[Politics] Afghanistan to hold presidential elections as (re)scheduled on July 20, 2019 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known in 4 days.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for June 2019 to exceed 110 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known in 8 days.

[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 2 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known in 9 days.

[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the top contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known in 9 days.

[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 3 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known in 9 days.

Fed cut rate at least 25bps in July ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by objclone 29 days ago; known in 14 days.

If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jprettner 20 days ago; known in 15 days.

[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through July EOM ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known in 15 days.

[Personal] I will get a dog before July EOM ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known in 15 days.

[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for second Democratic primary debate ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known in 15 days.

[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known in 15 days.

Before 1 August 2019, Facebook announces that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO. Leave of a absence counts. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known in 15 days.

[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known in 15 days.

Politics, US – In Madison v. Alabama, the Supreme Court rules that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known in 15 days.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in July for which data are published ( 60% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known in 15 days.

Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings on or before the 31st of July 2019. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known in 15 days.

[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known in 15 days.

[US Politics] Democratic candidates participating in the July debate to outnumber those participating in the June debate ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-12; known in 15 days.

[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known in 15 days.

I will still think Ouroboros is a bad design in six months ( 70% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2019-02-01; known in 15 days.

[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in July 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known in 15 days.

TSLA Q2 2019 net income will be $150M or less. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-02; known in 15 days.

Microsoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known in 16 days.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for June 2019 to exceed 50% ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known in 19 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 21 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 21 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 21 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 21 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 21 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 21 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 21 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 21 days.

The predictionbook user 'Cato' will NOT be active here (less than 1 wage/week) by Aug 10th, 2019 (3 months later). ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by minerjamon on 2019-05-10; known in 24 days.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known in 24 days.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known in 24 days.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2019 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known in 24 days.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known in 24 days.

Launch bookshare on ios with good design ( 70% confidence )

Created by Cliffw 3 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known in 28 days.

[Commodities] As of August 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of July 2019 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known in 28 days.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known in 28 days.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known in 28 days.

Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 31 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known in 29 days.

Soyuz MS-14 to launch as scheduled on August 22, 2019 ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-08-22.

there will be a non-hype blackpoolhotelgate (non-hype being roughly that the customers are unhappy about things not being run well/the owner being incompetent, and not including [only people uninvolved discoursing about it]) ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Somni on 2018-08-23; known on 2019-08-22.

Josh Sokol-Rubenstein can correctly recall the hooks for LABELLA, GLABELLA, and FLABELLA in OSPD5 tournament Scrabble, upon seeing this prediction in 2 years. ( 45% confidence )

Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-23; known on 2019-08-23.

I can correctly recall the hooks for LABELLA, GLABELLA, and FLABELLA in OSPD5 tournament Scrabble, upon seeing this prediction in 2 years. ( 10% confidence )

Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-23; known on 2019-08-24.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for July 2019 to exceed 110 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-25.

Chinese government to limit or tax exports of rare earths to the US by 2019-08-30 ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31.

US to conduct nuclear weapons test by 2019-08-30 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31.