I will launch a landing page for onashirt in the next 6 months ( 60% confidence )

Created by mala on 2017-03-20; known in about 6 hours.

I will do a postgrad degree in neuroscience or cognitive science in 2017-18 ( 34% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known in about 14 hours.

I will do a postgrad degree in computer science in 2017-18 ( 22% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known in about 14 hours.

I will do a postgrad degree in philosophy in 2017-18 ( 31% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known in about 14 hours.

I will do a postgrad degree in anthropology in 2017-18 ( 8% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known in about 14 hours.

I have a job different from the one I had on 6/25/17. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25; known in 1 day.

by age 6 months, my baby's eyes will be hazel or grey/green ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by taryneast on 2017-06-02; known in 1 day.

by age six months, my baby's eyes will still be blue ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by taryneast on 2017-06-02; known in 1 day.

A minecraft-style MMO (simple sandbox game supporting > 500 players) will launch within 5 years ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known in 6 days.

“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known in 6 days.

No paper primarily about Geoff Anders' Connection Theory will be published in a peer-reviewed psychology journal in the next 5 years. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-27; known in 8 days.

LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known in 11 days.

I will not complain to Uhaul or my insurance company about damage to/theft of the contents of my Uboxes ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known in 11 days.

1.39$/L gas in tbay ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 11 days ago; known in 12 days.

I go to Burning Man 2017 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-29; known in 12 days.

The bill titled “The El Chapo Act” will be signed into law by Trump ( 70% confidence )

Created by Dapple on 2017-04-27; known in 12 days.

There'll be press report of significant protest in China in the next 5 years against anti-Chinese video released on the internet. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known in 12 days.

Personal, Business Interactions – I receive a gift card or cash card containing a signup bonus from BT sometime before the end of September 2017. ( 25% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known in 12 days.

Trump approval rating > 39% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known in 12 days.

Trump approval rating < 37% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known in 12 days.

The iPhone 8 will have a 120hz 'ProMotion' screen ( 50% confidence )

Created by Oliver Carefull on 2017-06-27; known in 12 days.

intel 10nm 'tick' release ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known in 12 days.

I will lose 5 lbs by the end of September (updated: wrote kg, but meant lbs…oops) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known in 12 days.

GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors donating less than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $20 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $13 million. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known in 13 days.

GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors excluding Good Ventures who donate more than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $50 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $27 million (plus money with uncertain attribution). ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known in 13 days.

I will not get SJS from modafinil ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known in 14 days.

The US federal government to shut down before October 2nd ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known in 14 days.

D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 5 years ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known in 17 days.

I will start a PhD program within the next five years. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by amitpamin on 2012-10-10; known in 20 days.

I will start working for pay during the next 3 months ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known in 26 days.

Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by phreeza on 2016-01-07; known in 27 days.

I go on a weeklong+ road trip by the end of September 2017 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known in 27 days.

Theranos will be given FDA approval for the majority of their finger prick blood tests. The FDA have already approved the herpes test, and I predict that the FDA will go on to approve (most of) the remainder of the tests submitted by Theranos. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rhiannon on 2015-10-16; known in 27 days.

I go to the Digital Identity summit 2017 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-24; known in 27 days.

Trump does not refer to Charlottesville Car Attack on protesters as a “Terrorist Attack” or those who did it as “Terrorists” ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-12; known in 28 days.

I am still working at the same company as I was when making this prediction. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-10-20; known on 2017-10-20.

AFD will get >10% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23.

AFD will get <30% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23.

[Bundestagswahl 2017] it will end in a GroKo ( 70% confidence )

Created by MrBubu 25 days ago; known on 2017-10-24.

[Bundestagswahl 2017] Linke wird unter den Grünen liegen ( 60% confidence )

Created by MrBubu 25 days ago; known on 2017-10-24.

[Bundestagswahl 2017] Merkel bleibt Kanzlerin ( 80% confidence )

Created by MrBubu 25 days ago; known on 2017-10-24.

A airplane hangar foam-fire-protection system on the planet will save >= 33% of an airplane's present value from loss due to fire-the-airplane-is-intimate-with-from-fire's-inception over next 5 years. validated by owner, witnesses or local fire brigade. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by eurekaignem on 2012-10-26; known on 2017-10-27.

Las Malvinas to be liberated by Argentina. ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-10-27.

Donald Trump will not ride in the Queen's carriage during a visit to the UK in October 2017. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pvoberstein on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-10-30.

I will be able to do a muscle up by end of October ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31.

I will be able to do a one armed pull up by the end of October ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31.

I will be able to pull up 50% of my body weight by the end of October ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31.

Angela Merkel bleibt bis zur nächsten regulären Bundestagswahl 2017 im Amt ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Shevek on 2016-02-05; known on 2017-11-01.

Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-11-01.

I will change careers into some kind of software development job by Winter 2017 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-11-01.