RM Team switch by 18 Nov 2018. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by amrav on 2017-11-19; known in about 22 hours.

Novak Djokovic will finish year-end ATP number 1 in 2018 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gurgus on 2017-11-22; known in 3 days.

Either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal will finish ATP year-end number 1 in 2018 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gurgus on 2017-11-22; known in 3 days.

Zerocoin market cap >$7,700,000,000 within 5 years (conditional on launch) ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known in 5 days.

Zerocoin market cap >$7,000,000 within 5 years (conditional on launch) ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known in 5 days.

Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known in 5 days.

Any of Eva Ask/Jyrki Katainen/François Hollande/Barack Obama/Ben Bernanke/Keith Alexander/James Clapper killed within 5 years. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known in 6 days.

ronit and somni will coordinate next week ( 25% confidence )

Created by Somni about 11 hours ago; known in 7 days.

[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known in 11 days.

[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 10 seconds ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known in 11 days.

[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 20 seconds ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known in 11 days.

[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 40 seconds ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known in 11 days.

[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 1 minute and 26 seconds (the time it ran out in 2017) ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known in 11 days.

[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 3 minutes ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely 5 days ago; known in 11 days.

Magnus Carlsen remains World Chess Champion in 2018 ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu 7 days ago; known in 12 days.

Tech – Bloomberg substantially retracts their story alleging Chinese infiltration of Apple and Amazon via compromised hardware before the end of November 2018. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 28 days ago; known in 14 days.

Fewer than 63 'ThinSats' from Twiggs Space Lab will be launched on the Autumn Antares in 2018. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26; known in 14 days.

W3C VCTF goes to CR ( 41% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30; known in 14 days.

Politics, US – David Trone is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle on the 1st of December 2018. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir 13 days ago; known in 14 days.

Politics, US – Beto O'Rourke is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle out of Senate candidates on the 1st of December 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 13 days ago; known in 14 days.

Politics – Ashiq Masih is granted asylum in the UK, Canada, or US before the start of December. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir 13 days ago; known in 14 days.

Personal – I have either run a board gaming meetup in the two weeks before or have one scheduled for the two weeks after the 1st of December. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 9 days ago; known in 14 days.

Personal – I am either continuing with or have completed my Neuroscience course on Coursera as of 2018-12-01. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known in 14 days.

Personal – I have completed at least one Anki card on five of the seven days prior to 2018-12-01 ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-08; known in 14 days.

Personal – I have some kind of cloud service invoking ML Engine to generate a list of its own probability assignments by end of November 2018. ( 87% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-17; known in 14 days.

Personal – I have mended at least one item of clothing via sewing before 2018-12-01. ( 25% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-17; known in 14 days.

No major attack attributable to Anonymous leading to mass death or @BiellaColeman still agrees “Anonymous are not terrorists” ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-24; known in 14 days.

Personal – I still have a weekly cycle out as a goal for the week starting 2018-12-03. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-12; known in 16 days.

The 2018 Safra conference on AI is open to the public ( 90% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-07-02; known in 16 days.

given S continues taking s in the next three months, they will blackout at least once in the next three months. will return inconclusive if the supposition is false. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Somni on 2018-09-04; known in 17 days.

Bharat's fiscal deficit will come to down to 3% of GDP in 3 years: 3.9% GDP in 2015-16, 3.5% in 2016-17 3% 2017-18. ( 95% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known in 20 days.

World Bank predicts Bharat will have sub 8% growth for 3 years. 7.5% 2015-16,7.8% 2016-17, and 7.9% 2017-18. ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known in 20 days.

[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu 19 days ago; known in 21 days.

[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Jens Spahn ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by amadeu 19 days ago; known in 21 days.

[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Armin Laschet ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by amadeu 19 days ago; known in 21 days.

[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Friedrich Merz ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by amadeu 19 days ago; known in 21 days.

[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Other ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by amadeu 19 days ago; known in 21 days.

Bharat will lead the world in 4G. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-01; known in 24 days.

There won't be any team from Russia in Champions League play-offs in 2018 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Stommelen on 2018-10-03; known in 26 days.

The Hometrack London house price index will be lower by the end of 2018 than today ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known in 29 days.

Helmut Schmidt to become a centenarian ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known in 29 days.

I will have a new phone in 24 months (current MI3W) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-12-21.

Consumer-level “Trans cranial magnetic stimulation orgasmatron” (TMS device capable of producing orgasm ) hits the market ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-12-24.

Bharat Biotech will develop the first Zika vaccine by 2018. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-13; known on 2018-12-25.

US real GDP growth rate for 2018 will be under 2.0% ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2018-12-25.

Bill Gates “Digital transactions will rise to 50% of India's GDP in the next 2-3 years”. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known on 2018-12-25.

Ari Paul's $50k strike Bitcoin calls will expire in the money ( 5% confidence )

Created by ambisinister on 2017-12-24; known on 2018-12-28.

Tech – Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization be on 28 December 2018 is between $360 billion and $430 billion. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir 6 days ago; known on 2018-12-29.

A leak or source from inside the NSA indicates that a surveillance program forbidden after today by the Supreme Court, another federal court, or act of congress has continued with little to no disruption ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by tedks on 2013-12-29; known on 2018-12-29.

I will weigh 60kg+ ( 50% confidence )

Created by arun on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-12-30.