Germany RKI reports more than 1000 CoViD-19 cases on a day within the next month ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc 28 days ago; known in 1 day.

Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by akarlin 13 days ago; known in 1 day.

If Sweden doesn't implement lockdowns, then their per capita coronavirus deaths will exceed the average of the other Nordic countries by 25% or more. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2020-04-10; known in 4 days.

Texas's daily new confirmed COVID cases will be >=8000 as of July 11, 2020, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9be2zJ). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by krazemon 23 days ago; known in 5 days.

Arizona's daily new COVID cases count will be >=6000, as measured by Google's tracker: https://g.co/kgs/8UHaz1, on July 11, 2020. ( 75% confidence )

Created by krazemon 23 days ago; known in 5 days.

Florida's daily new COVID cases count will be >=7500, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9XhcYm), on July 11, 2020. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by krazemon 23 days ago; known in 5 days.

Yasuhiro Nakasone will become the longest-lived Prime Minister of Japan ( 15% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known in 7 days.

After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%). ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known in 9 days.

Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known in 9 days.

Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known in 9 days.

The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known in 9 days.

Will Andrzej Duda be reelected as a president of Poland? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Polish_presidential_election ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michal_Dubrawski 15 days ago; known in 10 days.

uBeam will not (within 5 years) ship a wireless charging product that transmits more than 5W to a portable receiver. ( 90% confidence )

Created by James Babcock on 2015-07-30; known in 10 days.

The Democratic Nominee for president at the end of the 2020 Primaries will not support Medicare-for-All (as distinct from 'for all who want it', 'public option', or 'Path to M4A') ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jackzilla on 2019-07-24; known in 11 days.

BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sjy on 2017-07-18; known in 12 days.

[Fighting] Dana White to be president of the UFC as of 2020-07-23 ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known in 18 days.

France holds 'leave EU' referendum ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known in 18 days.

[Fighting] Frank Shamrock to be in the UFC Hall of Fame as of 2020-07-23 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known in 18 days.

The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known in 18 days.

Rainfall in 2020 will be at least 49% of historic levels in California. (Using the standard June to July year) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-23; known in 19 days.

[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 24 days.

[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 24 days.

[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 24 days.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NSE-All Share Nigeria (now 26584) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known in 25 days.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] OMX Tallinn (now 1236) ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known in 25 days.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NIKKEI 225 (now 21801) ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known in 25 days.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] DJIA (now 26756) ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known in 25 days.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] SSI Shanghai (now 2973) ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known in 25 days.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] KOSPI (now 2049) ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known in 25 days.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] FTSE 100 (now 7187) ( 43% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known in 25 days.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] Hang Seng (now 26307) ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known in 25 days.

< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 85% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known in 25 days.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] ASX 200 (now 6607) ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known in 25 days.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] CAC 40 (now 5628) ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known in 25 days.

Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known in 25 days.

Zuckerberg in prison ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known in 25 days.

1330926 język rosnie? ( 75% confidence )

Created by mackiewelina on 2020-05-09; known in 25 days.

<2M coronavirus deaths. ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known in 25 days.

Politics, UK – General instruction to all pubs to close is rescinded by end of July 2020. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known in 25 days.

COVID, US – Daily deaths exceed 900 for a day in July. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 2 days ago; known in 25 days.

COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 on a day in July. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known in 25 days.

Business, UK – Greene King announces that it will not charge its pub landlords rent for at least some period of the COVID-19 closures by end of July. ( 65% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known in 25 days.

Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020. ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known in 25 days.

Personal – I weigh less than 63kg by the end of July. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known in 25 days.

[Biden's VP pick will be] Maggie Hassan ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known in 26 days.

[Biden's VP pick will be] Michelle Lujan Grisham ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known in 26 days.

[Biden's VP pick will be] Stacey Abrams ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known in 26 days.

[Biden's VP pick will be] Someone else ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known in 26 days.

[Biden's VP pick will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known in 26 days.

[Biden's VP pick will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known in 26 days.