At least one card from Temur Adventures will be banned as of next Friday. ( 30% confidence )

Created by aarongertler 6 days ago; known in about 16 hours.

[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 10/1 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known in about 23 hours.

Toby Ord comments on my post to clarify what he actually believes ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens 29 days ago; known in 1 day.

Basement construction will be finished by Oct 2 EOD ( 55% confidence )

Created by grin 10 days ago; known in 2 days.

Greta Thunberg will win the Nobel Peace Prize. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by najdorf 22 days ago; known in 7 days.

LeBron increases his ppg in the playoffs ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known in 8 days.

I will start some internship at the latest in October ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known in 9 days.

Delhi will be a relative COVID haven on Oct 10, 2020 and safe enough to go into the office and hang out with small groups ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by katriel on 2020-07-11; known in 9 days.

Fight by end of camping ( 35% confidence )

Created by seanbas 3 days ago; known in 9 days.

COVID, Europe/USA – Whithin 4 weeks, there will be more new infections per day in Europe than in the US. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by NickN 19 days ago; known in 11 days.

NBA makes it through the bubble without a league-wide shutdown ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known in 12 days.

At least one NBA team has 5+ players infected with the COVID ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known in 12 days.

I find that pumpkin seeds do actually make a difference to my sleep quality, that the initial experience wasn't just placebo ( 60% confidence )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-08-15; known in 13 days.

Personal – I weigh in below 62kg before end of 2020-10-15. ( 65% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known in 14 days.

UK schools will close again due a significant rise in COVID cases by 15th Oct 2020 ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mpstevensuk on 2020-09-01; known in 15 days.

There will be a “second wave” of coronavirus (increased # of daily US deaths relative to June) visible by fall 2020. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known in 15 days.

COVID, Germany – COVID death counts will go up whithin 8 weeks (Karl Lauterbach on Twitter) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-20; known in 19 days.

[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be French ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known in 19 days.

[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be British ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known in 19 days.

I will take the A. test in October ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known in 19 days.

[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Norwegian ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known in 19 days.

[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] No winner to be American ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known in 19 days.

[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Australian ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known in 19 days.

[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be American ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known in 19 days.

[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Chinese ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known in 19 days.

Telegram app will block in some countries. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by smodnix on 2020-06-24; known in 19 days.

[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Canadian ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known in 19 days.

[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] More than one winner ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known in 19 days.

[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Japanese ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known in 19 days.

[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Swedish ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known in 19 days.

Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known in 20 days.

US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 21 days.

I get a job offer from Google ( 50% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known in 21 days.

LVŽS to retain its plurality in Lithuania's parliament after 2020 election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known in 25 days.

[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 ( 43% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 26 days.

[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 26 days.

[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 26 days.

[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200 ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 26 days.

Reddit is blocked in the PRC as of 2020-10-29 ( 88% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 28 days.

UFC, Bellator, or ONE fighters to belong to a labor union ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 29 days.

More than 300,000 people will die from corona in the US ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by daveisright on 2020-03-14; known in 29 days.

My poker money will be positive by the end of October ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by fandangos 9 days ago; known in 30 days.

MLB season is shut down or significantly altered (eg. introduce a bubble) ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-10-31.

Tech – OnePlus 8T launches by end of October 2020, and has a 120Hz screen. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 25 days ago; known on 2020-11-01.

Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of October 2020 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-01.

As of 2020-11-01 Denison University has COVID prevention polices that are deemed to be stricter on balance than the policies they have adopted as of 2020-08-07 ( 70% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-08-07; known on 2020-11-01.

Andrew Yang runs as a third party candidate ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-03; known on 2020-11-01.

Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-02; known on 2020-11-01.

Erik Prince runs for Senate in 2020 ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-11-01.

Politics, US – An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith, and the FCC does so, prior to the start of November 2020 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-11-01.