Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known in about 5 hours.

US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in about 17 hours.

I get a job offer from Google ( 50% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known in 1 day.

1190432 MCN maligne entartet ( 75% confidence )

Created by prosti 1 day ago; known in 1 day.

LVŽS to retain its plurality in Lithuania's parliament after 2020 election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known in 5 days.

[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 ( 43% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 6 days.

[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200 ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 6 days.

[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 6 days.

[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 6 days.

Reddit is blocked in the PRC as of 2020-10-29 ( 89% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 8 days.

More than 300,000 people will die from corona in the US ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by daveisright on 2020-03-14; known in 9 days.

UFC, Bellator, or ONE fighters to belong to a labor union ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known in 9 days.

My poker money will be positive by the end of October ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by fandangos 29 days ago; known in 10 days.

MLB season is shut down or significantly altered (eg. introduce a bubble) ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known in 10 days.

Tech – OnePlus 8T launches by end of October 2020, and has a 120Hz screen. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-06; known in 10 days.

Erik Prince runs for Senate in 2020 ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-05; known in 11 days.

Politics, UK – Tavistock Judicial Review rules that a court order is necessary for the prescription of puberty blockers to teenagers as a part of GIDS. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 13 days ago; known in 11 days.

Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of October 2020 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known in 11 days.

miguelyt*b's husband's Google account was disabled for containing CSAM ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by bobpage 6 days ago; known in 11 days.

As of 2020-11-01 Denison University has COVID prevention polices that are deemed to be stricter on balance than the policies they have adopted as of 2020-08-07 ( 70% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-08-07; known in 11 days.

Politics, UK – Extinction Rebellion as an organisation is classified as an organised crime or terrorism group on any government list, proscribed, or otherwise legally restricted in a manner not extending to other organisations by end of Oct. ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-06; known in 11 days.

Andrew Yang runs as a third party candidate ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-03; known in 11 days.

Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-02; known in 11 days.

covid Restrictions on air travel will be lifted (as pertains to SJ's MS job) by November 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kjaques on 2020-04-29; known in 11 days.

There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running)  ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known in 11 days.

Politics, US – An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith, and the FCC does so, prior to the start of November 2020 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known in 11 days.

Gladys Berejiklian will still be the Premier of New South Wales on 1 November 2020 ( 80% confidence )

Created by sjy 9 days ago; known in 11 days.

Using my webcam teleprompter will bring me joy ( 85% confidence )

Created by grin on 2020-09-04; known in 11 days.

SpaceX Crew-1 will dock with the ISS before November 1 2020 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by finback on 2020-08-28; known in 11 days.

Politics, US – By November 2nd, 2020, Twitter temporarily or permanently suspends @realDonaldTrump, or @teamtrump, or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 25 days ago; known in 11 days.

OSU is online only by 1 November ( 80% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04; known in 12 days.

Politics, US – Before 3 November 2020, federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments becomes law. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-26; known in 12 days.

Oprah Winfrey will run for president in 2020. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iCrown on 2018-02-26; known in 13 days.

Supreme Court Nomination seen through before Pres election. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by seanbas 25 days ago; known in 13 days.

Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term ( 52% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known in 13 days.

Mitt Romney will endorse Joe Biden before the 2020 election ( 34% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-30; known in 13 days.

Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known in 13 days.

[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term ( 45% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known in 13 days.

Biden will drop out of the race before election day Nov 3. ( 7% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ender Wiggin on 2020-07-27; known in 13 days.

Trump wins 2020 election ( 41% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known in 13 days.

[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 17 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known in 14 days.

[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 16 ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known in 14 days.

[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 13 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known in 14 days.

Democrats will keep the house and take the senate in 2020 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known in 14 days.

S&P500 crashes by more than 5% in a session within 3 months. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by abelriboulot on 2020-08-04; known in 14 days.

Kanye or Kim will run for President in 2020. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ldor_11 on 2018-06-18; known in 14 days.

[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 15 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known in 14 days.

Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 55% confidence; 17 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known in 14 days.

[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 20 or more ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known in 14 days.

[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 19 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known in 14 days.