Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency. ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known in 2 days.

[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term ( 86% confidence; 15 wagers )

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known in 2 days.

US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known in 2 days.

US dollar becomes an asset-backed currency under Trump's first term ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known in 2 days.

Joe Biden's administration will officially transition into power on schedule. ( 95% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by aspire43 1 day ago; known in 2 days.

Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known in 2 days.

Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known in 2 days.

Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known in 2 days.

Politics, US – Donald Trump attempts to issue a pardon for himself before the end of the 20th of January 2021. ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by jbeshir 14 days ago; known in 3 days.

Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by LukeS on 2020-11-21; known in 3 days.

At least one bombing causes at least one death in the US before Jan 21st ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technillogue 6 days ago; known in 3 days.

A US elected official or non-LEO civilian employee is killed by a Trump supporter in or near a government building ( 5% confidence )

Created by technillogue 6 days ago; known in 3 days.

Trump will attempt to pardon himself. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath about 14 hours ago; known in 3 days.

Trump will not be convicted by the Senate before January 20th ( 99% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath about 14 hours ago; known in 3 days.

The House votes to impeach Trump a second time before the end of his term. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PlacidPlatypus 10 days ago; known in 3 days.

A US government building is occupied for more than three hours ( 3% confidence )

Created by technillogue 6 days ago; known in 3 days.

at least two government buildings in different states are occupied for at least an hour before jan 21st ( 41% confidence )

Created by technillogue 6 days ago; known in 3 days.

Trump war with China, Trump removal, or delayed/non-existent elections by 2020. Details in comments. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-20; known in 4 days.

Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by LukeS on 2020-11-14; known in 4 days.

My average estimated sleep time for week of Jan 16th will be 8 hours or greater ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iterate-again 3 days ago; known in 5 days.

2021 Portuguese presidential election – Abstention higher than 50% ( 60% confidence )

Created by LouisLC on 2020-06-06; known in 7 days.

Trump's investigation into illegal voting will report at least 500,000 illegal votes cast in the 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by regex on 2017-01-25; known in 7 days.

Hungary will open borders before February ( 10% confidence )

Created by MartaK on 2020-11-02; known in 13 days.

I receive a job offer from radix.bio ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technillogue on 2020-12-10; known in 13 days.

COVID, UK – Scotland has a return to in-person education in schools before the start of February. ( 40% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 14 days ago; known in 14 days.

Politics, US – Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-05; known in 14 days.

“If present trends continue, over the next ten years almost $500 billion of Title IV loans will have been funneled to this industry. We estimate total defaults of $275 billion, and because of fees associated with defaults, for profit students will owe $3 ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known in 14 days.

A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by krazemon on 2020-06-28; known in 14 days.

Joe Biden is physically present in the Oval Office on one or more days between Jan 20, 2021-Jan 31, 2021 ( 55% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-23; known in 14 days.

COVID, UK – At least five million doses of vaccine have been administered before the end of January 2021 in the UK. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 14 days ago; known in 14 days.

I will graduate in the end of the year ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known in 14 days.

If Trump looses the electoral college votes, he will give up his post normally in January ( 91% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known in 14 days.

At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to IDinsight's beneficiary preferences survey ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23; known in 14 days.

COVID, UK – At least ten million doses of vaccine have been administered before the end of January 2021 in the UK. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 14 days ago; known in 14 days.

Open table D&D game still going reasonably well in six months ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-02; known in 16 days.

CPC implements UBI ( 24% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-04; known in 17 days.

PAP becomes privatized and murders former shenzenites ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-04; known in 17 days.

My grades in this semester will be 5-s (equivalents of A), with at most two exceptions, ( 80% confidence )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-28; known in 23 days.

I will make an appointment/ask to make an appointment with a therapist by 15th Feb 2021 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by iterate-again 3 days ago; known in 28 days.

COVID, UK – 13 million people have been vaccinated (at least one dose) by the 15th of February, in line with government targets. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 8 days ago; known in 29 days.

SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-02-22.

I will weigh 205 or more in the morning ( 75% confidence )

Created by pdf on 2020-09-25; known on 2021-02-22.

'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' —ivan ( 62% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25.

I will make at least 3 and resolve at least 3 predictions (on predictionbook or another prediction app/site) in each full week in feb ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by iterate-again 4 days ago; known on 2021-03-01.

My daylio monthly average mood for Feb 2021 will be +0.5 or greater (on usual scoring system) ( 2% confidence )

Created by iterate-again 3 days ago; known on 2021-03-01.

The total number of deaths for at least one week in the Florida 2020-2021 flu season (as reported at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) will exceed 5,603. ( 90% confidence )

Created by gmcculley on 2020-09-03; known on 2021-03-01.

1-bed rent in Manhattan is at least 1% lower than it was in March 2019 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pdf on 2020-10-05; known on 2021-03-01.