Trump becoming President in 2025. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known in 1 day.

Fraction of U.S GDP devoted to computer and electronics hardware will be higher than 5%(from 1.5% now) by 2025 according to BEA data ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-09-17; known in 4 days.

The British Labour Party will not win the next general election. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-27; known in 5 days.

It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known in 8 days.

A bad thing happens, and President Trump and the intelligence community publicly disagree about whether it was caused by terrorists. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by HonoreDB on 2017-01-30; known in 10 days.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.773 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known in 11 days.

The Biden administration officially claims that Russia has attempted to interfere in the 2024 US presidential election ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-30; known in 11 days.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] < .608 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known in 11 days.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.650 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known in 11 days.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.910 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known in 11 days.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.973 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known in 11 days.

The debt ceiling suspension is extended beyond 2025 ( 35% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-10; known in 12 days.

Biden loses the 2024 presidential election ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-15; known in 12 days.

World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known in 13 days.

Russia uses a tactical nuclear warhead in the Ukraine war between Nov 2023 – Feb 2025. ( 62% confidence )

Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known in 25 days.

joe biden dies in presidency ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2025-02-26.

The IUCN will report >=9000 critically endangered species as of march 1 2025 (currently ~6800) ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by finback on 2020-08-21; known on 2025-03-01.

The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by regex on 2017-03-12; known on 2025-03-12.

Next US recession to be 66% or less than the drop in GDP of the great recession, to take place no earlier than 2018. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by nazgul76 on 2015-03-18; known on 2025-03-18.

Artificial intelligence radically disrupts the global economy within 2 years ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by sjy on 2023-03-28; known on 2025-04-01.

Q3 2023 recession by NBER ( 95% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-23; known on 2025-04-01.

AI x-risk is supported by right-wing US political actors, conditional on it becoming a sufficiently mainstream political issue and ignoring roughly bipartisan consensus ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-10; known on 2025-04-10.

Despite all the China and North Korea fears, Pakistan and India will cause WW3 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jase9r on 2011-04-24; known on 2025-04-24.

I will never have kids ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mishell103 on 2015-04-25; known on 2025-04-25.

E. Yudkowsky will coauthor a book with gwern. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.

gwern branwen will change his personal pronouns from he/him to they/them. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-27; known on 2025-04-28.

Gwern is Jim Babcock. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.

Gwern is still living with his relatives. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-28; known on 2025-04-29.

The identity of gwern branwen will be revealed to the public by 2025. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-27; known on 2025-04-29.

I will reach 200,000 lifetime book sales by May 2025 (currently 104k) ( 50% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-04-26; known on 2025-05-01.

Sam will complete his PhD. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2025-05-04.

lawsuits aimed at bankrupting LGBT organizations. this is currently happening in the UK, and i anticipate it will be exported to the US as a strategy, in the next 3 years. ( 78% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2025-05-08.

262c5d5c74f33d44712251134f833ccad5ebaa9327aa759951fd3073063ab5d4 - ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.

e5457decad6d1248430258b145bd1418cf6229b9e545e0282ab9a192d3b5491e - ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.

>= 10% of California IT workers unionized by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by entropy on 2015-05-10; known on 2025-05-10.

[ Law Enforcement, Celebrity, Musician ] Tekashi69 (AKA Tekashi 6ix9ine) (Daniel Hernandez) (born May 8, 1996) to have an act of murder or attempted murder committed against him ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2020-05-10; known on 2025-05-11.

Bharat will grow 10% in real GDP terms year on year from 2015-25. That will take Bharat from a 2.3 trillion USD nominal economy to 10.3 trillion dollar economy in 10 years, where Zhonghua is currently.In PPP terms Bharat will be the 2nd biggest economy. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-11; known on 2025-05-12.

Within 8 months of serial research, a competent team can find a “secret spilling” steering vector which gets a smart model to give up in-context secrets across a variety of situations. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-13; known on 2025-05-13.

Software engineer salaries in the United States are going to plummet to the average of the global work force within the next 24 months ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-23; known on 2025-05-15.

SLS to be launched at least once or to be canceled outright by May 15, 2025 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-05; known on 2025-05-16.

I in 2 years ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-07-01; known on 2025-05-22.

Hackerone will paid out $1 billion on the 23th of May, 2025 ( 80% confidence )

Created by smodnix on 2020-05-28; known on 2025-05-23.

2025 there will be about 2.7 billion with excess weight, up from 2 billion in 2010. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-10; known on 2025-05-28.

RuPay (रूपे) and China UnionPay (中国银联) will surpass Visa and Mastercard as a payment network. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2025-05-28.

Extreme poverty(WB definition 1.90 per day) to be eliminated by 2025. Poverty declined from 36 % in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 9.6%, as of 2015. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2025-05-28.

Biden wins the 2024 US presidential election, according to the New York Times ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-05; known on 2025-06-01.

Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JohnWittle on 2016-02-17; known on 2025-06-01.

Subwoolfer is Ylvis ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Deepak on 2022-06-12; known on 2025-06-12.

I will get compensation >= $3k within next 8 years because of my arrest at the protest #no_research ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2025-06-13.

A nationwide effort to legalize polygamy ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by elmerfudd1 on 2013-03-26; known on 2025-06-20.