-yr fixed (MORTGAGE30US) is below 6.5% for the prior month, through June 2023. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-10-28; known on 2023-07-01.

The U.S. federal debt ceiling is raised on or before June 30, 2023 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-25; known on 2023-07-01.

Adept AI's demo is way better than it can actually do (https://twitter.com/AdeptAILabs/status/1590396065072951296) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by cmessinger on 2022-11-10; known on 2023-07-02.

John Bannister Goodenough will reach the age of 101 years old ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-03; known on 2023-07-25.

I will continue to think that AI alignment (including governance, multiagent, field building etc) is the most important thing for me to work on July 27th 2023. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-07-27.

With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29.

Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16.

Trump indicted in Georgia between August 4 – 18 ( 75% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 5 days ago; known on 2023-08-19.

I will become Masters at SC2 by end of Summer, 2023 ( 60% confidence )

Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-09-01.

In mid-2023, Brazil will have had mild GDP growth, but Bolsonarist bubbles will claim that these results are fake and Brazil is in a recession ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-09-01.

S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National (CSUSHPINSA) for June 2023 is less than 313.4. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-09-01.

Amazon superará a Cencosud en Sudamérica dentro de 5 años. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-03; known on 2023-09-03.

“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known on 2023-09-20.

Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) ( 60% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 5 days ago; known on 2023-09-28.

The 'Attack on Titan' anime has an “AOE”, i.e. an ending which diverges significantly from the manga ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-10-07.

Cr1TiKaL says 'Attack on Titan' has a bad ending ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-10-07.

Elections will be held in October 2023 in Pakistan? ( 75% confidence )

Created by Najoomi 16 days ago; known on 2023-10-08.

Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by John Smith on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.

I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by John Smith on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.

Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by raehik on 2018-10-13; known on 2023-10-13.

I get in to med school ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-10-15.

26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by October 18, 2023 ( 80% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-07; known on 2023-10-18.

I will still think in early November 2023 that my moderate anxious personality is strongly related to my lifelong sort-of-“constant” internet usage, and in a causal way (internet → anxiety) which reflects my teenage years (10+) ( 90% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-11-08.

Republicans will take both houses of Congress in 2022. Without federal legislation protecting voting rights. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-25; known on 2023-11-16.

A-3 was caffeine ( 45% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.

A-4 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.

Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-01; known on 2023-12-01.

I will not go to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas again in 2023 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-12-01.

A-1 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.

Javier Milei will win the 2023 presidential elections in Argentina. ( 60% confidence )

Created by joaquin on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-12-01.

A-2 was caffeine ( 40% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01.

I will post a tweet between Dec 1 2023 and Dec 7 2023 (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-12; known on 2023-12-07.

Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2023-12-16.